Tropical Depression Calvin
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HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
hurricanefreak1988 wrote:
Looks like Calvin is dying already. Another useless E-Pac storm. No worries, though. The E-Pac will die down soon enough, as we rise to the lead.
Shame on you! The EPAC has just as much a right to produce storms as the Atlantic!
All basins deserve our utmost and equal respect.
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HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
.-
Matt-hurricanewatcher
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 280824
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005
...CALVIN CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO
MANZANILLO MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES... 215 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
CALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM...MAINLY IN A SMALL NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.
REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...15.9 N...102.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
WTPZ33 KNHC 280824
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005
...CALVIN CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO
MANZANILLO MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES... 215 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
CALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM...MAINLY IN A SMALL NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.
REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...15.9 N...102.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280823
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005
CALVIN REMAINS AN UGLY TROPICAL STORM THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A
MODEST INCREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
NOTED OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
35 TO 45 KT...AND A COUPLE OF SHIPS ABOUT 100 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER REPORTED 20-25 KT WINDS AT 06Z. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY
WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT COULD BE WEAKER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. CALVIN REMAINS ON TRACK...SO
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SHIFT
IT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...OR TO THE LEFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
28/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE WEAKNESS IN THE MEXICAN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS FILLED IN AND
DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT CALVIN. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.
WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS ABATED SLIGHTLY...WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME
CONVECTIVE BANDING TO REDEVELOP. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES WAS NOTED UPSTREAM EAST OF ACAPULCO THAT
SHOULD AFFECT CALVIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE BRIEF PERIODS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO BEFORE CALVIN REACHES COOLER WATER...AND DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR. AS SUCH...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN 12
HOURS...BUT THERE COULD EASILY BE 5 KT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS AT
ANY TIME BEFORE STEADY WEAKENING BEGINS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY
SINCE CALVIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM
MEXICO.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 15.9N 102.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 16.2N 103.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 16.6N 105.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 16.8N 107.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 17.0N 109.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 01/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 02/0600Z 17.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
WTPZ43 KNHC 280823
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005
CALVIN REMAINS AN UGLY TROPICAL STORM THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A
MODEST INCREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
NOTED OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
35 TO 45 KT...AND A COUPLE OF SHIPS ABOUT 100 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER REPORTED 20-25 KT WINDS AT 06Z. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY
WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT COULD BE WEAKER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. CALVIN REMAINS ON TRACK...SO
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SHIFT
IT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...OR TO THE LEFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
28/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE WEAKNESS IN THE MEXICAN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS FILLED IN AND
DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT CALVIN. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.
WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS ABATED SLIGHTLY...WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME
CONVECTIVE BANDING TO REDEVELOP. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES WAS NOTED UPSTREAM EAST OF ACAPULCO THAT
SHOULD AFFECT CALVIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE BRIEF PERIODS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO BEFORE CALVIN REACHES COOLER WATER...AND DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR. AS SUCH...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN 12
HOURS...BUT THERE COULD EASILY BE 5 KT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS AT
ANY TIME BEFORE STEADY WEAKENING BEGINS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY
SINCE CALVIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM
MEXICO.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 15.9N 102.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 16.2N 103.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 16.6N 105.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 16.8N 107.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 17.0N 109.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 01/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 02/0600Z 17.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 281150
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005
...CALVIN CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO
MANZANILLO MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST OR ABOUT
225 MILES... 365 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
CALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM...MAINLY IN A SMALL AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...103.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
8 AM PDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
WTPZ33 KNHC 281150
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005
...CALVIN CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO
MANZANILLO MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST OR ABOUT
225 MILES... 365 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
CALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM...MAINLY IN A SMALL AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.
REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...103.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
8 AM PDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148503
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN (EP032005) ON 20050628 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050628 1200 050629 0000 050629 1200 050630 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 103.6W 16.5N 105.9W 17.1N 108.8W 17.7N 112.3W
BAMM 16.0N 103.6W 16.5N 105.4W 16.8N 108.0W 17.4N 111.1W
LBAR 16.0N 103.6W 16.3N 105.8W 17.1N 108.6W 17.9N 111.8W
SHIP 35KTS 34KTS 34KTS 32KTS
DSHP 35KTS 34KTS 34KTS 32KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050630 1200 050701 1200 050702 1200 050703 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 116.3W 20.4N 125.0W 23.8N 132.0W 27.1N 134.6W
BAMM 17.7N 114.7W 18.5N 122.9W 20.2N 131.0W 22.4N 137.9W
LBAR 19.1N 115.2W 21.5N 122.5W 24.2N 127.8W 29.3N 124.3W
SHIP 29KTS 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 29KTS 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 103.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 101.1W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 99.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 40NM
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050628 1200 050629 0000 050629 1200 050630 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 103.6W 16.5N 105.9W 17.1N 108.8W 17.7N 112.3W
BAMM 16.0N 103.6W 16.5N 105.4W 16.8N 108.0W 17.4N 111.1W
LBAR 16.0N 103.6W 16.3N 105.8W 17.1N 108.6W 17.9N 111.8W
SHIP 35KTS 34KTS 34KTS 32KTS
DSHP 35KTS 34KTS 34KTS 32KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050630 1200 050701 1200 050702 1200 050703 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 116.3W 20.4N 125.0W 23.8N 132.0W 27.1N 134.6W
BAMM 17.7N 114.7W 18.5N 122.9W 20.2N 131.0W 22.4N 137.9W
LBAR 19.1N 115.2W 21.5N 122.5W 24.2N 127.8W 29.3N 124.3W
SHIP 29KTS 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 29KTS 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 103.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 101.1W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 99.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 40NM
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148503
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005
...CALVIN HEADED FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC...
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO
MANZANILLO.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST OR ABOUT
200 MILES... 325 KM... SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
CALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ARE DIMINISHING.
REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...16.1 N...104.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
SINCE CALVIN IS NO LONGER A THREAT TO THE COAST...THIS IS THE LAST
PUBLIC ADVISORY.
THE NEXT FORECAST/ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM PDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005
...CALVIN HEADED FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC...
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO
MANZANILLO.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST OR ABOUT
200 MILES... 325 KM... SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
CALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ARE DIMINISHING.
REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...16.1 N...104.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
SINCE CALVIN IS NO LONGER A THREAT TO THE COAST...THIS IS THE LAST
PUBLIC ADVISORY.
THE NEXT FORECAST/ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM PDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148503
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005
CALVIN HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED...NEAR 11 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO A
CONTINUED MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST. THIS IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN...BUT OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO...THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT
35 KT...IN LINE WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PROSPECT FOR
RESTRENGTHENING SINCE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE SYSTEM
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER A
DAY OR SO WHEN CALVIN TRAVERSES COOLER WATERS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MEXICO IS DISCONTINUED...AND PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM ARE BEING TERMINATED.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/1500Z 16.1N 104.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 16.3N 105.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 16.6N 107.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 16.8N 109.4W 30 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 17.0N 111.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 01/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 02/1200Z 17.0N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/1200Z 17.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
The watches for the Mexican coast haved been discontinued.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005
CALVIN HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED...NEAR 11 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO A
CONTINUED MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST. THIS IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN...BUT OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO...THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT
35 KT...IN LINE WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PROSPECT FOR
RESTRENGTHENING SINCE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE SYSTEM
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER A
DAY OR SO WHEN CALVIN TRAVERSES COOLER WATERS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MEXICO IS DISCONTINUED...AND PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM ARE BEING TERMINATED.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/1500Z 16.1N 104.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 16.3N 105.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 16.6N 107.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 16.8N 109.4W 30 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 17.0N 111.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 01/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 02/1200Z 17.0N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/1200Z 17.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
The watches for the Mexican coast haved been discontinued.
