Miami AFD Monster Low

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jlauderdal
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Miami AFD Monster Low

#1 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Jun 23, 2005 2:14 pm

Lol...even these guys rip the GFS.


GFS IS UP TO ITS
OLD TRICKS DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER E CUBA FRI NIGHT AND THEN
STRENGTHENS THIS INTO MONSTER LOW STAYING JUST E OF THE FLA
PENINSULA MOVING IT TO OFFSHORE MLB BY 12Z SAT AS 1008MB LOW. THIS
SEEMS WAY OVERDONE GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER FEATURE SO WILL GO
CLOSER TO NAM SOLUTION.
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#2 Postby dhweather » Thu Jun 23, 2005 2:51 pm

The GFS seems to have a case of chronic convective feedback.
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Miami AFD-18z NAM

#3 Postby Vortex » Thu Jun 23, 2005 3:25 pm

Well if there betting on the NAM solution then they might want to take a look at the 18z run...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif
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#4 Postby Steve H. » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:40 pm

Considering the NHC 5:30 TWO, the Miami AFD is now only amusing :roll: NAM coming into agreement with GFS 8-)
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Rainband

#5 Postby Rainband » Thu Jun 23, 2005 5:03 pm

I would hardly a 1012 MB low a monster :lol:
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#6 Postby jrod » Thu Jun 23, 2005 5:05 pm

Ive seen at least 3 models showing a low forming somewhere near the east coast of Florida this weekend. Regardless if one forms it looks like there will be a lot of east winds from now till late saturday that will blow in some surf and may even be great on Sunday if the winds switch offshore.
http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/flatla48hr.shtml
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#7 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 23, 2005 5:54 pm

Rainband wrote:I would hardly a 1012 MB low a monster :lol:


Yeah ... I've been watching all the GFS runs, and it's never made a "monster low". That's a bit hyperbolic. :-)
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#8 Postby Steve H. » Thu Jun 23, 2005 6:07 pm

No that's not a monster low, and I suspect a bit of sarcasm from Miami's AFD. But the surf should be quite good regardless 8-)
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#9 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 23, 2005 6:26 pm

Man this sucks...S FL is already way above normal in rainfall...I'm not sure how much more rainfall we can handle....I haven't seen the sun much in over a month here!
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#10 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Jun 23, 2005 6:32 pm

boca_chris wrote:Man this sucks...S FL is already way above normal in rainfall...I'm not sure how much more rainfall we can handle....I haven't seen the sun much in over a month here!


yeah and now we have this low down in the keys and wer caught in a convergence situation tonight with big storms popping again.
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#11 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 23, 2005 6:37 pm

yeah I thought this would be the first day in coastal Palm Beach/Broward/Dade without significant rain...even WeatherBug was saying storms would stay away from the coast. But apparently they poppe up really quick over the past hour or two...

Then this low is going to ruin this weekend.....!!!
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#12 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Jun 23, 2005 6:49 pm

boca_chris wrote:yeah I thought this would be the first day in coastal Palm Beach/Broward/Dade without significant rain...even WeatherBug was saying storms would stay away from the coast. But apparently they poppe up really quick over the past hour or two...

Then this low is going to ruin this weekend.....!!!


well i am at the intracaoastel and commerical and i have a wind that just came up about 15-20 ou of the NE and clouds overhead moving to the NE so I am definetely in a swueeze play and radar confirms it. should start pouring any minute
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#13 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 24, 2005 8:19 am

I don't this this monster low is going to happen this weekend. I'm not sure what the models are thinking.
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#14 Postby sponger » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:32 am

Either way the surf is up!!!! Come on offshores!!!
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