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I have to give Joe B credit for going way out on a limb. He is not afraid of making a stand and very good at pattern recognition. My only beef is the negativity against the TPC. TPC is very serious with their work and they have strict procedures. They are very serious and precise about their work. They are damn good when it comes to forecasts and focus on saving lives. They take any potential tropical developement very serious.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
MGC wrote:I have accused the NHC of having an agenda in the past. Basically, I accused the NHC folks of naming bogus system. They (NHC) IMO were padding the numbers to get increased government funding. Simply put, more named systems more government monies for research, operations ect......MGC
Yes. They send out these recon planes and get them to send back false Vortex messages and wind reports just to Justify it too.
PLEASE! Come on! That is ridiculous. 
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Okay, everyone has had their say about Joe's NHC comments, but NO ONE has mentioned anything about the tropical outlook he presented. Does anyone have any input / insight as to whether Bastardi's scenario for a hurricane approaching the SE USA next week has any merit what-so-ever? He presents his case convincingly to the uneducated masses (me)....but is it really feasible? I would love some of the pro met's feelings about this.
--Lou
--Lou
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wxman57
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recmod wrote:Okay, everyone has had their say about Joe's NHC comments, but NO ONE has mentioned anything about the tropical outlook he presented. Does anyone have any input / insight as to whether Bastardi's scenario for a hurricane approaching the SE USA next week has any merit what-so-ever? He presents his case convincingly to the uneducated masses (me)....but is it really feasible? I would love some of the pro met's feelings about this.
--Lou
I see a similar pattern developing with this system as we had with Frances last year. Early on, it looked like Frances was going to miss the Caribbean and then turn north and head out to sea. But Frances missed the connection with the upper trof and slammed into Florida (fortunately during an eyewall replacement cycle while weaker). It's possible, if this system develops, that it might miss that trof and continue WNW toward the east U.S. coast. And if it did miss the turn, then there is a good chance it could become a very strong hurricane.
Currently, I give it about a 40-50% chance of developing and about a 70% chance of making the turn to the north if it develops.
<img src="http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/FRANCES/track.gif">
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