96L for Caribbean System

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The models have it placed about right. The dotted line is its current movement AL.

[Wpwxguy]

Well if that is the current motion, which looks a little suspect to me then I would expect the models to pick up on that in the next run and begin the usual left and right dance. Thats a NW movement which would be the best scenario for faster development. Would anyone agree with that?

[Scott_inVA]

Model concensus and climo suggest NW near Cozumel and into western GOM off TX.

FWIW, I think a solution more in the central Gulf coast will verify.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[Agua]

And what's up with that xtrap? Isn't that supposed to be the current motion?

xtrap = extrapolated

Yes, average direction over the last 12 hours.

[cycloneye]

Model concensus and climo suggest NW near Cozumel and into western GOM off TX.

FWIW, I think a solution more in the central Gulf coast will verify.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

Scott consensus except LBAR which goes way right why it is the only one doing that?

[x-y-no]

And what's up with that xtrap? Isn't that supposed to be the current motion?

xtrap = extrapolated

Yes, average direction over the last 12 hours.

Average direction of what? I'm still just seeing a wave, albeit a sharper one with a fair amount of convection going.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There doe's appear to be a low near 18.0 north/82.5 as the models show. In a increase in overall convection. This area has also moved by what the dotted line has shown. A expect a landfall over the northeast coast of the Yact over the next 12 to 15 hours. Then it will likely move out into the Gulf by early Monday.

[AL Chili Pepper]

And what's up with that xtrap? Isn't that supposed to be the current motion?

xtrap = extrapolated

Yes, average direction over the last 12 hours.

OK, thanks..that's what I thought. I just didn't think it'd been moving NW. Guess I'll have to keep a better eye on it.

[Agua]

And what's up with that xtrap? Isn't that supposed to be the current motion?

xtrap = extrapolated

Yes, average direction over the last 12 hours.

Average direction of what? I'm still just seeing a wave, albeit a sharper one with a fair amount of convection going.

Agreed. That's why these earliest models are supposedly pretty useless. They don't even have a real center for initialization.

[Lowpressure]

This system has the typical NW Carib signature of a storm waiting to deepen quickly once LLC originates. I think someone else on this board mentioned this, but it bears repeating. Nothing to stop this system from making the 4th an interesting day weather wise for some.

[Scott_inVA]

Scott consensus except LBAR which goes way right why it is the only one doing that?

Being a barotropic model I'm guessing weakening Ridge and possible weak UL off TX. I do worry *anytime* I think a potential path is represented by the LBAR however, the EC seems to be hinting at this and will be eager to see it later. Also worth watching to see if the models do trend that way...or I'm full of balogna!

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com,
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[wxman57]

This image may help. Note the ship report at 17.1N/82.7W (in orange). It shows an east wind at 10 kts and 1012mb pressure. That position is southwest of where the models initialized. So if there IS any LLC tring to form, it's not where they initialized the models. Far as I can see, we have a wave there. Shows up very clearly on the obs. Again, the usual discaimer about the crappy satellite on VPN at home...

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/carib9.gif">

[cycloneye]

Yes agree 57 as after I saw those inciations from the models something was not right and after your as always complete explanations with the great pics you post at the forum there is no doubt the position that the models have is not the right one.Unless there is a tiny low that the garp does not see.

[Ivanhater]

what are the chances of this becoming a TD by tomorrow?

[wxman57]

what are the chances of this becoming a TD by tomorrow?

I'd say maybe 5%. Maybe less. First it needs persistent convection over a single area for 12-24 hours. Then it needs an LLC to form. But 24 hours from now it'll be over land. Most of Sunday evening through Monday morning it'll probably be over land. So the earliest TD might be Monday afternoon/evening.

[Stratosphere747]

what are the chances of this becoming a TD by tomorrow?

I'd say maybe 5%. Maybe less. First it needs persistent convection over a single area for 12-24 hours. Then it needs an LLC to form. But 24 hours from now it'll be over land. Most of Sunday evening through Monday morning it'll probably be over land. So the earliest TD might be Monday afternoon/evening.

Still looking for whatever that may possibly develop, to take more of a northly type of component towards La?

[Ivanhater]

seems like the convection has been building all day, the past few days there usually isn't any convection at this time, maybe it is sustaining

[drezee]

ship reports must always be taken with a grain of salt especially out of the blue (i.e. the first and only report of the day)

[wxman57]

what are the chances of this becoming a TD by tomorrow?

I'd say maybe 5%. Maybe less. First it needs persistent convection over a single area for 12-24 hours. Then it needs an LLC to form. But 24 hours from now it'll be over land. Most of Sunday evening through Monday morning it'll probably be over land. So the earliest TD might be Monday afternoon/evening.

Still looking for whatever that may possibly develop, to take more of a northly type of component towards La?

Most likely, any development would head for northern Mexico or the lower TX coast. It would have to develop sooner and farther north to reach the LA coast.

[tw861]

Of course things always change, but for us in the parched Houston area you have gotta love the BAMD track. Perfect setup for getting wet.

Bring it on!!!!!!