Florida, send some rain my way...
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Scorpion
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- Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
- Location: Lakeland Fl
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- Posts: 3423
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- Location: Lakeland Fl
The Rain Continues to Fall
Heavy rain continues to fall in much of Florida. Orlando International recorded another 1.40 inches today. A quote from the Melbourne Weather Service:
We are starting to hear media reports about area lakes nearing or exceeding their capacity. If a tropical system were to affect the state in the near future, we would likely be looking at some serious flooding statewide.
--Lou
EVENING RAINFALL AT ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PUSHED THE MONTHLY
TOTAL TO 17.04 INCHES AS OF 00Z. THIS MAKES 2005 THE 2ND WETTEST
JUNE ON RECORD...WITH ONE MORE DAY TO POSSIBLY CATCH THE WETTEST
JUNE THAT OCCURRED IN 1968 AT 18.28 INCHES.
We are starting to hear media reports about area lakes nearing or exceeding their capacity. If a tropical system were to affect the state in the near future, we would likely be looking at some serious flooding statewide.
--Lou
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- Location: Lakeland Fl
JAX posted a new record rainfall for the day - 5.9 inches on Wednesday. That was at the airport. Other parts of Jacksonville had considerably more rain.
I drove home through the deluge. I've lived in FL nearly my whole life - so I'm used to driving through the rain - but this stuff yesterday was DUMPING down and I will confess to thinking of pulling off the road (but I decided that it was safer to continue to plod along at 35 mph).
The intersection of US-1 and Dunn Ave had standing water that was up to car door depths
I've never seen it like that. That area isn't one particularly prone to flooding...
and today's forecast:
A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2pm. (yesterday it was "rain this morning followed by showers this afternoon") Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall (lovely
). Mostly cloudy, with a high around 87. West wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
....welcome to the Sunshine State!
I drove home through the deluge. I've lived in FL nearly my whole life - so I'm used to driving through the rain - but this stuff yesterday was DUMPING down and I will confess to thinking of pulling off the road (but I decided that it was safer to continue to plod along at 35 mph).
The intersection of US-1 and Dunn Ave had standing water that was up to car door depths
and today's forecast:
A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2pm. (yesterday it was "rain this morning followed by showers this afternoon") Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall (lovely
....welcome to the Sunshine State!
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otowntiger
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boca_chris wrote:Central FL has actually been spared most of this excessive June rainfall. Go about 150-200 miles S. across S. Florida and it seems like it never stops here!
Uh, we are now at just over 17 inches for the month. Thats about one inch shy of the all time record. I think we've seen our share and then some!
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Black Creek (a little river prone to flooding) has jumped over 8 feet more of water in the past day.
Another day or two of rain like we have had and it will be flooding easily.
The rivers can only hold so much water.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/ahps.cgi?jax&mdlf1
Another day or two of rain like we have had and it will be flooding easily.
The rivers can only hold so much water.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/ahps.cgi?jax&mdlf1
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More rain for the Tampa Bay area
Tampa approaching 12" for the month, Fort Myers @ 18+" & at my home as of 6:00am this morning 13.39"
. Mid morning AFD not looking good - as more heavy rain excpected:
FXUS62 KTBW 301348
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
950 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005
.DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) WHICH DROPPED
PRODIGIOUS RAINS (3 TO 5 INCHES) OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE TAMPA
BAY AREA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WHILE MOVING ACROSS INTERIOR WEST
CENTRAL FL...LEAVING RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAINS FROM POLK
TO CHARLOTTE COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WHERE INSTABILITY WAS GREATER
(NATURE COAST) THE SOUTHWEST MORNING CONVECTIVE MACHINE IS UNDERWAY
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS COVERING THE WEST PORTIONS HERNANDO
THROUGH LEVY COUNTY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES LIKELY NEAR 2.5 INCHES.
BY THE END OF THE DAY...EXPECT EVERYONE TO HAVE RECEIVED MORE
RAIN. THE NATURE COAST THROUGH TAMPA BAY AREA WILL SEE IT FIRST (NOW
THROUGH EARLY AFTN) WHERE BRIEF CLEARING WILL ALLOW TRIGGER TEMPS
(MID 80S) TO BE REACHED AND OLD BOUNDARIES FROM THE MCS HELP FOCUS
NEW DEVELOPMENT. FROM POLK THROUGH LEE COUNTIES...A BIT LATER
CLEARING WILL DELAY HEATING BY A FEW HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL
REDEVELOP SOON AFTER FAVORING MAINLY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION.
