LLC forming?

[raynpa]

Looking at the latest visible sat. it appears to have a low level circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

[Wpwxguy]

I agree that it appears evident on visible imagery. We just need some verification from surface observations in the area. There is a well defined circulation if you ask me, also the thunderstorms are continuing to fire and are looking a little more impressive in the last hour or so. It is well on its way to a depression. IMO

[skysummit]

If there is some sort of circulation, it looks to me as it's moving almost due west.

[AL Chili Pepper]

The close up visual animation at http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
does seem to show some circuation around 83W 18N and some better organization with the thunderstorms. I can see a depression forming before crossing the YP. It'll be interesting to see what happens after that.

[miamistorm]

Looking at the satellite signiture from this morning to its current image shows organization. This system is coming together and tomorrow we have the plane...should be interesting.

[sunflowerkist]

The close up visual animation at http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
does seem to show some circuation around 83W 18N and some better organization with the thunderstorms. I can see a depression forming before crossing the YP. It'll be interesting to see what happens after that.

I think I see two possible areas of spin. Is that an optical illusion? One near the Yucatan and one closer to the Cuba Jamaica Area.

[wxman57]

To me, the area to watch is now (5:30pm CDT) near 17.8N/85W. It's moving pretty quickly to about 280 deg. Cloud elements near the surface around 17.5N/84W are definitely moving northward.

[Ivanhater]

you think its taking a more northerly track now wxman?

[vbhoutex]

IF there is a spin in the lower levels it is at 17.5N, 82.5W or very close to that. And I do mean IF!!!

That being said, it is becoming quite obvious that something is trying very hard to come together in that region before it makes it into the Yucatan Peninsula. I wll be following this disturbance very closely to wherever it ends up in whatever condition it ends up!!!

[AL Chili Pepper]

The close up visual animation at http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
does seem to show some circuation around 83W 18N and some better organization with the thunderstorms. I can see a depression forming before crossing the YP. It'll be interesting to see what happens after that.

I think I see two possible areas of spin. Is that an optical illusion? One near the Yucatan and one closer to the Cuba Jamaica Area.

Just to the south of the main convection. It may bid a little south of 18N.

[wxman57]

It's easier to show you what I'm looking at. Here's a recent satellite picture. We're generating these every 30 minutes. Helps to have the lat/lon lines on the pictures.

The low cloud elements near 17.5N/84W are definitely moving northward. I've indicated apparent low-cloud motions with the yellow arrows. So the place to watch looks to be around 17.5 to 17.8N and nearing 85W as of 5:24pm CDT. Movement appears to be 275-280 degrees at a good 15 kts. At that speed, it'll reach the Yucatan Peninsula (180nm away) between 18N and 19N in around 12 hours (by sunrise Sunday). It could slow down a bit, though, and not reach land until later Sunday morning. I see no evidence of a NW motion.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/carib11.gif">

[Ivanhater]

wow! great picture, she really isnt wasting any time!

[tailgater]

I see what your talking about 57 but I also think there's Circ. at 19.0N 84.0W but it's harder to see with cloud cover. We'll see which one becomes the dominate one if any

[wxman57]

I see what your talking about 57 but I also think there's Circ. at 19.0N 84.0W but it's harder to see with cloud cover. We'll see which one becomes the dominate one if any

All cloud elements between 18N and 19N along 84W appear to be moving to the W-WSW. I can't see any evidence of an LLC near 19N.

[tw861]

The may be a mid level spin also just to the southwest of western Jamaica. Near the thunderstrom complex that has persisted all day. Definitely nothing low level there though.

[wxman57]

Here's a new surface plot with a pretty poor visible satellite image overlaid (it's my VPN connection at home). As you can see, straight southeast winds west of Jamaica across that system with an apparent mid-level turning.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/carib12.gif">

[Steve H.]

WX57, you're dipiction of where the LCC is incorrect. The convection is now moving over the center of circulation. I think it was tailgator who got it right.

[wxman57]

WX57, you're dipiction of where the LCC is incorrect. The convection is now moving over the center of circulation. I think it was tailgator who got it right.

Where would that be, Steve? Surfac obs southwest of Jamaica are all from the southeast and have been all day. When I analyze the satellite picture I ignore any mid and high clouds and only focus on the low-level cumulus movement - closest to the surface. Of course, we can't see those cloud elements below the cirrus canopy beneath the heavier convection.

[tw861]

WX57, you're dipiction of where the LCC is incorrect. The convection is now moving over the center of circulation. I think it was tailgator who got it right.

wxman57 has a pretty strong case for his llc, but I'm going for a broader circulation eventually consolidating further north near the convection.

The area southwest of Jamaica is definitely a MLC. I guess it could work its way down though given time.

Really just a lot of speculation right now until something takes hold.

[Steve H.]

The LCC you had marked in red moving west is a smaller vorticity within the whole circulation....it will peter out. the main circulation is further NE, to the west of Jamaica and south of western Cuba. It is rather broad but is filling in. That piece of convection SSW of Jamaica is getting sucked into the circulation. This is slowly moving to the NW, maybe North of NW. Folks in the Central/Western GOM need to watch this sucka.