BOC/Yucatan

[dhweather]

The entire GOM is a mess this afternoon. Yes, looks to be some kind of weak circulation near the Mexican coast in the BOC. Ridge over Texas should stear it into Mexico though. Following the wave axis further north, numerous showers stretch from the Yucatan Channel to the central GOM. These showers look to be drifting NW along with the wave. Hopefully this precipt will make its way into the N GOM and provide some drought relief......MGC

Amen to that! Lord, we need some rain. I know our brethren in
Louisiana and Texas do as well!!

[Derek Ortt]

definately a small circ going on down there. However, the atmosphere just to the nroth seems far too hostile to allow this to do anything

[Swimdude]

Houston had rain this afternoon. It was beautiful. Had that smell of an afternoon thunderstorm and everything. Ahhhhh...

[GalvestonDuck]

Nuffin' here.

[dhweather]

The New Orleans AFD isn't promising for any rain or tropical development
this week.



000
FXUS64 KLIX 271938 CCA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
220 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...SPOTTY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES NEAR MAX HEATING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ALONG LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE NWP MODELS OFFER
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE PATTERN HOLDS OVER THE LOWER
SOUTHWEST STATES. STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LOOKS TO REMAIN AT THE
SURFACE AS A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD. AS A RESULT...NOT PLANNING ON TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RUN IN THE
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED CAT WITH THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM
CONFINED TO WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE WEEKEND PERIOD MAY OFFER
SOME CHANGE AS THE GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT TRIES TO LIFT ALLOWING THE
RIDGE PATTERN OUT SOUTHWEST TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD. WITH THE
MARITIME FETCH OPENING...THIS MAY ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 92 72 93 / 20 30 20 30
BTR 72 92 73 93 / 20 30 20 30
MSY 75 91 76 92 / 20 40 20 30
GPT 72 90 73 91 / 20 40 20 30
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

[tw861]

Looking at a zoomed up shot from:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Go to 1km visible, select 15 or 20 images, 100% quality, and med zoom. Click on the point you want to center the image at and see what you think.

There is certainly a pronounced spin emerging off of the coast moving NW. The question then is this a mid level or low level spin? Hard to tell since most of the lower level clouds are obscured by the higher clouds. It does seem that through some of the breaks over land just south of the center there are some low clouds moving from west to east but I wouldn't bet the farm on it just yet.

Also seems that some new thunderstorms are going up just west and south of the supposed center.

JB is supposed to post an update later this afternoon, it will be interesting to see what he has to say.

[Stormcenter]

It's hard to believe that with all of the moisture in the GOM right now the NWS offices in Houston and along the NW and N central GOM coastline doesn't believe there will be no more than a 30% chance of rain this week. Is it just supposed to dissipate?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

18.5/92.5 there appears to be a pretty nice MLC with nice wraping around the north to the west side. I'm not sure of a LLC. It is fairly close to the coast but it seems to be moving just to the west-northwest. The enviroment to the north is not favable. But remember we would have to be sure of a well defined LLC before we can start calling for a upgrade.


Also the Gfs shows something so its worth watching. It shows it moving west to west-northwest. Most likely landfall Mexico.



Convection over the last few frames seems to be flaring.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now this is interesting a upper high with 20 knot decrease in overall Shear. It is looking favable over the system.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

But look to the north thats 40 knot shear. If it stays south of 20. It has a chance.

[loon]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

But the shear is weakening...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It almost is impressive to me as Tropical storm Calvin is. It has a nice cirulation not quite as tight Calvins. This is looking at the storms on the same sat. We will see.

[Normandy]

It has two places to go.....into huge shear and land.....doesn't look good.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Please look at a shear map. The upper high is forming over the system to the south of 20 north. While the shear of over 40 knots is over the central Gulf of Mexico. If this system moves westward like the gfs says it would have a few days before landfall. In if it stays below the shear to the north it will force a outflow jet.

We will see like I said above. Also this has much more chance of developing then any Cape verde wave right now.

[Normandy]

We will see like I said above. Also this has much more chance of developing then any Cape verde wave right now.

Well....thats one thing I agree with.

[PTrackerLA]

Funny not a single mention of this feature in Houston, Lake Charles, or New Orleans AFD's. You wonder since the NHC hasn't mentioned anything if they even know what's down there. The circulation looks very pronounced to me on satellite and it looks like it's even in the lower levels now.

[dhweather]

It looks more mid-level to me, but also shows signs of deepening.
Watch the clouds around it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

PtrackLa I agree. It looks good. Slowly getting better oreganized.

[loon]

It seems everyone is downing this thing because of the shear. My untrained examination of the latest shear maps seems to me that the shear is decreasing, from the last 3hr, and 6hr mappings.....am I just reading this wrong?

cheers,
loon

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Loon, your right a upper high has formed over this with 20 knot shear decrease. In even the shear to the north has went down 5 or so knots. The Shear over Calvin is alot stronger try 30 knots. While on the same coin it is 5 to 10 on this.

[dhweather]

As the ULL in the NW GOM moves away, the shear will decrease.