Here's the deal. We've got some turning in the Western Caribbean. We've got some convection that fired off of South America in a region of slightly lower pressure. We have a tropical wave that juiced that area up yesterday. So what's gonna happen? Yesterday I was going back and forth thinking that it probably wouldn't amount to much. The original key was for the TUTT to stretch out, split, and narrow. Shear would be minimized and pattern reversal dictates that a ridge should build in its place. So one of the things that had to happen for development has. Where do we go from there?
My take: Wave crosses the Yucatan and gets into the Southern Gulf/Bay of Campeche on Monday. It spins up something between a tropical surge and high-end tropical storm (no greater than 70mph). Storm comes in somewhere between LA/TX Border and NE Mexico. Best shot is between Brownsville and Port O'Connor. Eastern Texas gets some much needed rainfall with some bands wrapping around the north and east side bringing rainfall to points higher up the coast.
Caveat: Should the system take a more northerly track and affect somewhere between Port O'Connor and South Central Louisiana (e.g. St. Mary or Iberia Parishes), the system could be much stronger but probably not more than at Cat-2 at worst.
Steve
Disclaimer=The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Go on record now with what's going to happen...
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cycloneye
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Steve I edited your post to include a disclaimer. 
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Air Force Met
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Stormcenter
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Air Force Met wrote:My take is it will sent some moisture to the western GOM. I think the low levels are in such a shambles that nothing organized gets going anytime soon. Maybe once it passes 90W...and then there isn't much time left. Hopefully it will send some showers my way.
I know what you mean Air Force Met. I'm tired of watering the grass. I have a good feeling we'll get some rain from this IF it develops.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Fri Jul 01, 2005 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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wxcrazytwo
Disclaimer=The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
"System" will not even make the gulf and nothing will reform. It will definately not make it here to SE Texas, we are not due for rain until October.
"System" will not even make the gulf and nothing will reform. It will definately not make it here to SE Texas, we are not due for rain until October.
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skysummit
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I say.....
Once it gets under the western end of Cuba, the system will begin developing. It will cross just over the NE corner of the Yucantan and emerge into the Gulf. By day 2 in the Gulf, we'll have a TS around 65mph and she will turn more toward the NW. By day 3, we'll have a weak hurricane around 74 - 80mph and it will make landfall between Galveston and Lake Charles.
This is just a simple guess as I'm not basing it on anything at all
Once it gets under the western end of Cuba, the system will begin developing. It will cross just over the NE corner of the Yucantan and emerge into the Gulf. By day 2 in the Gulf, we'll have a TS around 65mph and she will turn more toward the NW. By day 3, we'll have a weak hurricane around 74 - 80mph and it will make landfall between Galveston and Lake Charles.
This is just a simple guess as I'm not basing it on anything at all
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Air Force Met
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dwg71 wrote:Disclaimer=The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
"System" will not even make the gulf and nothing will reform. It will definately not make it here to SE Texas, we are not due for rain until October.
Does the 1/2 inch I got yesterday count?
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Air Force Met wrote:dwg71 wrote:Disclaimer=The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
"System" will not even make the gulf and nothing will reform. It will definately not make it here to SE Texas, we are not due for rain until October.
Does the 1/2 inch I got yesterday count?
Here in stinkadena, we haven't even got a sniff in a month...
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wxcrazytwo
Air Force Met wrote:dwg71 wrote:Disclaimer=The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
"System" will not even make the gulf and nothing will reform. It will definately not make it here to SE Texas, we are not due for rain until October.
Does the 1/2 inch I got yesterday count?
LOL
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southerngale
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dwg71 wrote:Disclaimer=The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
"System" will not even make the gulf and nothing will reform. It will definately not make it here to SE Texas, we are not due for rain until October.
Bite your tongue!
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HURAKAN
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dwg71 wrote:Disclaimer=The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
"System" will not even make the gulf and nothing will reform. It will definately not make it here to SE Texas, we are not due for rain until October.
You may celebrate mole day with rain, 6.02 x 10^23!!!!!!!
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