ABPZ20 KNHC 250347
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2005
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH OF HUATULCO
MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ IS
LOCATED ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
My option the convection has went poof. On night time satellite shows that the LLC has become slightly less defined. The models still show development. In the ship model takes this up to become the first hurricane. I think this might reflare by morning. Also it has great outflow...
10pm pst Eastern Pacific
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92E
INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 25
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 13.0 96.3 280./ 4.1
6 12.7 96.5 213./ 4.2
12 12.8 97.4 278./ 8.9
18 12.9 98.0 280./ 6.0
24 13.2 98.5 300./ 5.7
30 13.4 99.3 283./ 7.9
36 13.6 100.4 281./11.1
42 13.7 101.4 275./ 9.2
48 13.8 102.5 277./10.8
54 13.9 103.7 276./11.2
60 14.1 104.8 278./11.6
66 14.3 105.6 283./ 7.6
72 14.5 106.2 291./ 6.6
78 14.8 106.6 305./ 4.6
84 15.4 107.1 323./ 7.0
90 15.9 107.4 325./ 5.9
96 16.3 107.8 312./ 5.8
102 16.6 108.1 322./ 4.8
108 17.0 108.6 309./ 5.3
114 17.2 109.0 293./ 4.8
120 17.5 109.4 302./ 5.0
126 17.6 109.8 299./ 3.6
000
WTNT80 EGRR 250519
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.06.2005
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 12.1N 97.0W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.06.2005 12.1N 97.0W WEAK
12UTC 26.06.2005 12.9N 98.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.06.2005 13.6N 98.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.06.2005 13.5N 99.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.06.2005 13.4N 100.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 28.06.2005 13.8N 101.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 29.06.2005 14.6N 103.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.06.2005 15.6N 104.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.06.2005 16.8N 106.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.06.2005 17.3N 109.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.07.2005 18.2N 111.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 9.7N 82.2W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.06.2005 9.7N 82.2W WEAK
00UTC 28.06.2005 10.4N 81.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.06.2005 9.8N 82.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.06.2005 10.3N 85.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.06.2005 8.7N 87.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.06.2005 9.2N 88.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2005 9.9N 90.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92E
INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 25
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 13.0 96.3 280./ 4.1
6 12.7 96.5 213./ 4.2
12 12.8 97.4 278./ 8.9
18 12.9 98.0 280./ 6.0
24 13.2 98.5 300./ 5.7
30 13.4 99.3 283./ 7.9
36 13.6 100.4 281./11.1
42 13.7 101.4 275./ 9.2
48 13.8 102.5 277./10.8
54 13.9 103.7 276./11.2
60 14.1 104.8 278./11.6
66 14.3 105.6 283./ 7.6
72 14.5 106.2 291./ 6.6
78 14.8 106.6 305./ 4.6
84 15.4 107.1 323./ 7.0
90 15.9 107.4 325./ 5.9
96 16.3 107.8 312./ 5.8
102 16.6 108.1 322./ 4.8
108 17.0 108.6 309./ 5.3
114 17.2 109.0 293./ 4.8
120 17.5 109.4 302./ 5.0
126 17.6 109.8 299./ 3.6
000
WTNT80 EGRR 250519
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.06.2005
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 12.1N 97.0W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.06.2005 12.1N 97.0W WEAK
12UTC 26.06.2005 12.9N 98.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.06.2005 13.6N 98.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.06.2005 13.5N 99.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.06.2005 13.4N 100.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 28.06.2005 13.8N 101.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 29.06.2005 14.6N 103.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.06.2005 15.6N 104.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.06.2005 16.8N 106.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.06.2005 17.3N 109.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.07.2005 18.2N 111.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 9.7N 82.2W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.06.2005 9.7N 82.2W WEAK
00UTC 28.06.2005 10.4N 81.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.06.2005 9.8N 82.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.06.2005 10.3N 85.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.06.2005 8.7N 87.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.06.2005 9.2N 88.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2005 9.9N 90.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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