Long range but very interesting

[cycloneye]

First time slots of 18z are comming out the above at 120 hours so more later.

[cycloneye]

There is the low pressure north of Puerto Rico while another low emerges western africa.More soon as the run finalizes all the times.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

18z run complete as you can see at loop above.I see not a threat to the east coast as the first low goes north from near Puerto Rico but shows a storm.Also a couple of lows move from West Africa.Now I want to see more models showing this and more trends from the GFS showing this.

[air360]

yes no threat to the EC as of now...but remember how far into the future this is. It is still in question if these storms will even form or not!

[cycloneye]

yes no threat to the EC as of now...but remember how far into the future this is. It is still in question if these storms will even form or not!

Agreed.These are only model solutions and not have to come in reality but what is needed is a consensus of the global models.Also the models dont take into account sal events that may unfold and those events are detrimental for development.The bottomline is to watch next runs from this and other models to see a trend on way or another.

[krysof]

it's still too early for this, Usually EC threats occur in August, and I think it peaks either early or mid september which is when the season peaks

that's when the sst's peak off the east coast, and this year could be very intresting, I think the EC may have something big coming in maybe a month or more.

[Scorpion]

Yes but it can be like 1996 when the CV season started early with Bertha, and that hit the East Coast. Bring on the CV season!

[slowjoe]

Am I correct that this supposed system hasn't even made it out of africa yet?

[cycloneye]

Am I correct that this supposed system hasn't even made it out of africa yet?

No not yet out there.

[air360]

yea...1996 was a big year for Eastern NC. We had both Fran and Bertha and a couple more i think that year...

no, i dont think it is out there yet...i think the devlopment for these would not even begin until late this week if im not mistaken

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yeah but Bertha didn't form until July 5th, and even then it was one of the earliest CV storms on record (if not the earliest). With that stated, it is highly environmentally unfavorable for such development to take place this time of year. But who knows, we are dealing with the tropics here. Bears watching that much is for sure though.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[air360]

yep well put Hybridstorm

[Guest]

Yes I know that long range forecasts are not good but in this 6 z run of GFS shows a low pressure in the eastern atlantic moving west and later westnorthwest getting a bit deeper just NE of the Leewards and deepens more between Bermuda and Puerto Rico.Now let's wait for trends of consistency from this model and more important if other global models join and a consensus builds.

Interesting because I just noticed that conditions have become favourable for the wave exiting Africa to develop. I posted links in another thread at http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=65331

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

6z GFS loop.

Trend at this run is for no big developments.Only weak lows moving from east to west from west africa.

[OuterBanker]

The GFS 14 days out, now that should be accurate. Couldn't even predict what we had 14 hrs out this past weekend. If they get close I will be impressed and will see if it can be used to predict lottery numbers.
Then again there was Bertha a few years ago so not entirely out of the realm of possibilities.