Tropical Depression Calvin

#61 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 3:32 pm

WTPZ23 KNHC 272028
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032005
2100Z MON JUN 27 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA
WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.9W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.9W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.8N 102.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.3N 104.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.8N 106.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.3N 108.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 18.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 100.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH

#62 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 3:33 pm

TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2005

ACAPULCO RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT...THE SPIRAL BANDING IS NOT AS WELL
DEFINED AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES
ALSO SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 3.0 AND THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
CALVIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
LATEST GFDL AND SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL
BE TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERING A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
SO WEAKENING SHOULD HAVE COMMENCED BY THAT TIME.

THERE IS A LOT OF SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES BUT THE STORM HAS
APPARENTLY TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 300/9. THE TRACK FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND PROVIDING AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
STEERING FLOW. BECAUSE OF THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...
THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW.

THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION REDUCES THE THREAT TO THE COAST...AND
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH CAN PROBABLY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.4N 100.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.8N 102.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 16.3N 104.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 16.8N 106.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 17.3N 108.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 18.0N 115.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 18.0N 117.5W 20 KT

The 2 PM PDT advisory.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #63 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 3:49 pm

There is 50 knot shear just to the south. With 30 knot shear over this. With 10 to 20 knot increases. This is going to stay about the same at best or get sheared apart most likely.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #64 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 3:50 pm

Tropical Storm Calvin (03E / 03E) (27/2100Z)
Position: 15.4°N 100.9°W (120 miles SW from Acapulco, Mexico)
Movement: WNW at 10 mph
Winds: 50 mph
Pressure: 1000 mb / 29.53''
Dvorak Est: T3.0/3.0

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #65 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 3:53 pm

Here is the shear map...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g9sht.html

Swimdude · #66 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:20 pm

My goodness, it's a shear map I understand! *Bookmarks!*

#67 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 6:44 pm

TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2005

...CALVIN BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA
WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 101.2 WEST OR ABOUT
125 MILES... 200 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

CALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

CALVIN HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45
MPH...70 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.

REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...15.6 N...101.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Calvin weakens.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #68 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 6:46 pm

Tropical Storm Calvin (03E / 03E) (28/0000Z)
Position: 15.6°N 101.2°W (125 miles SW from Acapulco, Mexico)
Movement: WNW at 10 mph
Winds: 45 mph
Pressure: 1000 mb / 29.53''
Dvorak Est: T3.0/3.0

hurricanefreak1988 · #69 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 7:08 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wahoo we got something to watch!!!

Traitor! Go live on the Pacific coast, we don't want a traitor like you here in the Atlantic. :lol:

Looks like Calvin is dying already. Another useless E-Pac storm. No worries, though. The E-Pac will die down soon enough, as we rise to the lead.

#70 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 7:16 pm

The system looks really bad tonight, I will say that the shear is eating this tropical cyclone and further weakening seems to be taking place right now.

#71 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 7:19 pm

HURAKAN wrote:

The system looks really bad tonight, I will say that the shear is eating this tropical cyclone and further weakening seems to be taking place right now.

If this trend continues it well be downgraded to TD by the morning.

tw861 · #72 Postby **tw861** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 7:21 pm

Note the much colder cloud tops near the non-system in the BOC. Looks more impressive up there.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #73 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 7:30 pm

hurricanefreak1988 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wahoo we got something to watch!!!

Traitor! Go live on the Pacific coast, we don't want a traitor like you here in the Atlantic.

Looks like Calvin is dying already. Another useless E-Pac storm. No worries, though. The E-Pac will die down soon enough, as we rise to the lead.

Actually... he does live on the Pacific Coast. :lol:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #74 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 7:31 pm

That system in the BOC has a surface cirualtion/MLC. The Gfs 12z took it west-northwest into Mexico over the next 36 hours. I think this is becoming better oreganized then Calvin. Plus much less Shear. One told the shear over Calvin is around 30 knots. While the system over the BOC has 5 to 10 knot shear.

#75 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 7:32 pm

27/2345 UTC 15.8N 101.1W T2.0/3.0 CALVIN -- East Pacific Ocean

It looks like Calvin hours as a storm are numbered.

