Next week's GOM tropical wave.

[Stormcenter]

The good ole NWS out New Orleans, LA mentions
a tropical wave moving accross the GOM the middle
of next week, hmmmmmmm.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
215 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTING WITH A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WAS RESULTING IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AGAIN TODAY...WITH PERHAPS THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING IN AREAS
AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
HEIGHTS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING...IN COMBINATION WITH SHORT
WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN INCREASE IN
RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FOURTH OF
JULY...BUT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
[b]WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.[/b]
&&



[southerngale]

And they've already pinpointed the New Orleans area? Wow, they're good!

[dhweather]

Bring it on - RAIN FOR MS/LA/TX !!

[Steve]

>>And they've already pinpointed the New Orleans area? Wow, they're good!

As I'm sure you know, waves are typically a few hundred miles in length. It said it approaches "the area" next week. That doesn't mean hurricane impact, it just means that the moisture will likely be on the increase as it passes most likely to our south.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

And they've already pinpointed the New Orleans area? Wow, they're good!

I think they are referring to the moisture. I hope it makes as far west as to the upper Texas Coastline. As we all know we could sure use the rain.

[southerngale]

Yeah Steve, I was just kidding.

I hope it brings some rain to Texas. We need it!

[Steve]

I figured as much boss (ala the "As I'm sure you know). My thinking is that you guys are more likely to see some impact, but again, it's still too early yet. I need to go watch Mike's tropical update video to get his take.

Steve

[frederic79]

For what it's worth, here is an update on Gulf SST's based on a total of twelve offshore buoys as of 2PM today (June 30). The average temp is 84.8 degree F and the high temp is from station 42001 180 nm south of Southwest Pass, La - a whopping 87.4 degrees F. This is about 3 degrees higher than the first week in June and looks more like late July/early August SST's to me.

[gboudx]

Steve, southerngale is a bossette. When you gonna update the locals on the other board?

[Johnny]

Texas will still have this area of high pressure overhead into next week....though a weakness in it is being suspected but it will still be here.

[Stormcenter]

Texas will still have this area of high pressure overhead into next week....though a weakness in it is being suspected but it will still be here.

I hope it weakens.

[southerngale]

Steve, southerngale is a bossette. When you gonna update the locals on the other board?

Yeah, and I'm armed so be nice.

[southerngale]

Texas will still have this area of high pressure overhead into next week....though a weakness in it is being suspected but it will still be here.

All summer? In another thread, Kelarie posted something from the Austin/San Antonio NWS saying it would weaken and retrograde west.

[Portastorm]

Corpus NWS office chimes in on the issue this afternoon with ...

WITH REGARDS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS WAVE BY THE TIME IT ENTERS INTO THE COASTAL BEND TUESDAY EVENING. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE GFS MODEL WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND HANDLING OF
TROPICAL WAVES SO FAR THIS SEASON. WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

[Stormcenter]

Corpus NWS office chimes in on the issue this afternoon with ...

WITH REGARDS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS WAVE BY THE TIME IT ENTERS INTO THE COASTAL BEND TUESDAY EVENING. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE GFS MODEL WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND HANDLING OF
TROPICAL WAVES SO FAR THIS SEASON. WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

There is HOPE!!!!!!

[Portastorm]

Yes, there is some hope! Not much, but some ...

It's going on 4 weeks now here in Austin since we had any rain. After running the sprinkler on the lawn the last 2 nights, I'm just dreading my water bill ... and hoping for that dang high pressure ridge to shift westward and open up the Gulf for us!!

[Steve]

>>Steve, southerngale is a bossette. When you gonna update the locals on the other board?

What? On Saintsreport? You catch that one. I'm tired of tipping those ingreats off 5-8 days ahead of tropical action. We've nailed 2 for 2 so far this year. I'm happy with my 100% batting average several days out to 'watch the Gulf.' But my luck is bound to run out. Oh okay, you talked me into it.

As for gale being a bossette, I know she is a female. But I don't discriminate on the basis of gender. Therefore, a boss is a boss. Additionally, a feminist once told me that the "ette" suffix equates to "smaller than" or whatever. She's armed. I ain't going with no "ette".

Steve