Central Caribbean Wave Better Organized

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cycloneye
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Central Caribbean Wave Better Organized

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2005 1:48 pm

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W S OF 20N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THE WAVE HAS A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH A COMPACT CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER AND S OF
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 68W-73W. HEAVY RAINS...WITH RATES UP TO 1/2" (13
MM) PER HOUR...HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SPREAD OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING
OVER HAITI LATER TODAY...AND THEN OVER E CUBA AND THE SRN
BAHAMAS ON THU AS THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS N BEHIND THE
WAVE.

Definitly it looks better than this morning with possibly a MLC embedded.But it has a hostile enviroment ahead as a trough is located in the western Caribbean.The only way this wave can develop is that the trough moves out of the way.

http://atmos.uprm.edu:8080/imageloop.jsp?set=3

Visible loop of Caribbean.

Image

Water Vapor pic that shows trough to it's west.Definitly I am not saying with this thread posted that this wave will develop but only I made this thread to point out the better appearence of the wave this afternoon but it's future is very uncertain.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 22, 2005 1:55 pm

The visible image remains me of pre-Claudette in 2003, it sure looks much better.
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#3 Postby Johnny » Wed Jun 22, 2005 1:56 pm

Is the trough going to hang up or move out of the way?
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#4 Postby HurricaneJoe22 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:14 pm

what about the SW Caribbean....there seems to be a lot of persistant heavy convection there for at least a day now.
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:29 pm

Wow I didn't expect an invest but there it is.I guess I have a good eye. :)
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#6 Postby Trader Ron » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:34 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8shrZ.html

Seems like Mr Shear will raise his ugly head.
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#7 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:36 pm

It seems like there is alot of that this year :roll:
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#8 Postby Brent » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:41 pm

Interesting.
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#9 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:44 pm

The Cmc take it just off the Coast over the next 144 hours.
Gfs takes it a little left of that.
While the Nogaps take it into the Gulf.

Interesting that it is starting to get some model support. Come Bret don't let the Eastern Pacific own you. Also it has a nice banding with outflow. Nice system and also under 10 knot shear. With 20 knots to the southeast. A weak upper low to the southwest enhancing some of the northwestern quad outflow.
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#10 Postby Trader Ron » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:53 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The Cmc take it just off the Coast over the next 144 hours.
Gfs takes it a little left of that.
While the Nogaps take it into the Gulf.

Interesting that it is starting to get some model support. Come Bret don't let the Eastern Pacific own you.


It might verify after SIX day's, but i wouldn't put too much money on it. :D
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#11 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:57 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It seems like there is alot of that this year :roll:


Dude, it's June. WAY too early to tell if this will last throughout the whole season.

-Andrew92
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#12 Postby Swimdude » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:17 pm

Andrew92 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It seems like there is alot of that this year :roll:


Dude, it's June. WAY too early to tell if this will last throughout the whole season.

-Andrew92



True that. It's always worse in June, isn't it? Wouldn't that be why the season doesn't get into full swing until later in the year? I mean, water temps are plenty warm.
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#13 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:18 pm

Swimdude wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It seems like there is alot of that this year :roll:


Dude, it's June. WAY too early to tell if this will last throughout the whole season.

-Andrew92



True that. It's always worse in June, isn't it? Wouldn't that be why the season doesn't get into full swing until later in the year? I mean, water temps are plenty warm.


Exactly!
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#14 Postby dhweather » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:42 pm

Won't be long at all until we get the "this season is a dud" posts :D
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#15 Postby Brent » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:44 pm

dhweather wrote:Won't be long at all until we get the "this season is a dud" posts :D


What in the world was last June and July like?(I was here but have forgotten) Nothing until July 31st... :lol:
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#16 Postby bucman1 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:44 pm

people just need to chill ,it is June and the shear should ease as we go into July.
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#17 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:46 pm

dhweather wrote:Won't be long at all until we get the "this season is a dud" posts :D


Forget the "won't be long at all" comments, we're already getting them! :roll:

-Andrew92
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#18 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:46 pm

Brent wrote:
dhweather wrote:Won't be long at all until we get the "this season is a dud" posts :D


What in the world was last June and July like?(I was here but have forgotten) Nothing until July 31st... :lol:


And how many times will we have to repeat that?
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