Tropical Depression Bret

[Hurricanehink]

620
WTNT42 KNHC 291438
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2005

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT BRET HAS MOVED INLAND
JUST SOUTH OF...OR VERY NEAR...TUXPAN. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES
STILL SHOW A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
AND BRET IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THERE
MIGHT BE SOME TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER WATER.

BRET IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT
7 KNOTS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER FARTHER INLAND AND
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 21.0N 97.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 21.5N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
24HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

[Hurricanehink]

389
WTNT32 KNHC 291435
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...BRET WEAKENS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MEXICO HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET WAS
LOCATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 21.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 20 KM...WEST OF
TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF
BRET FARTHER INLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER. BRET WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.0 N... 97.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA


$$

[Brent]

What a boring tropical storm.

[Scorpion]

Nice knowing you Bret.

[Swimdude]

Well, that was over and done with pretty quickly. Bret; our 24-hour storm. Heh... I was watching TWC last night at about 1:00 in the morning, and they reported that the highest winds from this storm that ANY ships could find was 10 knots. You know, about 13 mph.

[HURAKAN]

What a boring tropical storm.

The opposite is also true, sometimes we get a Cape Verde hurricanes that spend 2 weeks at sea and after a week of tracking it becomes boring because you are talking about the same thing every minute over 2 weeks.

[dhweather]

What a boring tropical storm.

Exactly. Almost a non-event.

[Brent]

What a boring tropical storm.

The opposite is also true, sometimes we get a Cape Verde hurricanes that spend 2 weeks at sea and after a week of tracking it becomes boring because you are talking about the same thing every minute over 2 weeks.

Once it's clear a system is a fish, I don't follow it near as closely.

I don't get bored with a Frances or Ivan like system though because they are threatening land by the end of their first week.

[HURAKAN]

What a boring tropical storm.

The opposite is also true, sometimes we get a Cape Verde hurricanes that spend 2 weeks at sea and after a week of tracking it becomes boring because you are talking about the same thing every minute over 2 weeks.

Once it's clear a system is a fish, I don't follow it near as closely.

I don't get bored with a Frances or Ivan like system though because they are threatening land by the end of their first week.

Of course, when you know a system is a menace to land is obvious that you don't get bored because there are always going to be new developments, RECON missions sent more often, and a lot more, is different!

[Scorpion]

Exactly, thats why I think fishes are pointless to track and they just bug the heck out of me. I hate fishes.

[HurricaneJoe22]

I guess Scorpion's home didn't hit hard enough from Frances and Jeanne.

[dhweather]

What a boring tropical storm.

The opposite is also true, sometimes we get a Cape Verde hurricanes that spend 2 weeks at sea and after a week of tracking it becomes boring because you are talking about the same thing every minute over 2 weeks.

Once it's clear a system is a fish, I don't follow it near as closely.

I don't get bored with a Frances or Ivan like system though because they are threatening land by the end of their first week.

Man, people were like monkeys addicted to crack looking for Ivan
information - he commanded lots of attention and got it!

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Bret Advisory Number 5


Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on June 29, 2005


...Bret producing heavy rains over the state of Veracruz Mexico...

at 4 PM CDT...2100z...Tropical Depression Bret was centered inland
over the state of Veracruz near latitude 21.8 north...longitude
98.6 west or about 55 miles...85 km...west-southwest of Tampico
Mexico.

The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19
km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph...45 km/hr...
with higher gusts. Bret is expected to degenerate into a low
pressure area tonight.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches...with isolated
amounts up to 10 inches mainly over mountainous terrain...are
possible in association with Bret. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...21.8 N... 98.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
10 PM CDT.

Forecaster Avila



Not completely dead yet as it is at life support.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Bret was not Boring at all. It was likely a tropical depression earlier yesterday...(11am pst/2pm est) It was found to have a closed eye wall 3 nmi wide. With pressure a amazing 1002 with in a enviroment of 1012 pressures. The flight level winds was meausred over the southwest quad. By the time the recon got into the northeast the eye had weaken(Also noted as the system cloud tops where cooling by 7pm est) Also to note at around 3pm est a clearly defined hole eye was noted by a few members on this board.


With that said we will never know just how strong Bret truely was. A very interesting storm. Heck Charley did not even have a eye this small. Borning no!!! In also it was a very small cyclone. Way smaller then Charley.

Also Bret has now out lived Alison.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2001/ALLISON.html

[hurricanefreak1988]

What a boring tropical storm.

Well, what did you expect? If Bret forms a bit farther to the east and turns north, we're calling it a huge event because he almost certainly would've reached hurricane strength. There wasn't much room for Bret to do anything, but he certainly would have been more than just a 40 mph TS had he had more to work with. So, way to go Bret, and considering the circumstances, you looked pretty darn good. Thanks for adding one to the scoreboard for us.

[dhweather]

What a boring tropical storm.

Well, what did you expect? If Bret forms a bit farther to the east and turns north, we're calling it a huge event because he almost certainly would've reached hurricane strength. There wasn't much room for Bret to do anything, but he certainly would have been more than just a 40 mph TS had he had more to work with. So, way to go Bret, and considering the circumstances, you looked pretty darn good. Thanks for adding one to the scoreboard for us.

We wanna see symmetry! A REAL EYE!!!! BITTERLY COLD TOPS!!!!!

ARRGH!