96L for Caribbean System

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm going out of town for a few days to. But if you went this season to show 1995 the door then development has to happen.

Texas needs rain so lets hope it go's that way.

[KatDaddy]

This is going to be the real deal when it gets to the GOM. Definitely need to watch this if you live along the W and N GOM.

[Anonymous]

This is going to be the real deal when it gets to the GOM. Definitely need to watch this if you live along the W and N GOM.

I hope I was able to stress that in my updates. The environment is ripe.

[x-y-no]

Still looks terribly disorganized to me. It has some significant things in its favor, though. Terrific outflow to the south, low shear environment ahead, a fair amount of convection going today, and very weak steering, which may give it time to get organized before it drifts into the Yucatan.

I can see this deserving an invest. Unless the convection keeps going overnight, though, I don't see it developing. It's pretty common for areas like this with lots of moisture and instability to flare up daytime and then die down at night. it needs to get some better convergence going at the surface to get into a self-sustaining state.

Jan

[Hurricaneman]

I agree. The enviornment is such that a hurricane could form in the next 7 days

[Droop12]

Matt, When did I ever say I want this season to be worse then 95'? Thats dumb, 95' was bad. I dont see why so many folks are rooting on the storms. I personally would like a break before another gets in the gulf.

[Anonymous]

Things can happen rapidly in the Gulf:::

[Hurricaneman]

I'm sure it's not going to be stronger than a cat 1

[southerngale]

I'm sure it's not going to be stronger than a cat 1

Great! How about a large, weak TS that comes in somewhere in Texas so that it gives all of us rain, who so desperately need it? A fairly slow mover dumping several inches of rain in Texas and Louisiana would be ideal.

A girl can dream, can't she?

[Air Force Met]

I'm sure it's not going to be stronger than a cat 1

Great! How about a large, weak TS that comes in somewhere in Texas so that it gives all of us rain, who so desperately need it? A fairly slow mover dumping several inches of rain in Texas and Louisiana would be ideal.

A girl can dream, can't she?

I'm thinking somewhere 60 miles either side of the LA/TX state line....maybe on the east side of that....but that's my guess. The environment is ripe...and the H2O temps are good. It doesn't have a lot of time. We are probably looking at a strong TS or Cat 1 if it develops. We will have to see what it looks like once it gets into the GOM.

So that is my first guess.

[Johnny]

In the tropical analysis forum Derek Ortt (as of yesterday) was pretty much writing this system away? I haven't heard his take on this since then.

[Air Force Met]

Buoy 42057 is showing wind out of the SSW.

Considering how fast it switched to the SSW, I'm thinking that an outflow boundary passed through there to cause the wind shift. We'll have to wait and see if it stays out of the SSW or if it backs back towards the east again. Looking at the satellite pic, there are a lot of tstms in that area.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050702 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050702 1800 050703 0600 050703 1800 050704 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.2N 82.5W 19.0N 84.5W 20.0N 86.8W 21.2N 89.2W
BAMM 18.2N 82.5W 19.1N 84.6W 20.2N 86.9W 21.6N 89.4W
A98E 18.2N 82.5W 19.1N 83.7W 20.0N 85.1W 20.7N 86.6W
LBAR 18.2N 82.5W 19.1N 84.1W 20.5N 86.1W 22.2N 88.2W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050704 1800 050705 1800 050706 1800 050707 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.8N 91.5W 25.5N 94.7W 27.4N 96.1W 29.6N 96.4W
BAMM 23.3N 91.7W 26.1N 95.1W 27.9N 96.9W 29.2N 98.0W
A98E 21.4N 88.3W 21.7N 91.5W 22.3N 94.7W 23.9N 97.0W
LBAR 24.2N 89.9W 28.1N 90.8W 30.8N 87.4W 32.4N 80.4W
SHIP 54KTS 59KTS 60KTS 61KTS
DSHP 44KTS 49KTS 50KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.2N LONCUR = 82.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.8N LONM12 = 81.3W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 79.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z first model plots for 96L.No grafics yet but they will be soon posted as soon they come out.

[x-y-no]

I'm sure it's not going to be stronger than a cat 1

Great! How about a large, weak TS that comes in somewhere in Texas so that it gives all of us rain, who so desperately need it? A fairly slow mover dumping several inches of rain in Texas and Louisiana would be ideal.

A girl can dream, can't she?

I'm thinking somewhere 60 miles either side of the LA/TX state line....maybe on the east side of that....but that's my guess. The environment is ripe...and the H2O temps are good. It doesn't have a lot of time. We are probably looking at a strong TS or Cat 1 if it develops. We will have to see what it looks like once it gets into the GOM.

So that is my first guess.

Wow ... OK, as the lonely naysayer around here, I may have to thaw out a helping of crow to eat in the next day or two.

Jan

[southerngale]

I'm sure it's not going to be stronger than a cat 1

Great! How about a large, weak TS that comes in somewhere in Texas so that it gives all of us rain, who so desperately need it? A fairly slow mover dumping several inches of rain in Texas and Louisiana would be ideal.

A girl can dream, can't she?

I'm thinking somewhere 60 miles either side of the LA/TX state line....maybe on the east side of that....but that's my guess. The environment is ripe...and the H2O temps are good. It doesn't have a lot of time. We are probably looking at a strong TS or Cat 1 if it develops. We will have to see what it looks like once it gets into the GOM.

So that is my first guess.

Thanks for your take on it. I'm just west of the LA/TX state line, so hopefully it will bring some much needed rain here and to my friends toward Houston and further south.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Seems that the 12Z UKMet spin up a system and have it going over around, dare I say, Pensacola. The FSUmm5 is stronger and near the same location. The Canadian has it off the LA coast in 3 days.

I guess I'll vote for Louisiana this time, like I did with Arlene. One day I'll get it right.

[cycloneye]

wxman57 do you think that the first model run for 96L has the iniciation too far north than what you have with your observations? What do you think about where they start this 18:00z run?



Here is the grafic of the first model plots for 96L.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like the Atlantic is trying to catch up with the EPAC!

[Wpwxguy]

I think its just about floater time don't ya think. After that, its Miller time! LOL

[AL Chili Pepper]

And what's up with that xtrap? Isn't that supposed to be the current motion?