Brownsville AFD on CV Tropical Wave

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KatDaddy
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Brownsville AFD on CV Tropical Wave

#1 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:12 pm

From the Brownsville AFD:

FURTHER EAST IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING A
TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF THE AFRICAN COASTLINE TO JUST EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE FOURTH OF JULY. REFER TO THE LATEST
DISCUSSIONS FROM HPC AND NHC CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL FEATURE.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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#2 Postby Swimdude » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:15 pm

I'm pretty sure the NHC hasn't said a thing about this wave yet. Even for an inevitably active season, it would be early for a storm to survive out there.
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#3 Postby Steve H. » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:40 pm

No it wouldn't. This is an anomalously warm year in the east/central atlantic and a strong ridge is expected to build west in tandem with the wave. It is certainly possible. 8-)
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#4 Postby Brent » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:50 pm

Wasn't Bertha in 1996 in July? Not saying that'll happen but I guess it's possible. Stranger things have happened.
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#5 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Mon Jun 27, 2005 5:37 pm

Bertha was the furthest east a tropical storm has formed in the first ten days in July.
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Re: Brownsville AFD on CV Tropical Wave

#6 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Jun 27, 2005 5:53 pm

KatDaddy wrote:From the Brownsville AFD:

FURTHER EAST IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING A
TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF THE AFRICAN COASTLINE TO JUST EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE FOURTH OF JULY. REFER TO THE LATEST
DISCUSSIONS FROM HPC AND NHC CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL FEATURE.


It would be one thing for say Miami or San Juan to even mention it but things must be real slow in Brownsville.
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Re: Brownsville AFD on CV Tropical Wave

#7 Postby Ola » Mon Jun 27, 2005 5:55 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
KatDaddy wrote:From the Brownsville AFD:

FURTHER EAST IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING A
TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF THE AFRICAN COASTLINE TO JUST EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE FOURTH OF JULY. REFER TO THE LATEST
DISCUSSIONS FROM HPC AND NHC CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL FEATURE.


It would be one thing for say Miami or San Juan to even mention it but things must be real slow in Brownsville.


LOL
I was thinking the same thing. What possible eefect could a wave apearing to track to the east of the island one week from now have on Brownsville? :eek:
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Re: Brownsville AFD on CV Tropical Wave

#8 Postby southerngale » Mon Jun 27, 2005 5:58 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
KatDaddy wrote:From the Brownsville AFD:

FURTHER EAST IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING A
TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF THE AFRICAN COASTLINE TO JUST EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE FOURTH OF JULY. REFER TO THE LATEST
DISCUSSIONS FROM HPC AND NHC CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL FEATURE.


It would be one thing for say Miami or San Juan to even mention it but things must be real slow in Brownsville.


Yep, hot and dry - I guess they could count cracks in the ground to pass the time.
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RE:

#9 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Jun 27, 2005 6:25 pm

Bertha formed on July 5th, 1996, so it could happen. However it is quite unlikely.


Hybridstorm_November2001
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#10 Postby SkeetoBite » Mon Jun 27, 2005 7:12 pm

Image
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Re: Brownsville AFD on CV Tropical Wave

#11 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Jun 27, 2005 8:13 pm

Ola wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
KatDaddy wrote:From the Brownsville AFD:

FURTHER EAST IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING A
TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF THE AFRICAN COASTLINE TO JUST EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE FOURTH OF JULY. REFER TO THE LATEST
DISCUSSIONS FROM HPC AND NHC CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL FEATURE.


It would be one thing for say Miami or San Juan to even mention it but things must be real slow in Brownsville.


LOL
I was thinking the same thing. What possible eefect could a wave apearing to track to the east of the island one week from now have on Brownsville? :eek:


unless it was aug/sept and the wave was heading due W at about 40 i would think the chance is nil.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#12 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jun 27, 2005 8:16 pm

We will have to wait because its way to earier + way to much shear/dry air. This part of the season has not started. In may not start for another 4 weeks.
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#13 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 27, 2005 8:38 pm

and even if something happened to develop out there it's VERY far from a any landmass. We shouldn't worry or even waster our time talking about it right now. We have weeks to watch it!
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Re: Brownsville AFD on CV Tropical Wave

#14 Postby dhweather » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:44 am

jlauderdal wrote:
KatDaddy wrote:From the Brownsville AFD:

FURTHER EAST IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING A
TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF THE AFRICAN COASTLINE TO JUST EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE FOURTH OF JULY. REFER TO THE LATEST
DISCUSSIONS FROM HPC AND NHC CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL FEATURE.


It would be one thing for say Miami or San Juan to even mention it but things must be real slow in Brownsville.


I think they've been stuck in "hot and dry" so long, they are desperate for
something, anything to happen.
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