My thinking on 94L and South Caribbean Disturbance

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HURAKAN
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My thinking on 94L and South Caribbean Disturbance

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 22, 2005 3:56 pm

Image

Based on the most recent computer models and my personal thinking, this is the portrayed scenario that I believe may take place over the next following days. The Disturbance north of Panama should continue westward toward the EPAC and develop further into probably tropical storm or hurricane Calvin. 94L should continue moving WNW toward the Bahamas where it may develop into Bret as it moves northward toward the Carolinas or out to sea.

Lets keep a watchful eye on the following days to see how everything unfolds.

Disclaimer=The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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#2 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:08 pm

Hmmmmm possible but not likely.
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#3 Postby hurricanedude » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:51 pm

NOT!!!!! wishful thinking but dont bet your house on it
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Rainband

#4 Postby Rainband » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:29 pm

hurricanedude wrote:NOT!!!!! wishful thinking but dont bet your house on it
chill. Opinions are always welcome.
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Scorpion

#5 Postby Scorpion » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:34 pm

Stupid shear :grr: . Its getting near July it better start letting up soon.
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#6 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:36 pm

Scorpion wrote:Stupid shear :grr: . Its getting near July it better start letting up soon.


It's June and we've already had one storm already. Last year, we didn't get our first storm named until August 1, and we all know what happened last year.

I posted it earlier, I'll post it again. It's WAY too early to tell if the shear is going to stick around for the whole season.

-Andrew92
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#7 Postby Swimdude » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:45 pm

It would sure be more interesting if all clusters of storms actually formed, eh? :D
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Opal storm

#8 Postby Opal storm » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:50 pm

Swimdude wrote:It would sure be more interesting if all clusters of storms actually formed, eh? :D

Florida would be wiped off the face of this earth.
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cyclonaut

#9 Postby cyclonaut » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:04 pm

Tell you what if any of these systems get even semi-organized & manage to cause a heavy rain for South Fla in the day ahead there could be some serious flooding problems because the ground is very saturated indeed.
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#10 Postby jrod » Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:25 pm

Many of the wave models are showing that sytem near PR and the Island of Hispaniola making an impact on Florida. Great news for us surfers in Florida if they hold true. Maybe not so grat for the Carolina's because they will be getting worst of it, a little wind and tons of rain.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/wna_ecg.anim.gif
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#11 Postby hurricanedude » Wed Jun 22, 2005 9:00 pm

why is it every time i say something, i always get told to chill? is it dude aint welcome here anymore?
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cyclonaut

#12 Postby cyclonaut » Wed Jun 22, 2005 9:46 pm

hurricanedude wrote:why is it every time i say something, i always get told to chill? is it dude aint welcome here anymore?

LOL

You have to be so nice here that its mind numbing.
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#13 Postby george_r_1961 » Thu Jun 23, 2005 3:59 am

Sandy im moving into a mobile home I just purchased. I hope you are wrong because anything that heads for the Carolinas could well affect me here in southeast Virginia. Im not really alarmed but you can bet im watching this closely :eek:
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#14 Postby mobilebay » Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:05 am

cyclonaut wrote:
hurricanedude wrote:why is it every time i say something, i always get told to chill? is it dude aint welcome here anymore?

LOL

You have to be so nice here that its mind numbing.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: I have thought the same thing myself. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Steve
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#15 Postby Steve » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:47 am

>>LOL You have to be so nice here that its mind numbing.

No you don't. I referenced your comments recently in the thread about Joe B and it wasn't a nice post at all. You have to stay within the terms of service when you pick your battles and not jump people for no reason at all. If you take the time to dispute something, a little evidence usually helps your cause.

Steve
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cyclonaut

#16 Postby cyclonaut » Thu Jun 23, 2005 10:18 am

What was'nt so nice Steve??

Because you are a Joe B fanatic & I am just a casual observer who thinks he is a touch overated makes me not nice.???

Thats called having a difference of opinion dude..I think your old enough to know that opinions do vary..It seems like whenever there is a thread started about Joe B & people start to bash him (which I did not do) it offends some who worship the ground he walks on.

1st of all anyone who wants to criticize his or any forecast can do so..This thing about just because one doesn't put out a forecast then we are not allowed to criticize it is pure BS..He's the meteorologist not me..His job is to forecast not mine..So movie critics can't critque movies because they don't make them??

I think not!

Honestly with each passing day I dislike his arrogant self more & more..Him & his Crapuweather staff!..2 years ago I even use to subscribe,now I can barely stand the site of him.

BTW..Is this the comment in question?

Joe B. will be trying to spin something up somewhere everyday from now til Thanksgiving.


If you call that not being nice I don't know what to tell ya. :roll:

I've said & seen worse than that my friend.
Last edited by cyclonaut on Thu Jun 23, 2005 10:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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cyclonaut

#17 Postby cyclonaut » Thu Jun 23, 2005 10:27 am

[quote="Steve
a little evidence usually helps your cause.
Steve[/quote]

Also what eveidence do you require from me??

Other then the fact that ever since I have watched Joe B., I have seen him try to develop something every week in the Hurricane Season from beginning to end..Yes sometimes he hits & sometimes he does'nt but with a stragedy like that you are bound to hit a few.

Thats my evidence, my memory.
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Steve
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#18 Postby Steve » Thu Jun 23, 2005 10:35 am

Should you go back to the thread, you weren't the thrust of what I was saying, you were just a point of reference. I think that was abundantly clear even if I got your motives wrong.

FWIW, I think the comment about him spinning something up from now through Thanksgiving is pretty damn funny and quite appropriate. But before having a fit, you should get your facts straight. There are some people who might, when they have the facts, defend Bastardi because he isn't here to defend himself. When others twist something he says to suit their agenda (and that doesn't just go for Joe, it goes for anyone), expect those with the ammo to set the record straight. It's got nothing to do with worshiping the ground anyone walks on. If I think Joe's off, I say so. I've don't it 100 times. You may have noticed that in my most recent post before this one ;). But that's different from trying to make myself look good by tearing someone else down (which is exactly what I accused the so-called offending party of). But if someone makes it a point to trash him for a mistake or error when they offer no substance of their own, then I should have a right to point that out too provided I don't go off on a name calling and hissy fit rant breaking the rules. The only ammunition that offending party has ever been able to offer was that I was a Bastardi worshiper. That's been debunked enough. If I think his take is interesting, I'll post it. If I think it would make a nice piece of toilet paper, I wouldn't bother or I would just dispute it. Like you, I used to subscribe to his service too. But also like you, I am sick of AccuWeather and will not give them a dime this season or any season they are working behind the scenes to weaken my access or rights as a citizen. So don't assume because I think he's the best pattern-reconigtion guy in the business (or at least that I have access to), that means I worship him. He knows more than I do like about 500 people on Storm2k. They all get their due.

No hard feelings with you btw.

Steve
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cyclonaut

#19 Postby cyclonaut » Thu Jun 23, 2005 10:48 am

Steve I have no hard feelings for you either man! :)

I have been familiar with you for sometime now & you are a very knowledgeable & good person..I use to go under a different handle so I've been around these forums for a while..Yes, Joe B is good @ what he does & you are right,he is one of the best pattern recognition guy's out there..He just rubs me the wrong as of late is all.& he does tend to hype otherwise beniign systems sometimes but believe me I wish I did what he does.

I am open to all opinions out here his & yours included..When there is a hurricane out there heading toward the U.S I will watch him along with any other source of info I can get my hands on as well as draw my own conclusions. :)
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#20 Postby GalvestonDuck » Thu Jun 23, 2005 10:56 am

Well resolved, gentlemen. :)
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