Invest 92E up at EPAC,Calvin on the way?

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Will this be Calvin down the road?

[Scorpion]

Boooo. Hopefully it gets sheared to death.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP922005) ON 20050624 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050624 1200 050625 0000 050625 1200 050626 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 96.0W 12.2N 97.5W 12.8N 99.0W 13.6N 100.4W
BAMM 12.0N 96.0W 12.2N 97.3W 12.6N 98.6W 13.3N 100.1W
LBAR 12.0N 96.0W 12.1N 97.5W 12.9N 99.2W 14.0N 101.3W
SHIP 20KTS 29KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 20KTS 29KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050626 1200 050627 1200 050628 1200 050629 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 101.9W 16.0N 106.1W 17.7N 112.1W 19.1N 118.5W
BAMM 14.2N 101.8W 15.8N 106.1W 17.0N 112.2W 17.7N 119.0W
LBAR 14.9N 103.3W 18.0N 107.5W 21.2N 111.7W 24.0N 116.0W
SHIP 56KTS 63KTS 55KTS 47KTS
DSHP 56KTS 63KTS 55KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 96.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 95.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 94.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


First model plots for 92E has it as a strong storm in 36 hours.

[HURAKAN]

First model plots for 92E has it as a strong storm in 36 hours.

Almost a hurricane by one knot.

[dhweather]

I'm sure it'll develop. The score *might* be 3-2, or 3-1
after June, with EPAC in the lead.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Some of the models also develop another behind it. Can you say its possible for 4-1?

[krysof]

Not yet- It's still June.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Why do you say not yet? We got a invest, with model saying there might be another behind it. Also the Atlatnic system might not develop.

[krysof]

your pushing it in the future, let things happen first with one system, before already forecasting another system unless this was late July and August.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The models foreacast this not me. Please lay off

[dhweather]

I don't have a great deal of faith in any of the models right now,
they've been doing some really weird stuff as of late.

Yeah, I know, convective feedback.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here is one. Take a look at any visisble in you can see that it is looking better. Then the Gfs also forms a system after 72 hours.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP922005) ON 20050624 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050624 1800 050625 0600 050625 1800 050626 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 12.0N 96.5W 12.3N 97.9W 13.0N 99.2W 13.7N 100.5W

BAMM 12.0N 96.5W 12.3N 97.6W 12.6N 98.8W 13.1N 100.3W

LBAR 12.0N 96.5W 12.2N 97.8W 13.0N 99.4W 14.2N 101.4W

SHIP 20KTS 29KTS 38KTS 48KTS

DSHP 20KTS 29KTS 38KTS 48KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050626 1800 050627 1800 050628 1800 050629 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 14.5N 102.3W 15.8N 107.7W 16.5N 115.4W 16.4N 122.7W

BAMM 13.7N 102.0W 14.6N 106.9W 14.9N 113.1W 14.4N 118.7W

LBAR 15.2N 103.4W 19.0N 107.6W 22.4N 111.7W 25.2N 115.7W

SHIP 57KTS 63KTS 56KTS 50KTS

DSHP 57KTS 63KTS 56KTS 50KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 96.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT

LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 95.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT

LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 94.0W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

I'm not talking about the Atlantic. The Eastern Pacific peak is a little earlier.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Some of the models also develop another behind it. Can you say its possible for 4-1?

No worries. The E-Pac always gets things going about this time. June and July is to them what August and September is to us. So by the time we get hot, they're quieting down.

[krysof]

Ok, I'll lay off, but I never realized how sensitive people are here.

[krysof]

Also hoping that the hurricanes that form are fish storms. I don't want any damage done. I hope everyone feels the same way.

[dhweather]

Also hoping that the hurricane that form are fish storms. I don't want any damage done. I hope everyone feels the same way.

I'm sure that most do. Hurricanes are fun to track, are extremely
interesting in their nature, and fun to talk about.

But landfalling major storms are NOT fun for anybody.

A TS is fun for me on occasion. I liked Bill (2003)!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP922005) ON 20050625 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050625 0000 050625 1200 050626 0000 050626 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 95.8W 13.4N 96.9W 14.3N 98.1W 15.2N 99.4W
BAMM 13.0N 95.8W 13.5N 96.9W 14.3N 98.1W 15.0N 99.7W
LBAR 13.0N 95.8W 13.3N 97.0W 14.5N 98.6W 15.9N 100.3W
SHIP 25KTS 36KTS 47KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 36KTS 47KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050627 0000 050628 0000 050629 0000 050630 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.1N 101.2W 17.5N 107.2W 18.4N 115.8W 19.1N 123.6W
BAMM 15.7N 101.7W 16.8N 107.8W 16.6N 115.7W 15.6N 122.5W
LBAR 17.9N 102.2W 22.1N 105.4W 24.9N 108.1W 26.7N 110.7W
SHIP 66KTS 68KTS 55KTS 44KTS
DSHP 66KTS 68KTS 55KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 95.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 95.0W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 94.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


At this 00:00 UTC run ship has it up to hurricane strengh.

[gatorcane]

The EPAC usually ends up with more storms that than the Altantic...waters are warmer with less shear...Atlantic has shear all over the place...nothing will develop with that shear.

[senorpepr]

Invest (92E / N/A) (25/0000Z)
Position: 13°N 95.8°W (370 miles SE from Acapulco, Mexico)
Movement: W at 5 mph
Winds: 30 mph
Pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71''
Dvorak Est: Too Weak

[dhweather]

The EPAC is on the verge of going up 3-1.