How many Systems will form in July or none will form?

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How many systems will form in July or none will form?

1 named system will form in July
5
11%
2 named systems will form in July
17
38%
3 named systems will form in July
14
31%
4 named systems will form in July
4
9%
5 named systems will form in July
2
4%
More than 6 named systems will form in July
0
No votes
No named systems will form in July
3
7%
 
Total votes: 45
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cycloneye
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How many Systems will form in July or none will form?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:47 pm

I will go with 2 named systems in July.Remember that July is not an active month if you look at climotology however being the sst's above average warmer that may favor more activity in this month.We will see what July will bring.
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:53 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Scorpion

#2 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:52 pm

I think 3 systems.
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#3 Postby Johnny » Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:54 pm

I'm going with 3 myself.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#4 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:57 pm

2 for July...


I can't wait to read the June report on the Atlantic from the TPC. I'm waiting to see what they are going to do with that unnamed system that formed a clearly defined LLC off the East coast. Also it had reports of 38 mph winds as it was moving out/Gust to 43 mph. Very defined system in I'm guesting just as much of a cyclone as Bret. Thats my option.
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#5 Postby dhweather » Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:57 pm

I went with two, which may be low if the models verify this week.
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#6 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:57 pm

I'll say 3.
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#7 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:58 pm

I said 3, and I'm thinking 2 will be within the next 2 - 2 1/2 weeks.
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#8 Postby feederband » Thu Jun 30, 2005 3:05 pm

I say 3......Every 10 days.
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#9 Postby Trader Ron » Thu Jun 30, 2005 3:12 pm

Normally i would say zero or one. I'm going with 2 this year.

FYI. During July, in the past 51 years, there have been two years with 3 named storms, and one year with 4 named storms.
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Steve
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#10 Postby Steve » Thu Jun 30, 2005 3:25 pm

Agreed and voted with Trader Ron - caveat being if we have 2 named storms within the first week of July, numbers could be way up for the month.

Steve
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#11 Postby Trader Ron » Thu Jun 30, 2005 3:32 pm

Steve wrote:Agreed and voted with Trader Ron - caveat being if we have 2 named storms within the first week of July, numbers could be way up for the month.

Steve


Steve,

I'll let you change your prediction. I'm usually wrong. :D

Last year when Luis did the poll for August, someone said 7 named storms. I shook my head. :na: Guess how many named storms we had in August last year.
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#12 Postby Steve » Thu Jun 30, 2005 3:45 pm

Uh, 7? :D

Ultimately, it's still July and even if things are ahead of schedule, how many storms are we going to get? It ain't gonna be 7, but an anomalous number such as 4 is certainly possible.

But here's an interesting thought (or at least it is to me). If the basin matures early this year (say July=+/- August and August = +/- September), does the season shut off much earlier than usual due to the useage of available energy? I guess we wait and see what goes down.

Steve
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DoctorHurricane2003

#13 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Thu Jun 30, 2005 3:50 pm

I have an idea for a number.....I won't say it right now to be alarming....but I have a feeling that this will be a very active July.
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#14 Postby bfez1 » Thu Jun 30, 2005 3:51 pm

I voted 2 :eek:
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#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2005 3:52 pm

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:I have an idea for a number.....I won't say it right now to be alarming....but I have a feeling that this will be a very active July.


You mean 6 or more?
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Trader Ron
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#16 Postby Trader Ron » Thu Jun 30, 2005 4:10 pm

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:I have an idea for a number.....I won't say it right now to be alarming....but I have a feeling that this will be a very active July.


Come on Doc, i'm waiting with bated breath. :lol: :lol:
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#17 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Jun 30, 2005 4:58 pm

Going with 3. Gut(I have a substantial one) feeling and with all the other parameters we see out there and already 2 systems in June, I just gotta say 2.
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DoctorHurricane2003

#18 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Thu Jun 30, 2005 5:20 pm

I said 5....but that is going out on a limb for me...but 4 I wouldn't doubt at all the way things are looking.
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