5:30AM TWO-DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE

[southerngale]

Thank God it's coming no where near Florida. Sorry for anybody this hits if and when it develops but we don't need it

If it's just a weak TS or simply a rainmaker and it comes this way, don't be sorry! We'll kiss you Floridians for giving it to us!

[Rainband]

Thank God it's coming no where near Florida. Sorry for anybody this hits if and when it develops but we don't need it

If it's just a weak TS or simply a rainmaker and it comes this way, don't be sorry! We'll kiss you Floridians for giving it to us!

I know you all are dry as can be

[Derek Ortt]

the correction is is that Avila said "Upper winds are forecast to become more favorable"

Nowhere did he say that the necessary low-level dynamics are more favorable. If we do not have sufficient low-level convergence, it really doesn't matter how favorable the UL winds are. Due to mass continuity, if there is not low level convergence, there is not going to be the necessary vertical velocity to cause pressures to fall

[gatorcane]

the correction is is that Avila said "Upper winds are forecast to become more favorable"

Nowhere did he say that the necessary low-level dynamics are more favorable. If we do not have sufficient low-level convergence, it really doesn't matter how favorable the UL winds are. Due to mass continuity, if there is not low level convergence, there is not going to be the necessary vertical velocity to cause pressures to fall

Whatever that means, latest satellite pictures are becoming more impressive....it looks to be on it's way to depression status soon.

[gatorcane]

Thank God it's coming no where near Florida. Sorry for anybody this hits if and when it develops but we don't need it

It looks like S. Florida will start feeling the affects of this wave with increased chances of rainfall Sun. and Mon. and steady E and SE winds should build in later this weekend...

[Derek Ortt]

the Caribbean close to a TD?


There first has to be a surface circulation, which there is not even a pronounced wind shift yet

[gatorcane]

the Caribbean close to a TD?


There first has to be a surface circulation, which there is not even a pronounced wind shift yet

I was skeptical today but tonight it definitely appears to be coming better organized - and typically the convection builds in the late night and early morning hours....it will be interesting to see if we see a big blow up in a few hours...

[Derek Ortt]

I expect the convection to increase, only to collapse late tomorrow morning until that trailing wave moves into the region

[gatorcane]

yes Derek, I agree with you...I think that is what we will see too.

[Scorpion]

*Sigh* not more rain. Can we please have a normal SUNNY summer like its supposed to be?

[gatorcane]

I can't believe all of the rain here in S. Florida...the weather patterns are not normal lately, makes you wonder if we are in store for a hurricane or two later!

[DROliver]

the correction is is that Avila said "Upper winds are forecast to become more favorable"

Nowhere did he say that the necessary low-level dynamics are more favorable. If we do not have sufficient low-level convergence, it really doesn't matter how favorable the UL winds are. Due to mass continuity, if there is not low level convergence, there is not going to be the necessary vertical velocity to cause pressures to fall

quote
"BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO"

FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT ? That doesnt quailfy as possible development?

Derek he didnt have to say any of what you have just said since he said quote"
BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO"

He never included all that in his discussion so unless you have a 4 year degree in meterology and specialize in tropical weather how could one come to that conclusion?

Again "possible development" was a valid conclusion from that and all discussions the NHC has written today.

Steve

[Portastorm]

Derek's just trying to hold up to his earlier comment that "there is about a .000001% chance of the SW Caribbean forming into a tropical cyclone. Basically no chance. "

... and so far, he's right!

[DROliver]

No his comment was on the title of this post.Derek has not yet conveyed his thoughts in a direct manner.

The only argument here is about the title, not if this BLOB will develope.

[Ed1]

Derek is wrong with his first post in this topic.

Naso posted the topic with the title:
5:30AM TWO-DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE

Dereck posted:
"the TWO does not say anywhere that development may be possible."

Now myself and anyone else can see by reading the TWO
that Naso posted it basically reads
"THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AT THIS TIME...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO"

And I take that myself as being...right now that Conditions aren't favorable but within the next day or two conditions will be favorable.

Now Derek how is the Topic Header incorrect?

[Derek Ortt]

that means exactly what it says it means "Upper wind are forecast to become favorable for some development"

That statement only relates to the upper wind field, meaning that a ridge of high pressure aloft was expected to form, which is is clearly doing so and the UL is moving NW.

Typically, the NHC states this area has some potential for development, if they feel it is going to develop within the next day or so. That exact wording has not yet been used, though if we get a convective increase when the new wave moves into the region, then we may see that wording as there is some chance at development then

[DROliver]

Well I have always interrupted that statement as possible cyclone development as I believe most do. All you had to do was say that and this argument would not have happened.

[Steve]

Even though he and I disagreed on the .000001% shot, I have to back Derek (assuming that was who I was disagreeing with earlier today). If so, he specifically noted that was for the short term.

And no, I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night but I did catch back-to-back episodes of Penn & Teller's B.S. tonight, so I am feeling pretty smart.

Steve

[Ed1]

Derek what the TWO is pertaining to is the TROPICAL WAVE

not the Upper Level Winds.

As the 10:30pm shows:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS
THIS REGION. HOWEVER...AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Where is states..
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

that is pertaing to the Tropical Wave itself.

So you're still saying ?
Your words
"TWO does not say anywhere that development may be possible."

[Derek Ortt]

as I said last night, upper winds becoming favorable for development is different from stating there is potential for development. Upper winds have become favorable for development, but we don't have the low-level dynamics necessary to further development