PERHAPS COVERAGE COULD BE RAISED INTO THE 80-100 PCT RANGE BUT WILL
NOT SPLIT HAIRS ON 70-80 PERCENT FOR NOW...SO PACKAGE WILL BE LEFT
UNCHANGED.
HOWEVER...AM GETTING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT CHANNELLED SOUTHWEST FLOW
COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG SHEAR-TYPE SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO SET
UP SHOP OVER THE N GULF/N PENINSULA INTO SATURDAY. THE COASTAL
COUNTIES IN THE TAMPA BAY/SARASOTA BRADENTON AREA HAVE RECEIVED
COPIOUS RAINS SINCE MONDAY...SOME AREAS PERHAPS MORE THAN 8 INCHES.
SIMILAR HISTORICAL EVENTS...OFTEN SET UP BY THE TYPICAL LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND PUSHED OVER THE TOP BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY...HAVE
PRODUCED RIVER...URBAN...AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL BE FAVORING A
FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE...BUT WILL GET A BETTER LOOK AT DATA BEFORE HOISTING. STAY
TUNED.&&
.MARINE...LIGHT S TO SW WINDS (10 KT OR LESS) COVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE (OUTSIDE OF STORMS) THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME INCREASE TOWARD 15 KT AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE ALONE.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
88/GOLDSMITH
Robert
FXUS62 KTBW 301348
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
950 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005
.DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) WHICH DROPPED
PRODIGIOUS RAINS (3 TO 5 INCHES) OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE TAMPA
BAY AREA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WHILE MOVING ACROSS INTERIOR WEST
CENTRAL FL...LEAVING RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAINS FROM POLK
TO CHARLOTTE COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WHERE INSTABILITY WAS GREATER
(NATURE COAST) THE SOUTHWEST MORNING CONVECTIVE MACHINE IS UNDERWAY
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS COVERING THE WEST PORTIONS HERNANDO
THROUGH LEVY COUNTY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES LIKELY NEAR 2.5 INCHES.
BY THE END OF THE DAY...EXPECT EVERYONE TO HAVE RECEIVED MORE
RAIN. THE NATURE COAST THROUGH TAMPA BAY AREA WILL SEE IT FIRST (NOW
THROUGH EARLY AFTN) WHERE BRIEF CLEARING WILL ALLOW TRIGGER TEMPS
(MID 80S) TO BE REACHED AND OLD BOUNDARIES FROM THE MCS HELP FOCUS
NEW DEVELOPMENT. FROM POLK THROUGH LEE COUNTIES...A BIT LATER
CLEARING WILL DELAY HEATING BY A FEW HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL
REDEVELOP SOON AFTER FAVORING MAINLY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION.
PERHAPS COVERAGE COULD BE RAISED INTO THE 80-100 PCT RANGE BUT WILL
NOT SPLIT HAIRS ON 70-80 PERCENT FOR NOW...SO PACKAGE WILL BE LEFT
UNCHANGED.
HOWEVER...AM GETTING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT CHANNELLED SOUTHWEST FLOW
COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG SHEAR-TYPE SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO SET
UP SHOP OVER THE N GULF/N PENINSULA INTO SATURDAY. THE COASTAL
COUNTIES IN THE TAMPA BAY/SARASOTA BRADENTON AREA HAVE RECEIVED
COPIOUS RAINS SINCE MONDAY...SOME AREAS PERHAPS MORE THAN 8 INCHES.
SIMILAR HISTORICAL EVENTS...OFTEN SET UP BY THE TYPICAL LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND PUSHED OVER THE TOP BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY...HAVE
PRODUCED RIVER...URBAN...AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL BE FAVORING A
FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE...BUT WILL GET A BETTER LOOK AT DATA BEFORE HOISTING. STAY
TUNED.&&
.MARINE...LIGHT S TO SW WINDS (10 KT OR LESS) COVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AND EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE (OUTSIDE OF STORMS) THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME INCREASE TOWARD 15 KT AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE ALONE.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
88/GOLDSMITH
Robert
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