Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico

[HURAKAN]

INTERESTING DAYS AHEAD:

FROM THE ACCUWEATHER TWO:

Two tropical waves in the eastern Caribbean are causing plenty of showers and thunderstorms from south of Hispaniola to the Lesser Antilles. The first wave is located along 68 west and south of 18 north, and the other is located along 60 west and south of 22 north. Both waves are tracking to the west at 15 knots. An upper-level trough of low pressure has been backing to the west ahead of these waves and is helping to ventilate all the convection they are causing. The upper trough will weaken as it moves into the western Caribbean and this will put a favorable shear environment over the central Caribbean so this area will have to be watched for tropical development. Finally, we have a large tropical wave along 25 west and south of 16 north. Some models develop this wave into a tropical cyclone in the southwest Atlantic next week.

Time will tell!

[skysummit]

So, what'll happen? At least one of these features should develop. Could we be already talking the "E's" in late July?

[cycloneye]

So, what'll happen? At least one of these features should develop. Could we be already talking the "E's" in late July?

Read my discussion at tropical analysis forum.

[skysummit]

So, what'll happen? At least one of these features should develop. Could we be already talking the "E's" in late July?

Read my discussion at tropical analysis forum.

Good discussion cycloneye! Thanks for your input. I do too believe we'll be seeing Cindy in the near future.

[*StOrmsPr*]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 292355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.


EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 35W S OF 19N MOVING W ABOUT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BROAD BUT WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
CYCLONIC TURNING OBSERVED IN THE LOW CLOUDS N OF THE WAVE WHERE
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY...AND A NWD INFLECTION OF ITCZ
CONVECTION NOTED BEHIND THE WAVE. THE SIGNATURE HAS A GOOD
HISTORY IN UPPER AIR DATA FROM BAMAKO (00Z JUNE 26)...DAKAR (00Z
JUNE 27)...AND SAL (AROUND 00Z JUNE 28) WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ITS CURRENT POSITION. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH LIKE
THIS WAVE AND DEVELOP LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL ATLC
WATERS...BRINGING IT 150-350 NM NE OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
5 DAYS. THE NOGAPS LAGS A BIT FROM THIS WITH A LOW ABOUT 700 NM
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLE
REMAINS CONSERVATIVE BY SHOWING A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WITH NO
LOW APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. GIVEN THIS FACT AND THAT IT IS
STILL EARLY FOR THE CAPE VERDE SEASON TO START...THERE IS STILL
TIME TO WATCH THIS WAVE IN THE COMING DAYS. ISOLATEDSHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES BENDING ALONG 8N61W
16N60W 22N57W MOVING W 15 KT. THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE WAVE IS
DECEIVING GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD TSTMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
WATERS. HOWEVER...THE SHARP LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED IN
SW IR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BACK INTO THE
ATLC...AND THE WAVE WAS OBSERVED PASSING CAYENNE ABOUT 24 HRS
AGO. THE CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS IS PRIMARILY THE RESULT
OF STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF A SHARP UPPER TROF
ROTATING W TOWARDS JAMAICA. IN FACT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
LARGE COMPLEX IS SPLITTING INTO TWO CLUSTERS...ONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF AND ONE WITH THE TRPCL WAVE. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 60W-64W EXTENDING FROM
ST. VINCENT NWD TO MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA. SCATTERED
MODERATE IS ALSO FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 66W-72W PRIMARILY
IMPACTING THE WATERS S OF PUERTO RICO BUT SPREADING NW TOWARDS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE AT THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 56W-59W.