When will 96L be classified as a TD?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 5:19 pm

I go with tommorow afternoon at 5 PM.

#2 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 5:25 pm

Better add some later times. It may still be over land by late Monday morning. I'd pick Monday night or Tuesday morning.

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 5:26 pm

Tomorrow at 5pm E, getting ready to move through the Yucatan Channel.

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 5:28 pm

wxman57 wrote:Better add some later times. It may still be over land by late Monday morning. I'd pick Monday night or Tuesday morning.

I added the 5 AM EDT and 11 AM EDT hours of tuesday.

Derek Ortt · #5 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 5:30 pm

based upon the model guidance, maybe not until it is 6-12 hours prior to making final landfall.

we could end up with a Bret scenario, but in the USA, a rapidly developing weak storm at the coast

AL Chili Pepper · #6 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 5:38 pm

11AM Sunday.

AL Chili Pepper · #7 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 5:41 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Tomorrow at 5pm E, getting ready to move through the Yucatan Channel.

I don't think this one's going to make the channel. You never know though, stranger things have happened.

#8 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 5:43 pm

Monday at 5AM. No reason. Just tomorrow seems a little soon.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #9 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 5:46 pm

I doubt it will happen before Sun 5pm EDT. I find it hard, looking at satellite now and what is expect over the next 24 hours, that this will be upgraded until AFTER recon fixes a center, which will be around 4pm EDT on Sunday.

#10 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 5:49 pm

Take a look at this new pic from our floater. I've identified low-cloud motions with yellow arrows and general motion with the white arrow. Doesn't look like it's heading for the Yucatan Channel to me. It's only 180 nautical miles from the Yucatan, heading at around 275-280 degrees, and at a speed close to 15 kts. That puts it inland over the Yucatan between sunrise and noon Sunday.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/carib11.gif">

#11 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 6:11 pm

wxman57 - I agree that is where the most low level turning is now...but if this thing does develop...I do not believe that will be the eventual LLC. If this system is to go...it will develop further north...not on the southern edge of the wave. I think some of the energy will go south into Mexico...and some will go NW into the GOM. That's why I go for a later time on the formation...it will take some time to get it's act together once this occurs. I said yesterday that I didn't look for this to become a TD until it was around 90W...that maybe a little too far west...but I think it will be in the SE GOM before it develops.

#12 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 6:17 pm

Air Force Met wrote:wxman57 - I agree that is where the most low level turning is now...but if this thing does develop...I do not believe that will be the eventual LLC. If this system is to go...it will develop further north...not on the southern edge of the wave. I think some of the energy will go south into Mexico...and some will go NW into the GOM. That's why I go for a later time on the formation...it will take some time to get it's act together once this occurs. I said yesterday that I didn't look for this to become a TD until it was around 90W...that maybe a little too far west...but I think it will be in the SE GOM before it develops.

I assume you meant SW GOM not "SE GOM" for likely development. I'd agree with that. So development will not likely occur until it moves west of the Yucatan on Monday. I still think the center would form toward the southern end of the wave, though, similar to Bret earlier last week.

#13 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 6:25 pm

Nope...SE GOM...the area south of 25...and east of 90...closer to the yuk... I do not see the southern end developing. I think it continues west. If it doesn't break apart and the southern end becomes dominate...and thus takes all the energy...then this thing doesn't develop at all.

Time will tell.

#14 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:22 pm

My SWAG is Monday at 11AM.

wxboy · #15 Postby **wxboy** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:24 pm

I think 5 AM tomorrow. It really looks good right now. Just a little dry to the southwest.

#16 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:25 pm

Monday 11 a.m. BOC.

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 11:14 am

Bump.Those who voted Sunday at 5 PM are looking very good now.

Ixolib · #18 Postby **Ixolib** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 3:31 pm

... and even better now - only a few minutes off!!

southerngale · #19 Postby **southerngale** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 3:32 pm

I just voted. 8-)

hehe j/k

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #20 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Jul 03, 2005 3:38 pm

southerngale wrote:I just voted.

hehe j/k

You're such a goof...