WTPN21 PHNC 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N4 95.8W2 TO 13.9N3 99.4W2
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 242345Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N4 95.8W2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.0N 95.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO ANGEL, MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
BANDING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260200Z0.//
A formation alert for Eastern Pacific system
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