11:30 AM TWO=No Recon

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 75
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS LIMITED BY THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THE
LOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TAMPICO THROUGH VERACRUZ.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

[dhweather]

Too close to land, too little time.

Oh well, hurry up and wait.

[TS Zack]

Looks like they just don't want to waste a TD on a storm that will be short-lived.

[cycloneye]

Too close to land, too little time.

Oh well, hurry up and wait.

Agree little time for system to develop.Dont waste $$$$ on a system that will go inland in a matter of hours.

[Thunder44]

They don't seem to me to make it clear what they are going to do with it.

[Stormcenter]

Too close to land, too little time.

Oh well, hurry up and wait.

Agree little time for system to develop.Dont waste $$$$ on a system that will go inland in a matter of hours.

Yes but they can at least classify it a TD. I think it is a TD.

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather Tropical Discussion:

There is a large area of convection, or thunderstorms, in the Bay of Campeche in association with an area of low pressure. The intensification of the thunderstorm activity indicates that a tropical depression may very well have formed. The key to further development of this system will be whether or not the low-level circulation can stay over the warm water long enough, to allow strengthening and have the winds aloft weaken.

[krysof]

It seems to be that there could have been a couple TD's by now, but since the NHC doesn't want to give it a status, no TD's. Since it's June 28 the NHC doesn't want to give any status unless they are absolutely sure it is a TD or TS.

[Thunder44]

Too close to land, too little time.

Oh well, hurry up and wait.

Agree little time for system to develop.Dont waste $$$$ on a system that will go inland in a matter of hours.

I believe it has already developed into at least TD.

[Derek Ortt]

it seems obvious that this is on the verge of becoming a TD; though they may be waiting for some increase in the winds to the 25-30KT range before going ahead with the upgrade

[cycloneye]

it seems obvious that this is on the verge of becoming a TD; though they may be waiting for some increase in the winds to the 25-30KT range before going ahead with the upgrade

Derek about not sending a plane do you think it was the right decision?

[Derek Ortt]

the earliest one could go out would be tomorrow, and this is inland by then. That decision was a no brainer not to schedule a recon. Couldn't schedule one for today, yesterday as this system didn't exist yesterday

[HURAKAN]

Tampico and Poza Rica are both reporting West winds.

[cycloneye]

the earliest one could go out would be tomorrow, and this is inland by then. That decision was a no brainer not to schedule a recon. Couldn't schedule one for today, yesterday as this system didn't exist yesterday

Yes they make a schedule of the missions with one day ahead.

[Thunder44]

the earliest one could go out would be tomorrow, and this is inland by then. That decision was a no brainer not to schedule a recon. Couldn't schedule one for today, yesterday as this system didn't exist yesterday

Yes they make a schedule of the missions with one day ahead.

Well, I guess that's too bad then.

[tw861]

I would have to disagree with Derek. They do "resources permitting" flights all the time, particularly on systems in the GOM that they can easily reach from BIX. I'm not going to be to critical of the NHC, but had they really wanted a flight they could have had one and had this system been closer to the US there would have been a flight. They do training missions in the GOM all the time, almost daily and it would have been very easy to send one of these down to the BOC.

Before you ask how I know this, I assure your my job puts me in a position to know these things. I work with them all the time.

[Scorpion]

I think they can at least upgrade it to a TD because they upgrade TD's that are just off of Africa with no problem.

[gkrangers]

A "resources permitting" flight would be one where this "TD" is in the central gulf, with extremely favorable condtions to rapidly develop and head north into the gulf coast.

[jlauderdal]

It seems to be that there could have been a couple TD's by now, but since the NHC doesn't want to give it a status, no TD's. Since it's June 28 the NHC doesn't want to give any status unless they are absolutely sure it is a TD or TS.

I don't think the date has anything to do with the classification of systems.

[krysof]

then it's about a particular system in general- Plus recon costs money so that is another reason that recon won't play over there, yet they did with I believe invest 94L which was useless.