BOC/Yucatan

Kelarie · #41 Postby **Kelarie** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 3:50 pm

Swimdude wrote:Houston had rain this afternoon. It was beautiful. Had that smell of an afternoon thunderstorm and everything. Ahhhhh...

I have to hate you. I have forgotten what rain smells like.... :cry:

I don't think it will ever rain in Central Texas again. I think it will be dry and desert like forever.... :eek:

Okay maybe not that meladramatic, but I miss the rain....

southerngale · #42 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 3:55 pm

It rained on me several times when I was out yesterday, but not a drop at my house so I had to water the yard yesterday. The ground is starting to crack.

It seems what is popping up is very scattered and consider yourself lucky if you happen to get a shower!

I wish that moisture down there would make it up here. We need it badly.

tw861 · #43 Postby **tw861** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 3:56 pm

Well it got a mention, sort of ?? Amazing.

I bet that if its still there tommorow morning it will get some attention.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on June 27, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Cloudiness and showers across the Gulf of Mexico are associated with
a surface trough. Tropical storm formation is not expected here or
elsewhere through Tuesday.

Forecaster Franklin

#44 Postby **loon** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 3:57 pm

Just for kicks, Floater2 has this area in its sights, in the upper right corner...don't know how long that will last, but atleast its something

edit: If you click on the winds checkbox, is it me or does it appear there is some spin?

#45 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:01 pm

tw861 wrote:Well it got a mention, sort of ?? Amazing.

I bet that if its still there tommorow morning it will get some attention.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on June 27, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Cloudiness and showers across the Gulf of Mexico are associated with
a surface trough. Tropical storm formation is not expected here or
elsewhere through Tuesday.

Forecaster Franklin

I knew they would at least mention it to cover their you know what. :lol:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #46 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:06 pm

That thing is developing slowly but surely. While Calvin is dealing with 30 knot shear with increasing shear. This has 5 knot shear. With decreasing shear to the north. It most likely will stay to the west/west-northwest over the next few days. Then make landfall over Mexico. Even if that is a MLC it should of been noted for a possible slow development with the decrease shear. The only real factor stoping it is it is close to land.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #47 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:23 pm

Station 42055 - Bay of Campeche

Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
12-meter discus buoy
ARES payload
22.01 N 94.05 W (22°01'02" N 94°02'45" W)

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period (APD): 3.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.4 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 72.0 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.0 °F

This is way to the northwest of the cirulation. It shows a northeast wind. Meaning the winds is blowing into low pressure.

#48 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:25 pm

This is the same system that has track from the Gulf of Honduras(Saturday) then over Yucatan yesterday. It has had a track-able cicr. in the lower levels most of the way, so yes Matt it's been moving WNW. I had thought it would bend more to the NW around the Bermuda High but nothing yet,maybe feeling the effects of Calvin.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #49 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:27 pm

Current Weather Conditions:
Ciudad Del Carmen , Mexico
(MMCE) 18-39N 091-48W

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Jun 27, 2005 - 02:45 PM EDTJun 27, 2005 - 01:45 PM CDTJun 27, 2005 - 12:45 PM MDTJun 27, 2005 - 11:45 AM PDTJun 27, 2005 - 10:45 AM ADTJun 27, 2005 - 09:45 AM HDT
2005.06.27 1845 UTC
Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 18 MPH (16 KT)
Visibility 6 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Haze
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
ob MMCE 271845Z 12016KT 6SM HZ BKN010 OVC080 27/24 A2985 RMK 8/51/

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCE.html
18 mph/16 knots out of the East-southeast 120 degrees.

#50 Postby **greg_kfdm_tv** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:28 pm

Center of low/mid level circulation near 19/92.6 or just offshore in the extreme southern BOC. Movement is to the west-northwest about 10 mph.

I think that there is a pretty good chance that this system will slowly develop. However, the ridge of high pressure over Texas is still quite strong and should keep any potential tropical cyclone well to the south of Texas likely moving inland near Tampico in less than 48 hours.

Unfortunately for rain starved Texas and Louisiana, little hope this week for any drought busting rainfall.

tw861 · #51 Postby **tw861** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:28 pm

Well, looking at a zoomed in shot on the above mentioned NASA site, if you look closely you can see the lower level clouds rotating counterclockwise around the center. If anybodys got a link to mexican surface data that might be helpful, I know the data down there is sparse but every little bit helps. I've got about a six hour loop going and I'm reasonably sure that this goes down to the surface or very close.

I'm a little shocked at the lack of mention on the latest TWO, surely if we can pick out this feature then they can see it also.

BTW, JB did an afternoon update and thinks there is a lowlevel vort max moving NW into the GOM in the vicinity of 18/92. He thinks if it continues to develop it maybe moves NW to around 25/95 and then turns west. JB is big on analogs and compares the current wewather maps with Alice in 1954, Audry(forgot what year), and Bret in 1999. All three came from the same basic area.

Normandy · #52 Postby **Normandy** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:29 pm

Its looking decent....but really i dont think itll develop too fast.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #53 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:36 pm

http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/int_a ... BASSETERRE

#54 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:37 pm

greg_kfdm_tv wrote:Center of low/mid level circulation near 19/92.6 or just offshore in the extreme southern BOC. Movement is to the west-northwest about 10 mph.

I think that there is a pretty good chance that this system will slowly develop. However, the ridge of high pressure over Texas is still quite strong and should keep any potential tropical cyclone well to the south of Texas likely moving inland near Tampico in less than 48 hours.

Unfortunately for rain starved Texas and Louisiana, little hope this week for any drought busting rainfall.

But the rain is so close that I can smell it. :cry:

Galvestongirl · #55 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 4:39 pm

o.k., so what is it going to take to make this ridge break down. It seems to have been in place all month and I keep waiting for it to go away.

#56 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 5:10 pm

Here's a GARP image with enhanced IR imagery (it looks better than visible imagery at the 256 color resolution I must use at home). There has been a clear LLC over Mexico all day, as indicated by the two stations down there. Looks like it's still on the coast as of 21Z. But convection is now on the decrease. There's a slight chance it could develop before moving inland into Mexico on Wednesday. Doesn't look likely that the U.S. will be affected.

Oh, and I just got 0.25" rain here in southwest Houston, making nearly 1.5" for June as compared to 0.08 at IAH.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/boc.gif">

#57 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 5:38 pm

Thanks for the image wxman57 8-)

tw861 · #58 Postby **tw861** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 6:46 pm

Using wxman57's picture above and looking at various sat. pics as the sun sets it appears to me that our little low pressure area is pretty much stationary right on the coast. Some pretty good convection coming off the Yucatan ne of the center, it will be interesting to wach and see if this wraps in towards the center tonight.

#59 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 6:53 pm

I believe that if the center is over land, it will be pulled N by the convection forming in the BOC. I expect this will develop tonight in earnest. Barring the outflow boundary from the Yucatan seabreeze thunderstorms to the East...

#60 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 27, 2005 6:56 pm

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WET WEATHER PATTERN COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVECTING N FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N26W TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN CLUSTERS E OF 93W TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE E GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA. FAIR WEATHER
REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF W OF 93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS CENTERED
ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NE TO
BEYOND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N93W PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
FAR W GULF W OF 93W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH ITS
CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MEANWHILE EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO MOVE N TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND DOMINATE THE
ENTIRE GULF.

Nada,nothing in the discussion (8:05 PM EDT) from TPC about BOC and circulation there.

BOC/Yucatan

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