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Hurricanehink
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cycloneye
- Admin
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN (EP032005) ON 20050628 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050628 1800 050629 0600 050629 1800 050630 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.6N 104.6W 15.7N 107.1W 16.0N 110.2W 16.5N 113.9W
BAMM 15.6N 104.6W 15.6N 106.6W 15.7N 109.5W 16.0N 112.8W
LBAR 15.6N 104.6W 15.7N 106.8W 16.0N 109.6W 16.9N 112.7W
SHIP 25KTS 23KTS 22KTS 23KTS
DSHP 25KTS 23KTS 22KTS 23KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050630 1800 050701 1800 050702 1800 050703 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.1N 118.0W 19.0N 126.0W 21.9N 132.6W 25.0N 135.4W
BAMM 16.2N 116.5W 17.0N 124.0W 18.4N 131.4W 20.3N 138.4W
LBAR 18.0N 116.4W 20.2N 123.9W 22.7N 129.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 23KTS 21KTS 21KTS 22KTS
DSHP 23KTS 21KTS 21KTS 22KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 104.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 102.2W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 100.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
REST IN PEACE.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050628 1800 050629 0600 050629 1800 050630 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.6N 104.6W 15.7N 107.1W 16.0N 110.2W 16.5N 113.9W
BAMM 15.6N 104.6W 15.6N 106.6W 15.7N 109.5W 16.0N 112.8W
LBAR 15.6N 104.6W 15.7N 106.8W 16.0N 109.6W 16.9N 112.7W
SHIP 25KTS 23KTS 22KTS 23KTS
DSHP 25KTS 23KTS 22KTS 23KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050630 1800 050701 1800 050702 1800 050703 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.1N 118.0W 19.0N 126.0W 21.9N 132.6W 25.0N 135.4W
BAMM 16.2N 116.5W 17.0N 124.0W 18.4N 131.4W 20.3N 138.4W
LBAR 18.0N 116.4W 20.2N 123.9W 22.7N 129.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 23KTS 21KTS 21KTS 22KTS
DSHP 23KTS 21KTS 21KTS 22KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 104.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 102.2W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 100.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
REST IN PEACE.
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hurricanefreak1988
- Category 3
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senorpepr wrote:Actually... he does live on the Pacific Coast.hurricanefreak1988 wrote:Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wahoo we got something to watch!!!
Traitor! Go live on the Pacific coast, we don't want a traitor like you here in the Atlantic.
Looks like Calvin is dying already. Another useless E-Pac storm. No worries, though. The E-Pac will die down soon enough, as we rise to the lead.
Oh really? Then he is the enemy.
HurricaneBill wrote:hurricanefreak1988 wrote:
Looks like Calvin is dying already. Another useless E-Pac storm. No worries, though. The E-Pac will die down soon enough, as we rise to the lead.
Shame on you! The EPAC has just as much a right to produce storms as the Atlantic!
All basins deserve our utmost and equal respect.
As an Atlantic fan, it is my duty to root against the E-Pac. They're our archrivals.
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hurricanefreak1988
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ43 KNHC 282028
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER...IF IT STILL
EXISTS...HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED. IT APPEARS THAT CALVIN IS IN
THE PROCESS OF DEGENERATING INTO AN EAST-WEST ELONGATED TROUGH. A
SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH...BUT CONTINUITY FROM NIGHTTIME IR CHANNEL COMBINATION
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WEAK SWIRL IS NOT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
CALVIN HAS WEAKENED TO AN ESTIMATED 25 KT INTENSITY...AND GIVEN THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS LIKELY. ADVISORIES MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS EVENING.
THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST AND INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 260/10. CALVIN...OR ITS REMNANT...IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK...FOLLOWING THE NEAR-SURFACE
EASTERLY FLOW...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/2100Z 15.5N 105.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 15.4N 106.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 29/1800Z 15.3N 108.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 30/0600Z 15.2N 110.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 30/1800Z 15.1N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Good-Bye Calvin.
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER...IF IT STILL
EXISTS...HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED. IT APPEARS THAT CALVIN IS IN
THE PROCESS OF DEGENERATING INTO AN EAST-WEST ELONGATED TROUGH. A
SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH...BUT CONTINUITY FROM NIGHTTIME IR CHANNEL COMBINATION
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WEAK SWIRL IS NOT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
CALVIN HAS WEAKENED TO AN ESTIMATED 25 KT INTENSITY...AND GIVEN THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS LIKELY. ADVISORIES MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS EVENING.
THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST AND INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 260/10. CALVIN...OR ITS REMNANT...IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK...FOLLOWING THE NEAR-SURFACE
EASTERLY FLOW...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/2100Z 15.5N 105.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 15.4N 106.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 29/1800Z 15.3N 108.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 30/0600Z 15.2N 110.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 30/1800Z 15.1N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Good-Bye Calvin.
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hurricanefreak1988
- Category 3
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lilbump3000
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hurricanefreak1988
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