Tropical Depression may be forming just E of islands...

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drezee
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Tropical Depression may be forming just E of islands...

#1 Postby drezee » Sat Jul 02, 2005 12:07 pm

Image
Last edited by drezee on Sun Jul 03, 2005 7:14 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 02, 2005 12:09 pm

It might be something to look at in the next few days
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#3 Postby skysummit » Sat Jul 02, 2005 12:10 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:It might be something to look at in the next few days


It sure may. A couple of the models pic it up.
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#4 Postby drezee » Sat Jul 02, 2005 1:01 pm

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 45W MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. THE WAVE DISPLAYS AN IMPRESSIVE SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 41W-43W. THE WAVE IS
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SAHARAN LAYER AND ASSOCIATED DUST WITH THE
LEADING EDGE ALONG 54W/55W. THIS AREA OF DUST IS SPREADING
RAPIDLY WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE WAVE NEAR 20 KT.
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#5 Postby drezee » Sat Jul 02, 2005 3:32 pm

That is 32 mph sustained winds on the N side of the Wave.


Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1944 27.4 kts E ( 85 deg true )
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2005 3:50 pm

Still for the wave to really get it's act together it has to get rid of the sal that is around.
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#7 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jul 02, 2005 4:08 pm

Here's a satellite image from our floater with lat/lon lines every 1 deg. As mentioned by NHC, convection is lacking. It'll probably be 2-3 days before development will be more likely.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/atlantic.gif">
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#8 Postby Steve H. » Sat Jul 02, 2005 5:10 pm

Looks like its coming together nicely to me. We'll have an Invest on it by tomorrow I say.
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#9 Postby Ola » Sat Jul 02, 2005 5:57 pm

Convection is lacking but that is a text book wave signal. Beautiful. That low/mid level cyclonic turning looks better than a lot of storms I have seen. Water temps are plenty warm, and like Cycloneye said, if it wasnt for the dry(sal) air around it, I would bet on development.
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#10 Postby Guest » Sat Jul 02, 2005 6:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:As mentioned by NHC, convection is lacking.


This baffles me. There is a nice area of thundershowers out there. I think when they made the statement that there were infact patchy areas but the showers are consolidating ... no?
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2005 6:48 pm

Image

Certainly the wave has increased it's convection in the past 12 hours.However it has to deal with the sal layer and subsidence that is in the area.If the sal wasn't there this would be a depression already as it is a high amplitud wave with a good cyclonic flow.

Image
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#12 Postby Scorpion » Sat Jul 02, 2005 6:58 pm

Looking good. Maybe an invest by the end of tomorrow.
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#13 Postby *StOrmsPr* » Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:05 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 022355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005



TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS ALONG 48W MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE DISPLAYS AN IMPRESSIVE SIGNATURE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. A 1010
MB LOW HAS BEEN PLACED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N48W.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 48W-53W. THE WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE
SAHARAN LAYER AND ASSOCIATED DUST WITH THE LEADING EDGE ALONG
57W. THIS AREA OF DUST IS SPREADING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AHEAD OF
THE WAVE NEAR 20 KT.
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#14 Postby dhweather » Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:28 pm

Well, if the SAL dust outruns it, that will help the system in the long run.
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#15 Postby drezee » Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:35 pm

This will be classified!
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#16 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:41 pm

Nice blob, I must admit!
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#17 Postby skysummit » Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:43 pm

Wow...that looks pretty darn awesome!
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#18 Postby msbee » Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:45 pm

that blob keeps looking better!
let's see what we shall see tomrorow!
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#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:55 pm

For sure it will be mentioned in the 10:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.
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#20 Postby drezee » Sat Jul 02, 2005 8:21 pm

I have been watching this all day. This is the best developed system in the Atlantic Basin right now (96L included). Tropical Storm watches should be raised tomorrow morning if the trend continues.
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