GFDL has systemheading for S TEXAS

#1 Postby **tailgater** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:01 pm

Take it for what it's worth, I don't see any other models bringing a low from BOC north. Happy Hunting.
http://met.psu.edu/~arnottj/CHARM/tcgen ... /slp21.png

#2 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:13 pm

tailgater wrote:Take it for what it's worth, I don't see any other models bringing a low from BOC north. Happy Hunting.
http://met.psu.edu/~arnottj/CHARM/tcgen ... /slp21.png

FWIW, today's 12Z run of the Euro depicted a low forming next Sunday in the extreme W Caribbean, moving over the Yucatan NNW into the Gulf and strengthening at +168 hr as it moves toward the upper TX coast.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5062212!!/

#3 Postby **tailgater** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:20 pm

A little more plausible then.
Thanks BYU

#4 Postby **dhweather** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:50 pm

Well, we shall see if ECMWF is onto somthing by Monday.

#5 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:17 pm

Indeed, we shall see. It is too far out to bank on this projected system yet.

Most models have a real hard time accurately projecting tropical cyclone formation. For example over the years (about the last decade) I have seen them, more times than not blow up nonexistent systems into major hurricanes, while at the same time ignoring may verified embryonic systems that do into develop into tropical cyclones almost right before our eyes (meaning that they do so rapidly).

Hybridstorm_November2001

#6 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 6:40 am

A FWIW update on the ol' Euro...the 0z Thursday run now downplays the Caribbean low it developed in the GoM in the 12z Wed run, depicting it benignly drifting off over the Yucatan/southern BoC, while punching up a system in the EPAC around the Gulf of Tehuantepec and moving it NWward off the Mexican coast by +168.

Amanzi · #7 Postby **Amanzi** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 6:53 am

Well I hope this does come to fruition (not as a hurricane!) but as some super soaking rains for you folks in Texas, I know you guys need it there 8-)

Scott_inVA · #8 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:26 am

0Z EC has backed off. 6Z GFS still limps a piece of the wave into SAV/HHI area. Hurricane models (at least as of 8:30AM Thursday) last initialized Wed 18Z.

ULL over FL also suggests this is not a favorable environment.

Scott

#9 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:36 am

Amanzi wrote:Well I hope this does come to fruition (not as a hurricane!) but as some super soaking rains for you folks in Texas, I know you guys need it there

Yes we do need it!!

Houston for example is on pace to have the driest month of June on record. Galveston is looking at one of the 10 driest Junes on record. Southeast Texas especially is near mild to moderate drought status.

None of the Texas NWS offices this morning are optimistic about rain chances and, in fact, say the high pressure ridge will strengthen next week over our state. Ugh ...

#10 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:53 am

There's no Low, ULL, whatever. What are you guys talking about? Why don't you read the NHC tropical weather outlook. Also read the post about "Let's play nice" before posting anything like this. No tropical system is heading towards Texas:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230900
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

Scott_inVA · #11 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 8:06 am

boca_chris wrote:There's no Low, ULL, whatever. What are you guys talking about? Why don't you read the NHC tropical weather outlook. Also read the post about "Let's play nice" before posting anything like this. No tropical system is heading towards Texas:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230900
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

Thanks, Chris. I get TWOs emailed to me too.

Might suggest you take a look:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048m.gif

GFS and NAM both feature an Upper Low INVOF Florida/Eastern GOM.

Concerning the balance of your post, I haven't a clue what you are talking about.

Scott

#12 Postby **loon** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 8:06 am

[quote="boca_chris"]There's no Low, ULL, whatever. What are you guys talking about? Why don't you read the NHC tropical weather outlook. Also read the post about "Let's play nice" before posting anything like this. No tropical system is heading towards Texas:

I don't see anything wrong with their post. Maybe you read "Lets play nice" wrong. The subject was GFDL has system going to S Texas, which at the time it did. Then that was discussed....I didn't even see anyone mention a LLC..just some Houstonians talking about how dry it is here.

#13 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 8:24 am

Well then posts like this should be deleted when there is no system anymore. It's outdated.

#14 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:00 am

boca_chris wrote:Well then posts like this should be deleted when there is no system anymore. It's outdated.

Quite the contrary, often times these sorts of threads make for very interesting reading in hindsight, as the models sniff out future trends that sometimes sometimes bust, and sometimes come to big time fruition.

Outdated? Hardly. Sure, we all know there's no system there...yet. :wink:

#15 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:01 am

okay let's just wait and see then :lol:

#16 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:22 am

Blob off NIC./ HOND. border is looking pretty healthy this morning. If the ULL over west "Quba" squirts out east it's got a chance or am I just -removed-.
The gulf doesn't look too inviting right now with all the dry air in place, but we kinda have climatology in our favor so I'm gonna watch it closely right after work ( gotta go pay some bills).

Swimdude · #17 Postby **Swimdude** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:17 am

Houston sure could use the rain. The last June that we were heading for record-dryness, in 2001, tropical storm Allison came through and cancelled out that prediction. :lol:

#18 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:19 am

Swimdude wrote:Houston sure could use the rain. The last June that we were heading for record-dryness, in 2001, tropical storm Allison came through and cancelled out that prediction.

You didn't say that "A" word did you??? :eek:

Hush your mouth son!!!! :lol:

#19 Postby **jeff** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:22 am

Careful what you wish for.

#20 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:33 am

Hey, we got rain from Allison too.

I vividly remember the "core" of Allison traveling East on I-10, blowing
through overnight. Pretty impressive for a "non-tropical" system.

GFDL has systemheading for S TEXAS

GFDL has systemheading for S TEXAS

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