#76 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 7:55 pm

TROPICAL STORM CALVIN (EP032005) ON 20050628 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050628 0000 050628 1200 050629 0000 050629 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.6N 101.2W 16.2N 103.5W 16.7N 106.1W 17.1N 109.3W
BAMM 15.6N 101.2W 16.2N 103.1W 16.6N 105.3W 16.9N 108.2W
LBAR 15.6N 101.2W 16.1N 103.3W 17.1N 105.9W 17.9N 108.8W
SHIP 35KTS 39KTS 42KTS 43KTS
DSHP 35KTS 39KTS 42KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050630 0000 050701 0000 050702 0000 050703 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 113.0W 17.9N 121.4W 19.8N 130.0W 23.4N 137.3W
BAMM 17.2N 111.5W 17.6N 119.1W 18.3N 127.0W 20.0N 134.3W
LBAR 18.9N 112.2W 21.4N 118.8W 22.8N 124.3W 25.9N 123.2W
SHIP 41KTS 28KTS 16KTS 0KTS
DSHP 41KTS 28KTS 16KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 101.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 99.6W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 97.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM

Almost a depression if is not already.

#77 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 8:09 pm

Scorpion · #78 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 8:47 pm

Calvin is dying. Good

.

#79 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:39 pm

Tropical Storm Calvin Discussion Number 6

Statement as of 8:00 PM PDT on June 27, 2005

the satellite and radar presentations of Calvin have deteriorated
dramatically this evening. On satellite imagery...cloud tops have
warmed and the banding seen earlier has all but disappeared. Two
microwave passes near 01z indicate that the low-level circulation
center is about 50 nmi to the southeast of what rotation can be
seen aloft. Dvorak classifications suggest that Calvin is near
minimal tropical storm strength...and the initial intensity is
lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. Calvin still has 24-36 hours
over warm water...so the convection could well return...but global
model guidance does not suggest that the shear will lessen anytime
soon...and Calvin is likely to struggle in a marginal environment
until its inevitable demise. Both the SHIPS and GFDL intensity
guidance suggest little overall change in strength until Calvin
reaches cooler waters.

Calvin remains basically on track...295/9. The official forecast
has been adjusted to be a little slower than the previous
package...based on the deteriorating structure of the cyclone in an
easterly shearing flow...and is in best agreement with the GFDL
model. A mid-level ridge is expected to maintain Calvin on a
west-northwest track that will gradually edge away from the Mexican
coast...and the tropical storm watch will likely be lowered soon.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 28/0300z 15.8n 101.6w 35 kt
12hr VT 28/1200z 16.2n 103.0w 35 kt
24hr VT 29/0000z 16.7n 105.0w 35 kt
36hr VT 29/1200z 17.1n 107.0w 30 kt
48hr VT 30/0000z 17.5n 109.0w 25 kt...dissipating
72hr VT 01/0000z 17.5n 112.0w 25 kt...remnant low
96hr VT 02/0000z 17.5n 115.0w 20 kt...remnant low
120hr VT 03/0000z 17.5n 117.0w 20 kt...remnant low

It's hours as a storm are numbered maybe by early morning.

#80 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:43 pm

Tropical Storm Calvin Advisory Number 6

Statement as of 8:00 PM PDT on June 27, 2005

...Calvin weakens...tropical storm watch extended westward...
At 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...the government of Mexico has discontinued
the tropical storm watch east of Acapulco...and extended the
tropical storm watch westward to Manzanillo. A tropical storm
watch is now in effect from Acapulco to Manzanillo.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 8 PM PDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Calvin was
located near latitude 15.8 north...longitude 101.6 west or about
130 miles... 210 km...south of Zihuatanejo Mexico.

Calvin is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph ...17
km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. On this track the center of the storm will continue to move
parallel to the coast of Mexico overnight.

Calvin has continued to weaken this evening...and maximum sustained
winds are now near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Little
change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
... 75 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

Total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches...with locally higher
amounts over mountainous terrain...are expected within the watch
area.
Repeating the 8 PM PDT position...15.8 N...101.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM PDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 2 am PDT.

Forecaster Franklin

Tropical Depression Calvin

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