Recon Plan Probably Coming Out...96L Soon?

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MWatkins
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Recon Plan Probably Coming Out...96L Soon?

#1 Postby MWatkins » Sat Jul 02, 2005 12:13 pm

It's after 1PM and there's no recon plan for tomorrow out yet...which means they are probably going to task something to go out and look tomorrow.

I mentioned that I though the system had a look...if it were October...that would concern me and that continues today. Notice there is a small ULL to the northwest of the system right now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I would expect the tropical disturbance to follow along behind the ULL...and with the ULL moving a bit faster than the disturbance behind it...the upper pattern should continue to improve.

The biggest inhibiting factor...probably...is going to be how close the system tracks to the Yucatan. IN any case...I'm a bit more optimistic on development now than I was last night. The cloud pattern...although not concentrated...has that western-caribbean-system-ready-to-get-going look to it...and with all of the 0Z models chiming in with some sort of a tropical system in the gulf...it's hard to dismiss this with wishful thinking.

I would guess that there is about a 90% chance we see recon tasked tomorrow...and a 60% chance of an invest by the end of the day today...

MW
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2005 12:32 pm

Mike when the invest is up it will be 96L instead of 95L as it was used for what became Bret. :) So I edited the title to change the number. :)

As for your observations I agree.
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#3 Postby Rainband » Sat Jul 02, 2005 12:47 pm

Figures I have to go to work soon :roll: I was off thursday and friday!! :( Ah at least florida won't have to deal with 96L :wink:
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#4 Postby MWatkins » Sat Jul 02, 2005 1:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:Mike when the invest is up it will be 96L instead of 95L as it was used for what became Bret. :) So I edited the title to change the number. :)

As for your observations I agree.


Thanks...couldn't remember which one Bret was since it didn't last very long.

Boy that didn't take very long, did it?

MW
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#5 Postby drezee » Sat Jul 02, 2005 1:03 pm

97L will not be far behind given the trend! The circulation is amazingly large and clear!
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#6 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 02, 2005 1:04 pm

I'm not suprised it's an invest area
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