94L is up again

[cycloneye]

27.0N LONCUR = 74.0W

The models start the 18:00 UTC plots at 27.0n-74.0w a position much more north than the 23.7n-76.1w this morning.

[senorpepr]

Invest (94L)
27.0N 74.0W (255mi ENE of Nassau, Bahamas)
Movement: N at 16 mph
Winds: 30 mph
Pressure: 1011mb / 29.85"

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I see the center near where the models show it. Appears to becoming better oreganized/Defined.

[Thunder44]

BAMM and BAMD show a threat to Eastern North Carolina and then up into VA/MD/DE. LBAR and A98E have it missing the U.S.

With system developing further north, than a North Carolina to New England threat maybe more reasonable.

[vbhoutex]

I'm gonna have to trust the experts on this one because I can't pick it up on the visibles. Must be a very diffuse broad circulation or someone tell me what I am missing.

Looks like the ULL that was over FL is now moving WSW out over the GOM. Could make for some interesting blob watching later in the weekend if it and the SW end of 94L start interacting over the S GOM or NW Carib.

[Trader Ron]

TWC sure gave it short schrift at 5:50 PM.

[TampaFl]

I'm gonna have to trust the experts on this one because I can't pick it up on the visibles. Must be a very diffuse broad circulation or someone tell me what I am missing.

Looks like the ULL that was over FL is now moving WSW out over the GOM. Could make for some interesting blob watching later in the weekend if it and the SW end of 94L start interacting over the S GOM or NW Carib.

Agree vbhoutex. Could the ULL over the East Gulf pull the system back towards the west?

Robert

[vbhoutex]

Yes that is what I expect it to do. Initially I thought if the system developed it would be a GA landfall, but now that they are saying it is developing further north than I thought it was I may have to go with either a SC/NC state line landfall or north from there to a brush off the outer banks.

[Derek Ortt]

this is likely to come inland either in GA, or SC late on Sunday or early Mon is the way I am seeing it. Earlier, it looked like an early Sunday landfall, but with the position being farther east, it will take longer to reach the coast.

With the building ridge to the north, and the UL dropping to the SW, a bend back to the west is almost certain due to the steering flow. I'd be very surprised if this made 33N, much less 35N

[gkrangers]

It'll hit Philly as a Cat 4.

[wxman57]

Here's a GARP image with satellite (sorry about the 256 color mode on my VNC connection), METAR, and ship/buoy data plotted for 21Z this afternoon. I put the red crosshairs on 27N/74W. There's a drifting buoy just to the north of that point with a 1014.7 mb presure. Absolutely no sign of any LLC out there. Lower pressures are located well west of that 27N/74W point. I suppose that one could argue that there is a very broad, weak area of low pressure centered near Andros Island, much farther west of where the models were initialized and well away from any showers.

This is just basically the top part of a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low. Such interactions CAN lead to LLC formation (hybrid system) given time. But this sysetm won't have too much time before it begins moving inland. Already, squalls are nearing the GA/SC coasts. This should just be a minor wind event and heavy rain event for the southeast.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturb.gif">

[krysof]

if it were to go any further north than the carolinas, then it wouldn't effect anyone and rapidly diminish because of the very cool waters off the mid atlantic coast

[Derek Ortt]

I'm seeing signs of an MLC in that area, which may be why the models were initialized there. With the UL to the west, I would not be surprised to see a new LLC formed closer to the convection, on the downstream side of the UL feature

[wxman57]

I'm seeing signs of an MLC in that area, which may be why the models were initialized there. With the UL to the west, I would not be surprised to see a new LLC formed closer to the convection, on the downstream side of the UL feature

Yeah, I see that MLC, too, Derek. But at the speed it's racing northward (the MLC) it will be inland within 24 hours (or less). Not much time to organize.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah it will likely not have time to do anything. In most likely because it is feeding off both tropical/Extratropical sources that it will not be a pure tropical cyclone. Its time to watch the system in the Eastern Pacific.

[cycloneye]

[Thunder44]

Yeah it will likely not have time to do anything. In most likely because it is feeding off both tropical/Extratropical sources that it will not be a pure tropical cyclone. Its time to watch the system in the Eastern Pacific.

The EPAC system will probably have same fate as Beatriz.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050625 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050625 0000 050625 1200 050626 0000 050626 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.8N 74.3W 30.4N 75.3W 32.9N 76.6W 35.3N 77.5W
BAMM 27.8N 74.3W 30.1N 75.6W 32.2N 76.6W 34.3N 77.3W
A98E 27.8N 74.3W 29.4N 74.7W 32.1N 74.9W 34.6N 74.8W
LBAR 27.8N 74.3W 29.8N 74.8W 31.6N 75.3W 33.3N 75.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050627 0000 050628 0000 050629 0000 050630 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 37.4N 77.9W 40.8N 75.9W 43.4N 70.6W 46.0N 60.7W
BAMM 36.0N 77.7W 39.2N 76.6W 42.2N 73.2W 44.9N 64.4W
A98E 36.5N 74.3W 39.2N 73.3W 41.5N 68.4W 45.0N 56.2W
LBAR 34.5N 75.2W 36.2N 74.0W 37.6N 72.2W 38.9N 68.0W
SHIP 41KTS 36KTS 31KTS 25KTS
DSHP 31KTS 29KTS 30KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.8N LONCUR = 74.3W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 25.6N LONM12 = 74.0W DIRM12 = 358DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 22.1N LONM24 = 74.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



00:00 UTC model plots for a tropical or subtropical system.

[senorpepr]

Invest (94L / N/A) (25/0000Z)
Position: 27.8°N 74.3°W (275 miles NE from Nassau, Bahamas)
Movement: N at 10 mph
Winds: 30 mph
Pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83''
Dvorak Est: Too Weak

[air360]

looking at that model output it almost looks like it could almost miss the coast. What im trying to understand is why people are saying a GA/SC landfall if those models are showing at LEAST a central NC landfall.