96L for Caribbean System

[Scott_inVA]

I posted a "quickie" in Tropical Analysis concerning the 0Z looking more legit than the 18Z the GFDL is based on. Still IF there is development I doubt it comes in TX.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[senorpepr]

Actually, I was going to say maybe a slight westward shift.

[Stratosphere747]

These are great plots for something that is no more than a tropical wave.....

[Eyes2theSkies]

did ya all notice the ukmet at the bottom of the screen...lol

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050703 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050703 0000 050703 1200 050704 0000 050704 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 84.9W 18.6N 86.6W 19.7N 88.5W 21.1N 90.6W
BAMM 17.8N 84.9W 18.6N 86.6W 19.7N 88.5W 21.0N 90.5W
A98E 17.8N 84.9W 18.6N 87.0W 19.7N 88.9W 21.5N 90.6W
LBAR 17.8N 84.9W 18.7N 86.9W 20.1N 89.0W 21.8N 91.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 30KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050705 0000 050706 0000 050707 0000 050708 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.9N 92.5W 25.8N 95.2W 28.0N 96.3W 30.2N 95.5W
BAMM 22.6N 92.4W 25.2N 95.8W 27.4N 98.2W 29.0N 99.9W
A98E 23.9N 92.4W 27.6N 95.9W 30.6N 96.5W 33.8N 90.3W
LBAR 23.6N 92.6W 27.6N 94.3W 30.4N 92.1W 31.7N 86.8W
SHIP 54KTS 66KTS 68KTS 68KTS
DSHP 39KTS 50KTS 36KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 84.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 82.8W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 80.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[skysummit]

did ya all notice the ukmet at the bottom of the screen...lol

Yea, it really has its hands on the system heh? LOL

[cycloneye]

did ya all notice the ukmet at the bottom of the screen...lol

That may by for invest 93E in EPAC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It will likely be over the Yact for 16 hours. So the quastion is will it make it?

[Ivanhater]

i wonder why most bend back east before landfall?

[senorpepr]

did ya all notice the ukmet at the bottom of the screen...lol

That may by for invest 93E in EPAC.

I believe so as well...

Code: Select all

WTNT80 EGRR 021711

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.07.2005

   TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 11.9N  96.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.07.2005  11.9N  96.5W     WEAK
 00UTC 03.07.2005  12.3N  96.8W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.07.2005  13.1N  97.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.07.2005  14.3N  97.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.07.2005  14.6N  98.9W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.07.2005  15.3N  99.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.07.2005  15.7N 101.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.07.2005        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 021711


[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The yact has distroyed/Weaken alot stronger then this. I expect it will be a tropical wave by the time it makes it back over water.

[Derek Ortt]

yeah David, I has to mention C and A, that terrible twosome (I also meant drought relief, trying to post quickly before leaving the office)


Cannot see this being more intense than those two. GOM really isnt the most favorable place for weak systems to explode quickly, unlike the NW Carib. Remember, Alicia and Bret took 3 full days to get going, and Bret had to cross an eddy, in contrast to Mitch that only took 2 in the Carib while fighting shear, or Irene that went right away. This isn't going to have 3 full days in the GOM and doesn't appear as if there is going to be significant Carib development, which is why I am leaning toward a moderate TS (Earl got going quicker in 1998, but it was blown up by QG dynamics, which this isn't going to have aiding it)

[Radar]

Well, I would much rather have a moderate T.S. to track then a hurricane anyway. Just hoping the rain goes to areas that really need it (crossing fingers that they dont get too much rain) and that the winds are minimal!

[HouTXmetro]

It looks a mess, I just don't see how this can develop being so close to the Yucatan.

[Anonymous]

yeah David, I has to mention C and A, that terrible twosome (I also meant drought relief, trying to post quickly before leaving the office)


Cannot see this being more intense than those two. GOM really isnt the most favorable place for weak systems to explode quickly, unlike the NW Carib. Remember, Alicia and Bret took 3 full days to get going, and Bret had to cross an eddy, in contrast to Mitch that only took 2 in the Carib while fighting shear, or Irene that went right away. This isn't going to have 3 full days in the GOM and doesn't appear as if there is going to be significant Carib development, which is why I am leaning toward a moderate TS (Earl got going quicker in 1998, but it was blown up by QG dynamics, which this isn't going to have aiding it)

The only thing is...this IMO will be a TD/TS by the time it enters the Gulf...if it makes the turn to the north south of TX/LA Border, waters are warmer than a hot tub. I would think 80-90 mph atleast by landfall given the favorable pattern.

[Ivanhater]

what do you mean derek, storms dont rapidly intensify in the gulf? opal and charley are just some off the top of my head, and that goes against what many professionals believe from what ive heard.

[drezee]

lili too

[Anonymous]

If the models pan out, and this system moves west-northwest, then a curve north, we are looking at alot of hot water and low shear.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The thing is it has to go over the Yact first. Which has weaken if not distroyed stronger. If this thing reopens back into a wave the chance of it redeveloping are normally not high. So once back into the Gulf is when we have to start watching. If it would develop a defined LLC/Tropical storm before landfall then I would be more impressed with its.

Also to note the 950 level of the Gfs shows it heading westward with a sharp northward turn.

[Agua]

"Hello, welcome to McCanes, would you like rain with that order?"

Cute.