SW Carribean, Visibles starting to look interesting.

[bbadon]

OK the convection, has started to look rather interesting. What is everyone else's opinion?

[HURAKAN]

IMPORANT QUESTION:

Will it persist, or poof and tomorrow do the same?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'll see what happen in the next 12 - 24 hr, before I get excited.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[HURAKAN]

I'll see what happen in the next 12 - 24 hr, before I get excited.


Hybridstorm_November2001

That's the point I tried to get in my post above, if the "blob" persists over the next 24 hours, then lets all get excited, but not before.

[Stormcenter]

POOF!!!!!!!

[Steve]

Don't even worry about the blobs. They'll die off and reform as they always do. If you have the link to Derek Ortt's people at UM with the long term IR loop superimposed over the water wapor loop, you get a better idea of how something's moving overall. I'll post a link at the end of the post so anyone who doesn't have it can view it at any time. Often with developing systems, we all get caught up with the MLC's especially when there is strong southwesterly shear. This is especially true when watching them on infrared. Those always die off when the LLC is out front or on the western periphery of the sytem only to reform again in the next pulse up. Last night the blobs died out only to reform a bit further west as the wave moved along. I suspect today won't be much different. In fact, I think Saturday is the day we have to start looking for any persistence. Until then, it's all just a guessing game anyway.

Steve

Here's the link:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Note: It looks like they took about 48 hours off the loop so you can't see it as good as you used to be able to.

[dhweather]

I can't even get to the site right now, I smell a network problem on
my end.

[HURAKAN]

PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... pres&uom=E

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... ptnd&uom=E

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... pres&uom=E

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... ptnd&uom=E

[dhweather]

It could be diurnal -

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Stole the words right out of my mouth, dh...

I was about to say.....I'm just going to venture a guess and say diurnal convection......just a guess though.

[skysummit]

Wow....it has a definate twist! Is it low level though?

[Steve]

Might be at the low levels, but it appears to be a broadly turning area of lower pressure.

>>It could be diurnal -

Well considering the pressure fall graphs all hit lowest in about 24 hour increments, that's probably right. But the main area (off Nicaragua/Honduras) is the wave axis moving WNW slowly. That's the focal point for future development and the cluster that has to be watched (over time of course; ain't nothing happening today).

Steve

[Anonymous]

As I said yesterday, I think this could be a threat down the road to the NW Caribbean and the Gulf Coast.

[Nimbus]

Little off topic for this thread but what is with all the shower activity over Florida extending east out over the Atlantic? The Canadian 12 panel forecasts a 1010 low developing off the east coast of Florida. Was this the remains of an occluded front that is working its way down to the surface or what?

[dhweather]

As I said yesterday, I think this could be a threat down the road to the NW Caribbean and the Gulf Coast.

I didn't forget about you and the Bahamas.

[Anonymous]

???

[TS Zack]

The system definitely has a circulation but is it at the surface is anyones guess. Even if we only have a MLC it is a start. It is still very close to land so development will be slow to occur.

Let's continue to just monitor the system closely.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It seems to be staying around or moving very slowly. Also that upper low over Florida is moving to the East ever so slowly. While pushing a trough/Subtropical jet finger into this system from the west. Which might be one of the reasons why it is blowing up at this moment. The air is pretty much forced to move upwards. With this said it is not impossible for tropical cyclone development with this. Once that upper low moves out and the trough/jet streak weakens it will leave favable enviroment behind.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[dhweather]

???

Several weeks ago, you had a gut feeling something would develop in the
Bahamas on the 19th or so of June.