Invest 92E up at EPAC,Calvin on the way?

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cycloneye
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#21 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2005 8:20 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP922005) ON 20050625 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050625 1200 050626 0000 050626 1200 050627 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 98.2W 14.5N 99.6W 15.0N 101.2W 15.4N 103.3W
BAMM 14.0N 98.2W 14.5N 99.5W 15.0N 101.1W 15.5N 102.9W
LBAR 14.0N 98.2W 14.7N 99.8W 15.9N 101.6W 17.1N 103.4W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050627 1200 050628 1200 050629 1200 050630 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 106.3W 16.1N 113.9W 16.1N 121.0W 15.8N 127.4W
BAMM 16.0N 105.3W 16.9N 111.3W 17.6N 117.9W 18.1N 124.2W
LBAR 19.0N 105.3W 22.9N 108.6W 26.2N 112.3W 28.7N 113.1W
SHIP 56KTS 54KTS 44KTS 34KTS
DSHP 56KTS 54KTS 44KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 98.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 95.9W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 95.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

For those who are following the EPAC here are the latest model plots 12:00z for 92E.
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#22 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Sat Jun 25, 2005 1:04 pm

dhweather wrote:The EPAC is on the verge of going up 3-1. :grrr:

...soon to be only 3-2. :)
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#23 Postby dhweather » Sat Jun 25, 2005 2:29 pm

I thnk it's more like 3-1. *blah*
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#24 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jun 25, 2005 3:24 pm

Invest (N/A/ 92E) (25/1800Z)
Position: 12.6°N 97.2°W (335 miles SSE from Acapulco, Mexico)
Movement: W at 5 mph
Winds: 30 mph
Pressure: 1005 mb / 29.68''
Dvorak Est: Too Weak
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#25 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 25, 2005 6:34 pm

This area looks like 1.5/1.5 if not as high as 2.0. This has banding with convection over a cirualtion. Also quickscats show a cirualtion. The models develop it. I think we will have a depression at 8pm. But thats using the Gulf of Mexico Stardard :cry:
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#26 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 25, 2005 7:11 pm

25/2345 UTC 13.1N 97.7W T1.0/1.0 92E
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#27 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jun 25, 2005 8:40 pm

Invest (N/A / 92E) (26/0000Z)
Position: 12.5°N 97.2°W (340 miles SSE from Acapulco, Mexico)
Movement: WSW at 3 mph
Winds: 30 mph
Pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65''
Dvorak Est: T1.0/1.0
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#28 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 25, 2005 8:44 pm

So its moving west-southwest.
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#29 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 26, 2005 7:50 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP922005) ON 20050626 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050626 1200 050627 0000 050627 1200 050628 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 97.7W 14.0N 99.0W 15.1N 101.1W 16.2N 103.8W
BAMM 12.8N 97.7W 13.9N 99.0W 14.9N 100.9W 15.9N 103.4W
LBAR 12.8N 97.7W 13.5N 99.1W 14.5N 101.2W 16.0N 103.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050628 1200 050629 1200 050630 1200 050701 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.9N 107.3W 17.6N 115.5W 18.2N 123.8W 20.1N 131.5W
BAMM 16.7N 106.6W 17.5N 114.2W 17.8N 122.2W 18.6N 130.4W
LBAR 17.4N 106.8W 20.7N 113.6W 24.5N 119.0W 25.3N 120.7W
SHIP 48KTS 44KTS 34KTS 24KTS
DSHP 48KTS 44KTS 34KTS 24KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 97.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 96.8W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 96.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The 12:00z run.
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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 26, 2005 8:29 am

Image
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#31 Postby dhweather » Sun Jun 26, 2005 11:12 am

Calvin is only hours away!
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#32 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jun 26, 2005 11:16 am

It looks good. Also the LLC has tucked under the covnection.
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#33 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jun 26, 2005 11:22 am

I wonder why they haven't upgraded this yet?
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#34 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jun 26, 2005 11:24 am

I don't have a clue on why thunder44. Maybe because the center was slightly displaced to the southeast of the convection. But it appears that it being tooken care of.
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#35 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jun 26, 2005 11:59 am

Hopefully Mr Shear takes care of soon to be Calvin.
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#36 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Sun Jun 26, 2005 12:27 pm

Image
I've already updated the scoreboard, lol. Once E-Pac disturbances get going, there's pretty much no doubt that they'll form. :(
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#37 Postby dhweather » Sun Jun 26, 2005 1:19 pm

I love the scoreboard! :lol:
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#38 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 26, 2005 1:22 pm

26/1745 UTC 13.9N 97.7W T2.0/2.0 92E -- East Pacific Ocean

For sure it will be TD3-E at 2 PM PDT.
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#39 Postby dhweather » Sun Jun 26, 2005 1:33 pm

I agree Luis, we are only hours away.
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