Next "watch" area? Big time flare this a.m.....

[Stormcenter]

there is nothing to watch with the SW Caribbean though. Nothing is there except for disorganized convection

Isn't that how some tropical systems start out to begin with?
I don't think they all are organized from the beginning.

[Derek Ortt]

they sure don't have 10 trillion outflow boundaries in the beginning

[skysummit]

they sure don't have 10 trillion outflow boundaries in the beginning

Maybe it's trying to pick the best few? I'm still going to watch this one since it's so close to home. Plus, looking at visible, I do see the clouds on the SE corner moving North and Northeast, and the clouds on the Northern side moving West. Under the upper layers, I can even pick a few clouds on the Western side moving Southeast and East.

I'm no met, but I think it's going to have a chance down the road.

[Stormcenter]

they sure don't have 10 trillion outflow boundaries in the beginning

Obviously your betting on the Atlantic system developing.
Well I wouldn't be too much on it. The next area to look for
development will come from the Carribean. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Swimdude]

Something is definately trying to spin up there in the Caribbean. Look on the loop [see post above]... You can almost see a spin of sorts in the clouds. I wouldn't be surprised if this interrupted my flight home in a week or so in Houston...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Stormcenter, Take a look at the shear map. That is 30 knot shear over this system. The Hints of development are gone. The NAM shows a weak closed isobar at around 72 to 84 hours. But thats all. I would not bet more then a penny on this.

[Steve]

>>Obviously your betting on the Atlantic system developing.
Well I wouldn't be too much on it. The next area to look for
development will come from the Carribean. IMO

Like most others around here, I have almost no interest in the eastern wave except as a curiosity feature being that it's only June 30th. Models split down the road between a weakness and reinforcing shot of high pressure from the mid-Atlantic coast (pattern repitition). The immediate concern is the SW Caribbean ***IF*** the wave energy intersecting the area can bust the shear zone from the backing TUTT. If so, we're talking about a Mexican or US threat (possibly strong Tropical Storm range) Tuesday or Wednesday vs. something that may threaten the following weekend or early week thereafter. At the least, it's another tropical moisture surge; at worst, well Mike Naso put it pretty good on his recap of Bret yesterday. I don't think the Gulf could brew up a Cat 3, but a strong Cat 1 or Cat 2 are certainly remote possibilities.

JMO

Steve

[Stormcenter]

Stormcenter, Take a look at the shear map. That is 30 knot shear over this system. The Hints of development are gone. The NAM shows a weak closed isobar at around 72 to 84 hours. But thats all. I would not bet more then a penny on this.

\

I'll easily bet more than penny on that area. It's got the best potential down the road than anything currently in the tropics.
Which isn't saying much to begin with.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stormcenter]

>>Obviously your betting on the Atlantic system developing.
Well I wouldn't be too much on it. The next area to look for
development will come from the Carribean. IMO

Like most others around here, I have almost no interest in the eastern wave except as a curiosity feature being that it's only June 30th. Models split down the road between a weakness and reinforcing shot of high pressure from the mid-Atlantic coast (pattern repitition). The immediate concern is the SW Caribbean ***IF*** the wave energy intersecting the area can bust the shear zone from the backing TUTT. If so, we're talking about a Mexican or US threat (possibly strong Tropical Storm range) Tuesday or Wednesday vs. something that may threaten the following weekend or early week thereafter. At the least, it's another tropical moisture surge; at worst, well Mike Naso put it pretty good on his recap of Bret yesterday. I don't think the Gulf could brew up a Cat 3, but a strong Cat 1 or Cat 2 are certainly remote possibilities.

JMO

Steve

Good post Steve.

[Steve]

>>Stormcenter, Take a look at the shear map. That is 30 knot shear over this system. The Hints of development are gone. The NAM shows a weak closed isobar at around 72 to 84 hours. But thats all. I would not bet more then a penny on this.

The shear over and west of the system is meaningless except for immediate development. If the wave gets blown to smithereens, so be it. If it makes it through, forget what today's models do (most of them showing a hump/surge of tropcial moisture) because they would be essentially no different from what they did with Bret or even Arlene.

Steve

[skysummit]

For sure SOMEONE else can see some type of twist taking shape on this area, huh? I know I'm not seeing things. Pay attention to the last 3 frames. It'll probably fall apart overnight.....or......the clearing skies in this area may give way to a new thunderstorms later this evening after daytime heating. Remember, it was early this morning that this area blew up. Maybe tomorrow morning again? I'm not giving up on it!

[Stormcenter]

For sure SOMEONE else can see some type of twist taking shape on this area, huh? I know I'm not seeing things. Pay attention to the last 3 frames. It'll probably fall apart overnight.....or......the clearing skies in this area may give way to a new thunderstorms later this evening after daytime heating. Remember, it was early this morning that this area blew up. Maybe tomorrow morning again? I'm not giving up on it!

Hang in there and be patient.

[skysummit]

Hang in there and be patient.

Oh, I'm being patient...I'm just not giving up on it

[Wpwxguy]

For what its worth, there is some sort of a twist or maybe circulation down there. Not saying anything will become of it immediately, but I do think it stands a chance of becoming Cindy over the next four to five days if it holds together. Not saying it will, just my thoughts. IMO

[Stormcenter]

For what its worth, there is some sort of a twist or maybe circulation down there. Not saying anything will become of it immediately, but I do think it stands a chance of becoming Cindy over the next four to five days if it holds together. Not saying it will, just my thoughts. IMO

Yep there is a twist.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[skysummit]

For what its worth, there is some sort of a twist or maybe circulation down there. Not saying anything will become of it immediately, but I do think it stands a chance of becoming Cindy over the next four to five days if it holds together. Not saying it will, just my thoughts. IMO

Yep there is a twist.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Thank You....all I wanted to know is if I was seeing it right.

[dixiebreeze]

Dixiebreeze, agree need to keep an eye on this. Good to see you back , miss seeing your posts. Stay dry as I see you are getting more rain.

Robert

<p>Thanks, TampaFl, I'm still around -- a daughter in the hospital this week, so my posting is rather sporadic. Still think the Caribbean has something for us soon.

[dixiebreeze]

I do think something is likely to spin up here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[dixiebreeze]

And away we go folks, just I said earlier this evening:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[Radar]

It sure looks impressive, any news on IF or WHEN recon will go out?