10 PM CDT Advisory

[Normandy]

It would explain why it slowed down so much...it was moving much faster a day a go and its gradually slowed over the day. The ULL forming would be the culprit.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Hurricane BRET (1999)



Tropical Storm BRET (2005)

'05 is much closer than '99, but also smaller. If by some weird outside chance it does parallel the coast, I strongly doubt that it really gets as strong as '99.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The new Gfdl 00z shows a very slow northwest drift over the next 72 hours then it stops it intill its kills it off around 96 hours.

WHXX04 KWBC 290519
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM BRET 02L

INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 29

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.9 95.5 290./ 4.1
6 19.9 95.9 281./ 3.4
12 20.3 96.1 329./ 3.8
18 20.6 96.6 307./ 6.0
24 20.6 96.6 90./ .0
30 21.1 96.9 321./ 5.5
36 21.0 96.8 102./ 1.8
42 21.1 96.8 346./ .4
48 21.1 96.8 333./ .4
54 21.1 96.4 95./ 3.9
60 21.0 96.2 107./ 1.6
66 21.0 96.2 304./ .3
72 21.0 96.0 118./ 2.0
78 20.9 96.0 101./ .5
84 21.0 96.0 323./ .5
90 21.0 96.0 135./ .4
96 21.0 96.0 56./ .3

STORM DISSIPATED AT 96 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My best guest using the satellite thinking is the center is still just offshore. But very close to the coast. Like no more then 40 miles like...It seems to have turned more to the north-northwestward.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The nhc says it is moving at west-northwest a little faster. Looks like Bret will be inland with in the next 4 or so hours.

[Normandy]

Yep, ULL is moving westward....and Bret seems to be following.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm not sure but that little white dote that has reds/yellows around it is about where the center is. Ealier the recon reported back it had a eye.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg


Also it seems like Bret likes the BOC. He not only become one of the most powerful storms to ever form south of 20 north...But hes back 6 hours later around the same area.


Also why is the recon is not tracking this into its inland. They did that for Arlene.

[HURAKAN]

Also why is the recon is not tracking this into its inland. They did that for Arlene.

Maybe because Arlene made landfall in the US.

[Nimbus]

Convection fired off on the NE side of the LLC this morning.
Sometimes with small systems in light steering environments this the LLC
repositions under the convection slightly. With the LLC so close to land this could delay landfall for a few hours if the storm track offsets to the NE.

[Thunder44]

Also why is the recon is not tracking this into its inland. They did that for Arlene.

Because they had a flight scheduled to waste.