Tropical Depression Calvin

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 1:47 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E (EP032005) ON 20050626 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050626 1800 050627 0600 050627 1800 050628 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.7N 98.0W 14.7N 99.8W 15.6N 102.2W 16.3N 105.4W
BAMM 13.7N 98.0W 14.7N 99.5W 15.6N 101.7W 16.4N 104.6W
LBAR 13.7N 98.0W 14.6N 99.5W 15.9N 101.7W 17.4N 104.4W
SHIP 30KTS 40KTS 50KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 40KTS 50KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050628 1800 050629 1800 050630 1800 050701 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.8N 109.3W 16.5N 117.5W 16.0N 124.8W 16.6N 132.0W
BAMM 16.9N 108.4W 16.7N 116.7W 15.8N 123.9W 15.7N 130.7W
LBAR 18.9N 107.5W 22.5N 113.8W 25.4N 118.3W 29.7N 119.1W
SHIP 58KTS 49KTS 37KTS 30KTS
DSHP 58KTS 49KTS 37KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 98.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 97.2W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 96.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Here it is as the models iniciate with 30 kts.First advisory will be at 2 PM PDT or 5 PM EDT.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 1:48 pm

Wahoo we got something to watch!!! 8-)

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 1:49 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

More confirmation of formation of TD3-E as NRL changed to noname.

#4 Postby **dhweather** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:10 pm

It'll be Calvin soon, probably later this evening.

Scorpion · #5 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:52 pm

No

.

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:55 pm

Scorpion wrote:No .

LOL Chill man. Relax, because...come August, the Atlantic will be popping out Hurricanes like Carla popped out babies on Cheers.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #7 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:56 pm

At least its something to track and or watch. Intill the Atlantic can become more favable. Remember the Pacific has its season earlier. In believe me the Eastern Pacific has been know to make seasons that go above 20 storms. In can also have very powerful hurricanes. Thats why we are hear to watch cyclones. The Atlantic will likely have a active season to.

#8 Postby **drezee** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:57 pm

Here is the floater:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #9 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 3:09 pm

Tropical Depression Three (03E / 03E) (26/1800Z)
Position: 13.7°N 98°W (240 miles SSE from Acapulco, Mexico)
Movement: NW at 6 mph
Winds: 35 mph
Pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62''
Dvorak Est: T2.0/2.0

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 3:29 pm

I think that TS warnings will be needed for portions of the Mexican coast due to the system being close to land.

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 3:31 pm

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1

Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on June 26, 2005

After a slow and unsteady genesis period...the tropical disturbance
south-southeast of Acapulco Mexico has become well enough organized
to be upgraded to Tropical Depression Three-E. Satellite imagery
shows a broad low-level circulation with bursts of strong
convection to the west and northwest of the center. Satellite
intensity estimates are 35 kt from AFWA...and 30 kt from TAFB and
SAB. Based on the estimates and the somewhat ragged appearance of
the convection...the initial intensity is set to 30 kt. There is a
ship report of 34 kt north of the center. However...the associated
wind direction...pressure...and wave height appear suspect...and
the overall reliability of the report is uncertain.

The initial motion is a very uncertain 310/5. The depression is
south of a low-level ridge...with water vapor imagery showing the
southern end of a mid/upper-level trough over the eastern portion
of northern Mexico. This pattern has created a weak steering
pattern for the system...which has not moved much over the past
three days. Large-scale models suggest the trough should weaken
over the next few days as a ridge gradually builds over northern
Mexico. This should allow the cyclone to gradually accelerate
toward the west-northwest. While the models generally agree on the
overall track...there are major differences in the speed...with the
GFS moving the system much faster than the UKMET...NOGAPS...and
Canadian. The track forecast will compromise on the speed between
these models and is in best agreement with the GFDL.
The depression is currently under moderate easterly shear.
Large-scale models suggest this should persist through the forecast
period...which would allow the cyclone to gradually strengthen
until it hits cooler sea surface temperatures in about 72 hr. The
intensity forecast is a compromise between the stronger GFDL and
the weaker SHIPS models.

Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system in case it comes close enough to the coast to spread tropical
storm winds onshore. Rainbands associated with the cyclone will
likely impact portions of the Mexican coast over the next two days.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/2100z 13.9n 98.3w 30 kt
12hr VT 27/0600z 14.4n 99.1w 35 kt
24hr VT 27/1800z 15.4n 101.3w 45 kt
36hr VT 28/0600z 16.1n 103.5w 55 kt
48hr VT 28/1800z 16.6n 105.9w 65 kt
72hr VT 29/1800z 17.0n 110.0w 65 kt
96hr VT 30/1800z 17.5n 113.0w 45 kt
120hr VT 01/1800z 17.5n 116.0w 30 kt

They forecast a hurricane from this system.As I said before TS warnings may be required as it is close to the coast.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #12 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 3:33 pm

How strong doe's this appear to you Cycloneye or senorpepr.

Personally I think that it has perfect enviroment to work with. With the gfdl taking it up to 100 knots. But the ship only 55 knots. Big differences.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 3:34 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:How strong doe's this appear to you Cycloneye or senorpepr.

Personally I think that it has perfect enviroment to work with. With the gfdl taking it up to 100 knots. But the ship only 55 knots. Big differences.

See advisory Intensity forecast.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 3:35 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #15 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 3:36 pm

The convection looks intense to me. This might be a boarder line system already. Also it is with in the most favable part of the Eastern Pacific. In if it where to move to the north. It would get fairly close to land.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 3:37 pm

Statement as of 21:00Z on June 26, 2005

interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

Tropical depression center located near 13.9n 98.3w at 26/2100z
position accurate within 45 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 5 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1003 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 13.9n 98.3w at 26/2100z
at 26/1800z center was located near 13.7n 98.0w

forecast valid 27/0600z 14.4n 99.1w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 0se 0sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 27/1800z 15.4n 101.3w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 40se 40sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 28/0600z 16.1n 103.5w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.
34 kt... 90ne 60se 60sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 28/1800z 16.6n 105.9w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 30se 30sw 50nw.
34 kt...100ne 75se 75sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 29/1800z 17.0n 110.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 30se 30sw 50nw.
34 kt...100ne 75se 75sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 200 nm
on day 4 and 250 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 30/1800z 17.5n 113.0w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.

Outlook valid 01/1800z 17.5n 116.0w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.9n 98.3w

next advisory at 27/0300z

forecaster Beven

x-y-no · #17 Postby **x-y-no** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 3:41 pm

It's moving slowly NW at the moment, but it should turn more westerly as a mid-level ridge builds north of it. I don't see this as any threat to Mexico, although I think it probaly will get to TS strength by the morning.

x-y-no · #18 Postby **x-y-no** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 3:44 pm

Hmmm ... TPC takes it up to 65 knots sustained ...

That makes synoptic sense. The ridge building in to the north will steer it to a pretty favorable outflow regime. And there's certainly no shortage of warm water out there.

Jan

Hurricane · #19 Postby **Hurricane** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 4:15 pm

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.

Could someone explain, what AFWA, TAFB and SAB means?

Thank you

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #20 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Jun 26, 2005 4:31 pm

Hurricane wrote:SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.

Could someone explain, what AFWA, TAFB and SAB means?

Thank you

The three locations are just agencies that monitor and track tropical cyclones. They also provide satellite intensity estimates (aka Dvorak estimates) for global cyclones.

SAB - Satellite Analysis Branch (Washington, DC)
TAFB - Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (Miami, FL)
AFWA - Air Force Weather Agency (Offutt AFB / Bellevue, NE)

Tropical Depression Calvin

Tropical Depression Calvin

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