RECON IS A GO!!!!!

#121 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:08 pm

Can someone explain me how do we have a TD/TS with a closed eye that is 3 m wide? Amazing or normal.

Scorpion · #122 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:11 pm

Frances didn't even have a closed eye and it was 105 mph.

#123 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:13 pm

Tropical storms that are rapidly intensifying in some cases develop closed eyewalls. In this case, I believe it needs to get onshore before it becomes much stronger. I wouldn't be surprised if it got to 992mb before landfall!

#124 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:15 pm

851
URNT12 KNHC 282300
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/22:35:20Z
B. 19 deg 53 min N
095 deg 43 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 55 kt
E. 121 deg 006 nm
F. 203 deg 045 kt
G. 085 deg 004 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 24 C/ 328 m
J. 25 C/ 322 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C3
N. 12345/01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 01CCA INVEST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 45 KT SE QUAD 22:29:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT

For those who haved not seen the latest message at page 6 of thread here it is.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #125 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:851
URNT12 KNHC 282300
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/22:35:20Z
B. 19 deg 53 min N
095 deg 43 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 55 kt
E. 121 deg 006 nm
F. 203 deg 045 kt
G. 085 deg 004 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 24 C/ 328 m
J. 25 C/ 322 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C3
N. 12345/01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 01CCA INVEST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 45 KT SE QUAD 22:29:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT

For those who haved not seen the latest message at page 6 of thread here it is.

Time: 22:35:20Z
Latitude: 19.9°N
Longitude: 95.7°W
Location: 60 mi NNE of Vera Cruz, Mexico
Minimum height at NA mb NA m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 63 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 7 mi ESE (121°)
Maximum flight level wind: SSW (203°) @ 52 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 5 mi E (85°)
Sea level pressure: 1002 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 75°F at 1076 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 77°F at 1056 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 75°F
Eye character: CLOSED
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 3 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at Surface
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm
AF304 01CCA INVEST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 45 KT SE QUAD 22:29:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

By the way, the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update has been updated to list advisory links on 02L as well as storm floaters.
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/

Of course, the recon page is running as well...
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

#126 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:25 pm

Supplementary Vortex Message...

Inbound Ob #1: 18.6°N 094.4°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 70°F; Flt level wind: NW (310°) @ 16 mph
Inbound Ob #2: 18.8°N 094.6°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 72°F; Flt level wind: NW (320°) @ 15 mph
Inbound Ob #3: 19.0°N 094.8°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 72°F; Flt level wind: NW (310°) @ 18 mph
Inbound Ob #4: 19.2°N 095.0°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 70°F; Flt level wind: WNW (300°) @ 22 mph
Inbound Ob #5: 19.3°N 095.2°W; Sea level pressure: 1009 mb; Temp: 73°F; Dewpt: 68°F; Flt level wind: WNW (290°) @ 30 mph
Inbound Ob #6: 19.5°N 095.4°W; Sea level pressure: 1009 mb; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 70°F; Flt level wind: WNW (290°) @ 43 mph
Inbound Ob #7: 19.7°N 095.5°W; Sea level pressure: 1008 mb; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 72°F; Flt level wind: W (270°) @ 38 mph
Max flight level wind (Inbound): 52 mph at 19.9°N 095.6°W
First inbound ob surface wind: NW (310°) @ 17 mph

Outbound Ob #1: 20.1°N 095.9°W; Sea level pressure: 1008 mb; Temp: 73°F; Dewpt: 73°F; Flt level wind: NE (40°) @ 35 mph
Outbound Ob #2: 20.3°N 096.1°W; Sea level pressure: 1009 mb; Temp: 73°F; Dewpt: 72°F; Flt level wind: N (10°) @ 20 mph
Outbound Ob #3: 20.4°N 096.2°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 73°F; Dewpt: 72°F; Flt level wind: NE (40°) @ 22 mph
Outbound Ob #4: 20.6°N 096.4°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 73°F; Dewpt: 73°F; Flt level wind: NE (50°) @ 20 mph
Outbound Ob #5: 20.8°N 096.6°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 73°F; Dewpt: 72°F; Flt level wind: ENE (60°) @ 22 mph
Outbound Ob #6: 21.0°N 096.8°W; Sea level pressure: 1011 mb; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 72°F; Flt level wind: NE (50°) @ 17 mph
Outbound Ob #7: 21.1°N 097.0°W; Sea level pressure: 1011 mb; Temp: 70°F; Dewpt: 70°F; Flt level wind: NE (40°) @ 18 mph
Max flight level wind (Outbound): 51 mph at 20.0°N 095.7°W
Last outbound ob surface wind: N (20°) @ 17 mph
AF304 01CCA INVEST OB 15

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #127 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:30 pm

Official...

