Low level Swirl still in GOM

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mobilebay
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Low level Swirl still in GOM

#1 Postby mobilebay » Wed Jun 29, 2005 1:53 am

The Low level cloud swirl a few people mentioned earlier is still in the Gom. It is naked as a Jaybird though. It was clearly visible on Tuesday on Visible imagery, it still very apparent on IR2 at this hour. Most of the Models do develop something at the 850/950MB level. The GFS had been showing a surface low forming there, but has backed off a little. Could be interesting if we get some convection going over it.

Here is the IR2. Look about 125-150 east of Southern Texas and you will See the swirl come out from under the clouds through the last 5 to 6 frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The reason no convection is able to form around the swirl is plain to see on Water Vapor Imagery!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html :D
Last edited by mobilebay on Wed Jun 29, 2005 2:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jun 29, 2005 2:05 am

I see it but it is very weak. Its always a chance...Need to look at more data for that...

Bret seems to be moving inland now...
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#3 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jun 29, 2005 2:13 am

Most of the Eastern Gulf is favable for tropical development. A small area to its northwest of 20 knot shear. I would have to see alot of oreganizion before I jump.

That system around 12/30 to 35 is looking interesting. The gfs takes it to the west then northwest. The cmc takes it to the west-northwest then west. Develops a pretty strong system over the leewards. The nogaps shows a pressure falls/strong distrabance. The Ecmwf was showing a cyclone out of it. That model is what gets me because it only forecasts devleopment if it has a good shot at it.

By this it appears by model agreement any way that a tropical low should start form out over the eastern Atlantic over the next 24 hours. Then move westward well becoming better oreganized. Who knows but it is looking like it has a shot at it. :eek:


Also the shear to the north of 15 north is over 30 knots. While south of 12 it is around 15 to 20. With a area west then another east around 5 to 10 knots. Enviroment has become slightly more favable over the system. 5 knot decrease!!!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

The 00z gfs track
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/41.html
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#4 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jun 29, 2005 12:08 pm

NWS offices in Texas are paying some attention ... this is from the Austin/San Antonio office in their mid morning discussion:

PERSISTENCE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH TEMP FORECASTS REMAINING ON TRACK WITH
LATEST TRENDS. WITH BRET NOW ONSHORE, A NEW FOCUS OF ATTENTION FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE ON A SMALL SURFACE LOW CENTERED AROUND 27.3N 94.4W.
THIS FEATURE IS BENEATH FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT,
BUT HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE OR CONVECTION TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE FEATURE STILL HOLDS TOGETHER AS MOISTURE FEEDS
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, MODEL WINDS INDICATE ONLY THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTRIBUT MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING BRET INTO SOUTH TX. THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
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#5 Postby loon » Wed Jun 29, 2005 12:23 pm

hrm, crazy that Austin talks about it, no mention of it from the HOU/GAL office...however, its not looking promising at this point, something to watch none the less...come on rain..

cheers
loon
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#6 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Jun 29, 2005 12:42 pm

Could be some mild earthquakes in Houston soon. I think I'm goin ginto a rain dance when I go home for lunch!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:

How frustrating to see a naked swirl out there in pretty decent conditions for development and NOTHING be happening!!!!! :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr:
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#7 Postby earthquake~weather » Wed Jun 29, 2005 12:45 pm

no doubt, vbhoutex... what i wouldnt give for a nice tropical storm right now... :cry:

i dont remember the last time ive actually wanted to be rained in during my vacation days.... but i will take anything at this point.... :roll:
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#8 Postby Swimdude » Wed Jun 29, 2005 12:55 pm

Sure would be nice to get something here in Houston, wouldn't it? It's been forever! [Allison.] Ok well--- that's forever at my age.
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#9 Postby Johnny » Wed Jun 29, 2005 1:17 pm

It's got a buttload of dry air around it BUT if it stays put it might have a chance over the weekend. I don't see that happening though.
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#10 Postby CajunMama » Wed Jun 29, 2005 1:27 pm

Swimdude wrote:Sure would be nice to get something here in Houston, wouldn't it? It's been forever! [Allison.] Ok well--- that's forever at my age.


I don't think Houstonians want anything like Allison ever again.
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#11 Postby southerngale » Wed Jun 29, 2005 1:31 pm

No, nothing like Allison over here either, but several inches definitely wouldn't be too much.
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#12 Postby Swimdude » Wed Jun 29, 2005 1:47 pm

It's kind of strange how most Houstonians talk about Allison... In my neighborhood [at the time, SW Houston], we had plenty of rainfall, don't get me wrong... But there wasn't significant flooding or anything of the sorts. It was just a week and a half of dreary weather. [With the exception of just after it made landfall; it was a bit heavy that night.] But otherwise, it was just a rainy week with creepy pictures in the newspaper... [I'm sure we all remember the dozen or so 18-wheelers floating down I-10.]
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#13 Postby loon » Wed Jun 29, 2005 1:52 pm

Swimdude wrote:It's kind of strange how most Houstonians talk about Allison... In my neighborhood [at the time, SW Houston], we had plenty of rainfall, don't get me wrong... But there wasn't significant flooding or anything of the sorts. It was just a week and a half of dreary weather. [With the exception of just after it made landfall; it was a bit heavy that night.] But otherwise, it was just a rainy week with creepy pictures in the newspaper... [I'm sure we all remember the dozen or so 18-wheelers floating down I-10.]


You have to remember how large "Houston" is...more and more everyday even. However, no matter where in the Metro you lived, you saw on TV, knew someone that got stuck somewhere, or knew those in the heavily flooded areas, so in a sense, we all went through it, just some got the actual, the rest got the visual. I do worry, especially down here on the south side and the west side where new development has increased rapidly (you can hardly tell you left Houston all the way to Galveston these days) that the next larger, heavy rain producing tropical system that rolls through could in fact be alot worse than even Allison was....just a theory however, but there is indeed alot more concrete on the ground than even 3-4 years ago. I'm afraid a direct hit of the CAT4+ nature would be devasting in terms of flooding...

(of course CAT4+ storms are devasting all by themselves, but I hope you gather what I'm saying)

cheers
loon
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