Central Caribbean Wave Better Organized

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Central Caribbean Wave Better Organized

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2005 1:48 pm

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W S OF 20N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THE WAVE HAS A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH A COMPACT CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER AND S OF
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 68W-73W. HEAVY RAINS...WITH RATES UP TO 1/2" (13
MM) PER HOUR...HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SPREAD OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING
OVER HAITI LATER TODAY...AND THEN OVER E CUBA AND THE SRN
BAHAMAS ON THU AS THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS N BEHIND THE
WAVE.

Definitly it looks better than this morning with possibly a MLC embedded.But it has a hostile enviroment ahead as a trough is located in the western Caribbean.The only way this wave can develop is that the trough moves out of the way.

http://atmos.uprm.edu:8080/imageloop.jsp?set=3

Visible loop of Caribbean.

Image

Water Vapor pic that shows trough to it's west.Definitly I am not saying with this thread posted that this wave will develop but only I made this thread to point out the better appearence of the wave this afternoon but it's future is very uncertain.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#2 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 22, 2005 1:55 pm

The visible image remains me of pre-Claudette in 2003, it sure looks much better.
0 likes   
Top
Johnny
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1428
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:35 pm
Location: No Snow For You, Texas

#3 Postby Johnny » Wed Jun 22, 2005 1:56 pm

Is the trough going to hang up or move out of the way?
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneJoe22
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 456
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:45 am
Location: Temple, Texas

#4 Postby HurricaneJoe22 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:14 pm

what about the SW Caribbean....there seems to be a lot of persistant heavy convection there for at least a day now.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:29 pm

Wow I didn't expect an invest but there it is.I guess I have a good eye. :)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Trader Ron
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 928
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 7:25 pm
Location: Naples,Fl
Contact:
Contact Trader Ron

#6 Postby Trader Ron » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:34 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8shrZ.html

Seems like Mr Shear will raise his ugly head.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#7 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:36 pm

It seems like there is alot of that this year :roll:
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#8 Postby Brent » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:41 pm

Interesting.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#9 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:44 pm

The Cmc take it just off the Coast over the next 144 hours.
Gfs takes it a little left of that.
While the Nogaps take it into the Gulf.

Interesting that it is starting to get some model support. Come Bret don't let the Eastern Pacific own you. Also it has a nice banding with outflow. Nice system and also under 10 knot shear. With 20 knots to the southeast. A weak upper low to the southwest enhancing some of the northwestern quad outflow.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Trader Ron
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 928
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 7:25 pm
Location: Naples,Fl
Contact:
Contact Trader Ron

#10 Postby Trader Ron » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:53 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The Cmc take it just off the Coast over the next 144 hours.
Gfs takes it a little left of that.
While the Nogaps take it into the Gulf.

Interesting that it is starting to get some model support. Come Bret don't let the Eastern Pacific own you.


It might verify after SIX day's, but i wouldn't put too much money on it. :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 41
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

#11 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:57 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It seems like there is alot of that this year :roll:


Dude, it's June. WAY too early to tell if this will last throughout the whole season.

-Andrew92
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

#12 Postby Swimdude » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:17 pm

Andrew92 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It seems like there is alot of that this year :roll:


Dude, it's June. WAY too early to tell if this will last throughout the whole season.

-Andrew92



True that. It's always worse in June, isn't it? Wouldn't that be why the season doesn't get into full swing until later in the year? I mean, water temps are plenty warm.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 41
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

#13 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:18 pm

Swimdude wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It seems like there is alot of that this year :roll:


Dude, it's June. WAY too early to tell if this will last throughout the whole season.

-Andrew92



True that. It's always worse in June, isn't it? Wouldn't that be why the season doesn't get into full swing until later in the year? I mean, water temps are plenty warm.


Exactly!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#14 Postby dhweather » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:42 pm

Won't be long at all until we get the "this season is a dud" posts :D
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#15 Postby Brent » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:44 pm

dhweather wrote:Won't be long at all until we get the "this season is a dud" posts :D


What in the world was last June and July like?(I was here but have forgotten) Nothing until July 31st... :lol:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
bucman1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 394
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:59 am

#16 Postby bucman1 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:44 pm

people just need to chill ,it is June and the shear should ease as we go into July.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 41
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

#17 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:46 pm

dhweather wrote:Won't be long at all until we get the "this season is a dud" posts :D


Forget the "won't be long at all" comments, we're already getting them! :roll:

-Andrew92
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 41
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

#18 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:46 pm

Brent wrote:
dhweather wrote:Won't be long at all until we get the "this season is a dud" posts :D


What in the world was last June and July like?(I was here but have forgotten) Nothing until July 31st... :lol:


And how many times will we have to repeat that?
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 598 guests