Another view of the wave at around 50W and a big squall line ready to emerge Western Africa.
Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico
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cycloneye
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Another view of the wave at around 50W and a big squall line ready to emerge Western Africa.
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cycloneye
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My little wave still has a good circulation this morning.TPC thinks so too.
W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED
ESPECIALLY ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N FROM
46W-56W.
W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED
ESPECIALLY ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N FROM
46W-56W.
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cycloneye
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Some wet weather for the lesser antilles islands and for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands for late wednesday and thursday but shear ahead will keep this one in check.I dont see anymore that vey weak circulation it had from 2 days ago.
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cycloneye
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Interaction between a trough and tropical wave is enhancing the convection as upper dynamics are favorable but in terms of any tropical development nothing there.But a wet next couple of days for the islands and Puerto Rico.
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There is some model support mid next week. I think the GFS is bringing it a little further north than the wave that helped spawn Bret and 94L. I think Bastardi showed a better ECMWF then I could get (their site was down a few minutes ago) that brought it to the Texas Coast as kind of a side note to the other system that recently emerged from Africa.
http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/loop/mrf_pres_loop.html
But obviously we've got a couple of things to watch for in July already. Not saying this foretells anything for later in the season, but it would be pretty interesting if we head into August on the E or F storm. That could mean a legitimate shot at the upper teens as far as named storms.
Steve
http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/loop/mrf_pres_loop.html
But obviously we've got a couple of things to watch for in July already. Not saying this foretells anything for later in the season, but it would be pretty interesting if we head into August on the E or F storm. That could mean a legitimate shot at the upper teens as far as named storms.
Steve
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GalvestonDuck
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feederband
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vbhoutex
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feederband wrote:GalvestonDuck wrote:Texas? That was a typo...right, Steve? Surely you didn't mean Texas could get rain, did ya? That makes no sense. Impossible! No way!
Way?
Texas..... You mean that desert????
Yes, this desert!!!!
Looks like we will end the month as the driest in history here in Houston, except for a few spots where pop up showers hit. Officialy it looks like it will go in the record books as 0.09" for the month unless there is some freak shower today or tomorrow at Intercontinental Airport.
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LOL. I wouldn't want to call it one way or the other.
I like the signature of the wave as it passes the islands
(especially today), and there's a big upper low in front
of the system with its nose crossing over into the Pacific.
So the setup, in theory, at least appears to be there.
If it were later in most years, it would be a no-brainer.
But with the apparent earlier start to what appears to
be more mature or later season waves this season,
I wouldn't discount anything that looked suspicious.
Steve
I like the signature of the wave as it passes the islands
(especially today), and there's a big upper low in front
of the system with its nose crossing over into the Pacific.
So the setup, in theory, at least appears to be there.
If it were later in most years, it would be a no-brainer.
But with the apparent earlier start to what appears to
be more mature or later season waves this season,
I wouldn't discount anything that looked suspicious.
Steve
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knotimpaired
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The clouds came into Vieques about 30 minutes ago but the rain has not started yet.
Looking at the local radar I expect it to start with the hour. For anyone who wants to follow the rain total from this wave you can visit our house site at http://www.playacofi.com/weather/
Looking at the local radar I expect it to start with the hour. For anyone who wants to follow the rain total from this wave you can visit our house site at http://www.playacofi.com/weather/
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knotimpaired
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cycloneye
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Look what Puerto Rico is going thru.Texas needs this badly and I can send some of it to that state.
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Portastorm
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cycloneye
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If there is a very weak circulation that may be on the southern end of the wave near Trinidad.
http://atmos.uprm.edu:8080/imageloop.jsp?set=3
Loop above.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Jun 29, 2005 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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I haven't seen shear maps to say what will happen in the upper levels.Yes if shear relaxes something can pop up from this.
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Haven't checked them either HURAKAN, but it doesn't matter yet.
You can see what's happening with the Upper system out front of
it as it moves to the SW ahead of that wave. It's only a matter of time
before it pulls away leaving lighter winds and probably upper
ridging (as per usual). This thing is closer in then a lot of people
realize especially since so many people are looking out further
east for the next system (as per recent model guidance). We're
talking potential development within the 4-5 day period vs
something happening toward the end of next week.
Obviously the convection and setup is there. We just have to watch
the pieces unfold (watch that upper trof out front on the Water
Vapor) and see if they fall into place thereafter.
Fireworks for the 4th of July?
Steve
You can see what's happening with the Upper system out front of
it as it moves to the SW ahead of that wave. It's only a matter of time
before it pulls away leaving lighter winds and probably upper
ridging (as per usual). This thing is closer in then a lot of people
realize especially since so many people are looking out further
east for the next system (as per recent model guidance). We're
talking potential development within the 4-5 day period vs
something happening toward the end of next week.
Obviously the convection and setup is there. We just have to watch
the pieces unfold (watch that upper trof out front on the Water
Vapor) and see if they fall into place thereafter.
Fireworks for the 4th of July?
Steve
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