5:30 Am TWO... WOW!!!

[mobilebay]

http://flhurricane.com/text/TWOAT.txt

We may have something.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AROUND
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. INTERESTS
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL COASTS OF MEXICO...AND IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


So we got a surface low...With increasing convection. Now that is what I'm talking about. If this would just stop moving.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is starting to look very impressive on satellite. If it was not for it to make landfall durning the next day or so. There is no quastion this system would become someting

[Thunder44]

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[mobilebay]

Also of interest the GFS wants to develop a closed low just south of Mobile bay. I tell you the GFS has been much stronger with the vortex to the north looking at the 850MB vortex. It may be on to something here too. This is the 06Z run, which is running now! Note- it seems to be having trouble with the low in the BOC so far.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif
Here is the 850MB Vortex at 30 hours...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_030l.gif
Now at 36 hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_036l.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The surface station 150 or so miles to the west of the center is reporting 20 mph winds. With towering clouds...

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html

[rainstorm]

looks like a td is forming

[James]

One of the storm floaters has been moved over the Bay of Campeche now, so we have a better view.

[tailgater]

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE E HALF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE GULF TO
INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA SW THROUGH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 27N94W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N98W. THIS IS SUPPORTING
DRY AIR THUS LEAVING THE AREA RELATIVELY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NE ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER E
SOUTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF NEAR
28N90W S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ARE GENERATING LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE GULF W OF 91W INCLUDING ALL OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 23N FROM 91W-97W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH ITS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Still not really call it a low or anything but a trough, are they in denile