2.0/2.0 T Number,TD by Sat Estimates but maybe Bret?

[cycloneye]

28/1745 UTC 19.4N 95.2W T2.0/2.0 95 -- Atlantic Ocean


This is a TD by sat estimates and when recon gets there it well be a bit more stronger.

[HURAKAN]

By the way, two years ago today we were talking about Bill in the Bay of Campeche, in a few hours we may find Bret in the Bay of Campeche.

[cycloneye]

By the way, two years ago today we were talking about Bill in the Bay of Campeche, in a few hours we may find Bret in the Bay of Campeche.

Agree it looks like we will see Bret.

[Thunder44]

Those estimates often run behind on current intensity. But it's good to see those numbers going up, an indication of further organization.

[Nimbus]

The center of circulation is below 20 degrees and so close to land its hard to get very excited.
Are there any steering forecasts that pull this more north than NW?
This is a fun system to speculate on since it appears to be relatively harmless.
I say it develops s l o w l y due to proximity to land and hugs the Mexican coastline for a day or two.
Be great if it brought some moisture north with it.

[Scorpion]

Too bad its moving toward Mexico. It would be nice if it was heading due north.

[dhweather]

Too bad its moving toward Mexico. It would be nice if it was heading due north.

Yes it would, Bill was fun, and we got RAIN!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just think if this thing at a few days over water??? In was moving to the north-northwest. Thats what its dad did.

[Swimdude]

Too bad its moving toward Mexico. It would be nice if it was heading due north.

Too bad it's moving right towards Mexico. As in, it'll be there in about an hour.

[Scorpion]

Actually it has about 24 hours until it hits land as it is moving NW.

[southerngale]

Boy, we could sure use the rain! I wish it would move more to the north. They just issued a burn ban here.

[dhweather]

Actually it has about 24 hours until it hits land as it is moving NW.

I really think it's moving due west, or just north of due west.

There's some shear in the NW quad that may make it look like it's moving
NW, but zoom in on the loop and watch the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

But it is crawling west at 5kts an oportunity to strengh while more time in water.

[loon]

What is causing that moisture to shoot NW up in the upper GOM? Looks like outflow boundaries but I'm pretty sure its not....will that stuff make it to us...please.....have mercy....please... =]

[Thunder44]

Recon will confirm what speed and direction it's moving. Just wait another hour or so.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on my history of watching these things. When you have a Cdo (like cloud over the center). With banding like futures like this one doe's. It is likely to have a very tight wind field. With the highest winds with in a inner band. Also the pressure field is very tight. I would not be at all suprized if this was 50 mph right now. Thats my .02 cents.

[Normandy]

Its definitely moving westward, should be on the coast pretty soon....If they classify it itll be the shortest lived storm ever.

[Steve]

>>Based on my history of watching these things

Your history? Aren't you still a teenager? Hey, it's not that I disagree with you here, but I'm wondering how much history that actually entails.

Steve

[Thunder44]

>>Based on my history of watching these things

Your history? Aren't you still a teenager? Hey, it's not that I disagree with you here, but I'm wondering how much history that actually entails.

Steve

C'mon Steve, you got many people following the weather since they were 5.

[Brent]

Its definitely moving westward, should be on the coast pretty soon....If they classify it itll be the shortest lived storm ever.

I don't know about that:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/TEN.shtml?

Only 3 advisories

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2001/NINE.html

Only 2 complete advisories and 1 Intermediate.