Interesting 5:30 PM TWO=Possible developments?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:17 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND A TROPICAL WAVE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA. WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...THEY COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. SHOULD THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN OVER WATER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Interesting the wording for both areas.

#2 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:23 pm

1..........2..........3

HERE WE GO!

#3 Postby **TampaFl** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:24 pm

Agree Cycloneye. Satillite loop shows "possible circulation off Honduras/Nigaraga. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Robert 8-)

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:25 pm

No big surprise to me, as I mentioned yesterday:::

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #5 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:25 pm

The area near 18 north/82 west has a trough/Ull just to the north with 40 mph shear. Could be interesting if that moves a little to the north while it stays off land.

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:28 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:No big surprise to me, as I mentioned yesterday:::

Yes you did at video and I give you credit

.

frederic79 · #7 Postby **frederic79** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:36 pm

Kudos to NHC. There was a time they wouldn't have even mentioned "possible development" but now they are shootin' straight. I could learn to like this...

#8 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:41 pm

Now we're talking.

Let the 24/7 satellite watch begin.

DoctorHurricane2003 · #9 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:42 pm

I agree....it is very interesting wording. Key things to watch:

-Persistence of the storms near Honduras
-Possible merger of Tropical Wave and Low Pressure near Honduras
-Timing of Relaxation of Shear

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #10 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:43 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The models still show the top end of this tropical wave forming into a cyclone. In which I can't not stop watching that intill those models stop showing development. I will have more on that later..

18 north/82 west system
It seems to be staying around or moving very slowly. Also that upper low over Florida is moving to the East ever so slowly. While pushing a trough/Subtropical jet finger into this system from the west. Which might be one of the reasons why it is blowing up at this moment. The air is pretty much forced to move upwards. With this said it is not impossible for tropical cyclone development with this. Once that upper low moves out and the trough/jet streak weakens it will leave favable enviroment behind.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#11 Postby **Trader Ron** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:45 pm

HURAKAN wrote:1..........2..........3

HERE WE GO!

Three named storms in June? Well, it has happened FIVE times in the last Fifty years. It will happen again. However, I will take that bet EVERY year.

Website · #12 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:46 pm

Vacation cancel. :lol:

#13 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:48 pm

Trader Ron wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:1..........2..........3

HERE WE GO!

Three named storms in June? Well, it has happened FIVE times in the last Fifty years. It will happen again. However, I will take that bet EVERY year.

I'm not counting the storms, I'm just preparing for the race!

Scorpion · #14 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:49 pm

Here we go

#15 Postby **Trader Ron** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:54 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Trader Ron wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:1..........2..........3

HERE WE GO!

Three named storms in June? Well, it has happened FIVE times in the last Fifty years. It will happen again. However, I will take that bet EVERY year.

I'm not counting the storms, I'm just preparing for the race!

Sorry..You should never assume. :lol:

#16 Postby **Cookiely** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 5:01 pm

Interesting Tampa Discussion.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 231715
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
115 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE FL
STRAITS TO SLOWLY LIFT N/NW-WARD THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE STATE
AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE US. AT THE SFC...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS A TROPICAL WAVE LIFTS NW THROUGH CUBA.
THESE FEATURES MERGE LATE FRIDAY AND LIFT NNW OVER THE STATE FOR
SATURDAY. THIS MEANS THE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED CLEARING AND RETURN TO
A NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL BE FURTHER DELAYED AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND ADDED UPPER ENERGY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. WILL THEREFORE BUMP UP POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
REDUCE THE THUNDER MENTION. WILL ALSO LOWER MAX TEMPS AS WILL HAVE
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT NGT-THU)...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FL PENINSULA
WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FROM THE PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS, LEANING
TOWARDS NAM. BY SUN AFTERNOON LOOK FOR THE TROF TO MOVE NNW INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS OVER THE AREA AS FINAL SOLUTION
STILL IN DOUBT.

BY TUES UPPER RIDGING REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION WHILE SFC
BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES TO OUR NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A E/SE
FLOW ACROSS THE STATE WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
PATTERN OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF
TO ISOLATED IN THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD AROUND CLIMATE.

&&

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #17 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 5:03 pm

Wow wow wow

Take a look at 15.5 north/83.5 west that is a nice MLC!!!

But look at the clouds blowing off to the north of the system not very favable.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Swimdude · #18 Postby **Swimdude** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 5:17 pm

YIPPEE!!!!

I'm going against the possibility of TWO named storms within the month; seeing as how unusual that would be. However, one isn't out of the question.

***NOTE: The above images will continue to update themselves...***

#19 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 5:17 pm

If it can only stay offshore for a while!

#20 Postby **Steve** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 5:17 pm

>>In which I can't not stop watching that intill those models stop showing development.

Matt,

Hit me with a translation if you don't mind.

Steve

Interesting 5:30 PM TWO=Possible developments?

Interesting 5:30 PM TWO=Possible developments?

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