RECON IS A GO!!!!!

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#81 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:579
UZNT13 KNHC 282116 262
XXAA 78204 99222 70962 08226 99010 27641 06512 00091 26634 06513
92777 22850 08013 85509 17828 07514 70146 09023 10517 50587 04733
04521 40760 14325 08509 88999 77999
31313 09608 81952
61616 AF304 01CCA INVEST OB 06 2626 SPL 2217N09624W 2002 MBL WND 06513 AEV 20507 DLM WND 08514
010413 WL150 06513 081 =
XXBB 78208 99222 70962 08226 00010 27641 11969 24217 22933 23256
33850 17828 44564 01026 55515 03915 66495 05150 77487 06740 88475
07117 99458 08126 11403 13725 22393 15926
21212 00010 06512 11988 05513 22949 08514 33900 07011 44850 07514
55650 12015 66601 08518 77554 08515 88534 05015 99500 04521 11479
04015 22456 09516 33445 08510 44413 10012 55393 07007
31313 09608 81952
61616 AF304 01CCA INVEST OB 06 2626 SPL 2217N09624W 2002 MBL WND 06513 AEV 20507 DLM WND 08514
010413 WL150 06513 081 =


A dropsonde observation.Mike can you decode this one? :)


Hahaha... I'm not decoding that one... :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#82 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:32 pm

:lol: :lol:
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Derek Ortt

#83 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:36 pm

I'm not even sure how to decode those.

I do work extensively with dropsonde data, but from the G-IV using AVAPS files
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23080
Age: 68
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#84 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:37 pm

senorpepr wrote:Tropical Depression Two (02L / 02L) (28/1800Z)
Position: 19.8°N 95.5°W (65 miles NE from Vera Cruz, Mexico)
Movement: WNW at 9 mph
Winds: 35 mph
Pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71''
Dvorak Est: T2.0/2.0


I estimate the center has moved about 34 miles since 18Z, right at 10 to 10.5 kts toward 300 degrees. It'll be inland by 10pm CDT at that speed.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#85 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:38 pm

So far I haven't seen any recon obs that show this storm is anywhere near TS strength as mentioned in their TWO. The flight level winds I've or 29kts. Could something higher have shown in the drosponde? I've tried to learn to read that thing, but it's too hard.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#86 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:38 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I'm not even sure how to decode those.

I do work extensively with dropsonde data, but from the G-IV using AVAPS files


I know how to, but I'm not taking the effort.

(I give credit to the fine men and women who trained me in decoding RAOBs back in Germany)
0 likes   
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#87 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:39 pm

Similarly, we haven't seen an SLP lower than the 1009.1 mb that Veracruz reported in their last ob.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#88 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:40 pm

This is official...

Tropical Depression Two (02L / 02L) (28/2200Z)
Position: 19.9°N 95.7°W (60 miles NNE from Vera Cruz, Mexico)
Movement: WNW at 7 mph
Winds: 35 mph
Pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65''
Dvorak Est: T2.0/2.0
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#89 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:41 pm

could you at least say the wind speed (not the other unimportant stuff)
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#90 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:41 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I'm not even sure how to decode those.

I do work extensively with dropsonde data, but from the G-IV using AVAPS files


I know how to, but I'm not taking the effort.

(I give credit to the fine men and women who trained me in decoding RAOBs back in Germany)


I give credit to those fine instructors at Chanute AFB, IL...block 2 of observing school (that was a LONG time ago)....plus years of plotting skew-t's for the forecasters...before I became one myself.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#91 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:42 pm

senorpepr wrote:This is official...

Tropical Depression Two (02L / 02L) (28/2200Z)
Position: 19.9°N 95.7°W (60 miles NNE from Vera Cruz, Mexico)
Movement: WNW at 7 mph
Winds: 35 mph
Pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65''
Dvorak Est: T2.0/2.0


7 mph is not too fast and that factor can allow it to get tropical storm status just before it makes landfall.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#92 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:43 pm

Time: 21:12:20Z
Latitude: 19.8°N
Longitude: 95.7°W
Location: 59 mi NE of Vera Cruz, Mexico
Minimum height at NA mb NA m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 40 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 16 mi ENE (66°)
Maximum flight level wind: NW (310°) @ 46 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 3 mi SSW (207°)
Sea level pressure: 1004 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 72°F at 958 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 75°F at 948 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 73°F
Eye character: CLOSED
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 3 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 1,500 ft
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 3 nm
AF304 01CCA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SW QUAD 21:10:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Last edited by senorpepr on Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#93 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:43 pm

My decode of the dropsonde posted above:

22.2N 96.2W/ At the surface 1010 mb /12 kts from 065
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#94 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:45 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I'm not even sure how to decode those.

I do work extensively with dropsonde data, but from the G-IV using AVAPS files


I know how to, but I'm not taking the effort.

(I give credit to the fine men and women who trained me in decoding RAOBs back in Germany)


I give credit to those fine instructors at Chanute AFB, IL...block 2 of observing school (that was a LONG time ago)....plus years of plotting skew-t's for the forecasters...before I became one myself.


Unfortunately we weren't taught at Keesler, but the SAIC instructors at Sembach spent several days working with us, partly on request by our class.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#95 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:47 pm

This thing has an eye already Wow :eek:
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#96 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:47 pm

Holy mother of wow!!!

That just said a closed eye with 40 mph surface winds. :eek: Also the eye is 3 nmi wide. This is something amazing.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#97 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:48 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Holy mother of wow!!!

That just said a closed eye with 40 mph surface winds. :eek: Also the eye is 3 nmi wide. This is something amazing.


No, it said an estimated surface wind of 40 mph. That is their "eyeball" estimate of the winds.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
loon
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 655
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 4:50 pm
Location: Downtown Houston

#98 Postby loon » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:49 pm

Eye character: CLOSED
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 3 mi

doesn't that indicate a closed eye?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#99 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:50 pm

you can see the eye on visible image.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#100 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:51 pm

loon wrote:Eye character: CLOSED
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 3 mi

doesn't that indicate a closed eye?


Yes, a circular one that is 3 miles in diameter.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 583 guests