Tropical Storm Bret (02L / 02L) (29/0000Z)
Position: 19.9°N 95.8°W (60 miles NNE from Vera Cruz, Mexico)
Movement: WNW at 5 mph
Winds: 40 mph
Pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59''
Dvorak Est: T2.0/2.0

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #128 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:34 pm

Time: 2328Z
Latitude: 21.2°N
Longitude: 95.8°W
Location: 144 mi N of Vera Cruz, Mexico
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 1100 feet
Flight level wind: NE (50°) @ 18 mph
Temperature: 75°F
Dewpoint: 72°F
Weather: Overcast Skies
Sea level pressure: 1010 mb
Surface Wind: NE (60°) @ 23 mph
Remarks: AF304 01CCA INVEST OB 16

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #129 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:17 pm

Time: 23:49:50Z
Latitude: 19.9°N
Longitude: 95.7°W
Location: 64 mi NNE of Vera Cruz, Mexico
Minimum height at NA mb NA m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 40 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 16 mi NNW (342°)
Maximum flight level wind: ENE (74°) @ 40 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 9 mi N (354°)
Sea level pressure: 1005 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 70°F at 1079 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 79°F at 1089 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 72°F
Eye character: NA
Eye shape: NA
Eye diameter: NA
Fix determined by: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature at Surface
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 3 nm
AF304 01CCA INVEST OB 17
MAX FL WIND 45 KT SE QUAD 22:29:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

Derek Ortt · #130 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:27 pm

I believe that missed the center of the cyclone. I am suspicious the the pressure actually rose by 3mb in the last 90 minutes

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #131 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:33 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I believe that missed the center of the cyclone. I am suspicious the the pressure actually rose by 3mb in the last 90 minutes

I was noticing that as well...

...odd

tw861 · #132 Postby **tw861** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:34 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I believe that missed the center of the cyclone. I am suspicious the the pressure actually rose by 3mb in the last 90 minutes

Yep, I was wondering because the fix is actually a little east of the previous one. But it does look like Bret is virtually stationary right now.

#133 Postby **loon** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:37 pm

any of you mets have the insight on anything steering Bret?

#134 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:40 pm

Holy crap that is warm for a TS!!

Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 79°F at 1089 feet

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #135 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:43 pm

Kind of weird having a eye with a weak tropical storm. In its only 3 nmi wide??? Is that some kind of record.

Also the pressure field must be very tight for the pressure in the core to go from 1002 over the center to 1011 avg enviroment outside of the system. That sound/ob a by a few miles rised 3 millibars. In this thing has a 3 nmi wide eye. With that side there is most likely to be that chance that this is a good part stronger near that eye wall(Meaning that if the pressure is hard in with in a small area. The max winds most likely are to)? This is a first.

#136 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:59 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I believe that missed the center of the cyclone. I am suspicious the the pressure actually rose by 3mb in the last 90 minutes

It could be due to the fact it is such a small storm. It's easy for a pressure rise like that to happen when they are that tiny.

#137 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 8:43 pm

They miss the center, then they leave before the 0300 fix!!

722
URNT11 KNHC 290139
97779 01054 41245 94200 76200 17015 68701 /5764
RMK AF304 01CCA INVEST OB 19

Thunder44 · #138 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 8:55 pm

They used that pressure 1005mb to initialized to 0z models tonight.

398
WHXX01 KWBC 290024
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM BRET (AL022005) ON 20050629 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050629 0000 050629 1200 050630 0000 050630 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.9N 95.7W 20.7N 97.4W 21.6N 99.1W 22.4N 100.7W
BAMM 19.9N 95.7W 20.7N 97.5W 21.6N 99.2W 22.4N 100.9W
A98E 19.9N 95.7W 20.3N 96.4W 21.0N 97.6W 22.2N 99.0W
LBAR 19.9N 95.7W 20.3N 97.6W 21.6N 99.8W 23.1N 101.9W
SHIP 35KTS 46KTS 54KTS 59KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 33KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050701 0000 050702 0000 050703 0000 050704 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.9N 102.4W 22.6N 106.0W 21.9N 109.9W 21.2N 114.3W
BAMM 23.0N 102.5W 23.1N 106.0W 22.5N 110.1W 22.2N 114.7W
A98E 23.7N 101.0W 24.8N 105.3W 25.8N 108.4W 25.9N 109.2W
LBAR 24.4N 104.0W 25.4N 107.2W 25.5N 109.1W 25.5N 110.2W
SHIP 63KTS 64KTS 58KTS 54KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.9N LONCUR = 95.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 19.6N LONM12 = 94.9W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 19.2N LONM24 = 93.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 20NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 20NM

RECON IS A GO!!!!!

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