Special feature 2:00

[margaritabeach]

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC.

...Special feature... a surface trough runs from the north central Gulf of Mexico near 30n88w to 26n93w into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and The Isthmus of Tehuantepec near 18n95w. This trough has been moving westward during the last few days...running from the Yucatan Peninsula to the southeastern Gulf of Mexico earlier this week. A surface low pressure center is forecast to develop in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours...possibly becoming a tropical cyclone. An upper level ridge runs from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to the northeastern Gulf and eventually northeastward even more toward North Carolina. A middle to upper level shear axis or really narrow and sharp trough runs through 30n90w to 25n94w and 21n98w. Middle to upper level dry air is northwest of this 30n90w 21n98w line. Upper level anticyclonic flow is within 210 nm on either side of the ridge. Scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms are found now from 19n to 21n between 94w and 96w...from 23n to 26n between 88w and 92w...and from 27n to 29n between 85w and 87w. Other showers and thunderstorms may under this ridge also.