Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico

[cycloneye]

Interesting little feature which has a circulation embedded and convection has been increasing slowly since last night.And TPC talks about it.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DEMONSTRATE A
WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE IN BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT
DATA. IN FACT...A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 10N. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 44W-48W.


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

Click at the little wave to the low right part of the pic to see it very close.Weak Circulation is around 10n.

[cycloneye]

Another view of that little wave.

[HURAKAN]

Luis, and nothing more is expected from this wave?

[cycloneye]

Luis, and nothing more is expected from this wave?

I haven't seen any models showing something from this.

[Thunder44]

Let's see if TPC mentions this in their next TWO, and we'll see if we can take this thing seriously.

[cycloneye]

Let's see if TPC mentions this in their next TWO, and we'll see if we can take this thing seriously.

Unless it organizes more and have model support I dont think that they will mention it.

[OuterBanker]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 00/18.html

[Ola]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5fsu/fcst/archive/05062700/18.html

WTH is that?

[Nimbus]

The water in that area is warm enough although I doubt the warm layer is very deep yet. Not very much shear in the area either.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

Normally Climotological history would dictate that this little wave did not have a chance but the SST's are running several degrees higher this year.

https://www.navo.navy.mil/cgi-bin/graph ... 8/0-0-10/2

[Anonymous]

People need to remember, the ITCZ is running ahead of schedule, and that these waves typical in late July, and that Pattern could come sooner this year.

[Rainband]

If the shear and dry air let up

[cycloneye]

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN
THE VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
9N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WAVE.


The above is from the 2:05 PM Discussion from TPC.

[OuterBanker]

Ola,

Hope this helps explain mm5.

The PSU/NCAR mesoscale model (known as MM5) is a limited-area, nonhydrostatic, terrain-following sigma-coordinate model designed to simulate or predict mesoscale atmospheric circulation. The model is supported by several pre- and post-processing programs, which are referred to collectively as the MM5 modeling system. The MM5 modeling system software is mostly written in Fortran, and has been developed at Penn State and NCAR as a community mesoscale model with contributions from users worldwide.

The MM5 modeling system software is freely provided and supported by the Mesoscale Prediction Group in the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, NCAR (NCAR is the National Center for Atmospheric Research)


You can also read into the address that it is FSU version (Florida State Univ) mm5fsu.

All of these models are found here

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

[cycloneye]

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsww/ ... uszvau.htm

Off-topic but interesting that a 5.2 earthquake occured in the Tropical Atlantic not far from where this wave is.

[wxcrazytwo]

this has to effect that area and activity? There is too much energy that is release to not have some effect. I still think the boxing day quake changed earth's stability and climate..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its a Little MLC moving westward. It has no model support and is to low with lat.

[msbee]

this could bring some heavy rian though to the lower Caribbean islands and they can easily have mudlsides as a result.

[cycloneye]

Still hanging around tonight that little wave but it has grown a little since this morning.Let's see what appearence it has in the morning and if still has the weak circulation.

[Derecho]

Its a Little MLC moving westward. It has no model support and is to low with lat.

It's at 12N; there's nothing remotely wrong with that Latitude (Really nothing fundamentally wrong with any latitude above 4N, from a pure latitude perspective.)

[Derek Ortt]

12N is fine. Systems have formed in the Atlantic at 7N.

As we saw last year, you can get formation almost on the equator, or not on it if the background vorticity is sufficient. We don't see this in the Atl as there is no well-defined monsoon trough