BOC/Yucatan

[tw861]

I suppose they expect it to go away. Persistence is the key and tonight will go a long way toward learning what the future for this system might be.

I still don't get it though, it's obvious there's a circulation down there and surface reports even support that. They have made bigger deals about lesser defined systems before. You would thing it would at least get a mention.

If it's still there in the morning I'm sure they will acknowlege it.

[LaBreeze]

Local met reported that any shower activity worth mentioning should remain south over the GOM and not make it's way up here to the coast - should make it over to Mexico or possibly extreme S. Texas.

[tailgater]

I was just looking at the steering currents over this area. They are very light in all levels pretty much east to west in the lower levels and southeast to northwest in the mid and upper levels. "Bears Watching"

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears that the LLC/MLC has moved west-northwest. In is now forming some pretty impressive convection right over it. Also has nice outflow with low shear. It should track to the west-northwest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Hurricanehink]

Wow! That's pretty well organized.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing is getting oreganized quickly. If that is a LLC with that convection forming like that. Then we may have a depression soon.

[feederband]

Does look good. But I think it going to be a sidewinder into Mexico....

[KatDaddy]

Matt you are freaken out my friend. Yes it looks better but just wait. This season will become very interesting in a few more weeks.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm not freaking out. The shear is low with it decreasing by the minute. There is a LLC with deep convection forming over it. I don't know why people think I'm freaking out. I put up info to back my self up. If this thing stays around for a while we most likely will see development.

[wxman57]

Here's a 00Z sat pic and surface obs map. Anyone banking on development should look at a long water vapor loop. I don't think that the shear maps really have a handle on the upper-level winds in the BoC. Looks like extremely strong SW winds aloft over the region, and I see no signs of it letting up. I can see two small disturbances moving rapidly westward across the BoC. One is near the west coast of the Yucatan, the other is in the south-central BoC. These disturbances are entering the right rear entrance region of the jet around the upper level low and producing a couple of thunderstorm "hot spots". But these disturbances are moving more quickly than the surface feature and the upper low is nearly stationary. So I expect that the thunderstorms may diminish as quickly as they flared up today.

Still, there is a weak surface low, and we shouldn't ignore it until it's inland. But it doesn't look like it has anywhere to go but westward into Mexico at this point.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/boc2.gif">

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The 18z Gfs takes it west-northwest...While it makes it a little stronger. Landfall around 42 hours.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

[KatDaddy]

Matt you are freaken out my friend. Yes it looks better but just wait. This season will become very interesting in a few more weeks.

[MGC]

The shear is just to the north of the low in the extreem south BOC. Conditions are marginal for development. Between Calvin to its SW and a high over Texas this little bugger can only go WNW to W into Mexico.....MGC

[gatorcane]

Allow me to kindly end this GOM/BOC party:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272053
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

AND even if something just happened to develop despite this expert analysis, it couldn't get very strong anyway. There's not much room for it to grow!

patience, there will be much to talk about in August-October.

[Normandy]

As i said before....nothing is hapenning here....too many "issues" it has to get past.

[tw861]

Well here you go.....

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on June 27, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Thunderstorm activity in the Bay of Campeche has increased this
evening in association with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level
winds...currently unfavorable for development...could become
somewhat more favorable over the next day or two in this area.
However...proximity to land is expected to limit the potential
development of this system.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Wednesday.

Forecaster Franklin

I guess they are showing little more interest. It will be interesting to see what we have in the morning.

[tailgater]

If you don't want to talk about it, then don't. I find it interesting and there's nothing else out there!

[KatDaddy]

Wow that interesting............I have 2 posts but posted once. Talk about fat fingering

Matt we truely appreciate your posts. There are many oldtimers here and we understand your excitement. Thats what make Storm2k real.

[Stormcenter]

Yeah thanks Matt for the posts. It's the ONLY game in town right now so what's wrong with posting about it?

[tailgater]

No pressure drops at the surface yet but it sure looks juicy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

I was gonna post the same thing, but did notice the winds slowly increasing at the buoy and along the coast maybe just T-storms maybe not.