IS NYC 2nd TO N.O. IN VUNERALBILTIY?

[Trader Ron]

A couple of thoughts.

I lived on Long Island Sound from 1946-1962, and on Long Island from 1963-2000. I witnessed about Ten Tropical Storms/ Hurricanes during that time.

If i remember correctly, Carol (1954) created very high tides. Long Island Sound and the East River met where i lived at the time.

Gloria hit at Dead Low tide. Had Gloria hit at high tide, i believe Fire Island would have been awash. Gloria weakened as it approached Long Island. If Gloria hit a month before, she would have been stronger due to the warmer water.

Donna was a fierce Hurricane because it was so large.

The Ash Wednesday Nor'easter of 1962 created more damage than most of the tropical storms and hurricanes that hit the Northeast.

Hurricane Belle ( June-1976) weakened due to the cool Atlantic. Belle also hit at Low Tide.

Of course, the worst case scenerio is for a Hurricane to hit Northern New Jersey.

[Brent]

Great posts all.

[Derek Ortt]

There iis a big difference between the Unisys site and the official records and this time, trust Unisys.

Prior to Dr Bob Sheets becoming the director of NHC, it was <b>PRESSURE</b> not wind speed that determined the category. Therefore, while Gloria officially made landfall with 75KT winds, it still received a cat 3 rating, while Bonnie with 75KT winds received a cat 1 rating

That 630 feet elevation is about where hurricane winds are 1-2 categories higher than the standard 10m winds. It may be 10m above the surface, but it is not at sea level so some adjustment has to be made for that

[donsutherland1]

Derek,

You raise a good point about the earlier methodology of classifying hurricanes. I'm confident that when the Re-analysis is completed, the assessments will be as accurate as possible given the exhaustive review of data.

Anyway, I'll be sure to note Dr. Landsea's reply. I could well have misunderstood what he said previously concerning Carol's strength.

[Stephanie]

Being that I grew up on Long Island from 1962 - 1977, I'm enjoying this hurricane history lesson. I remember hearing the stories of the Long Island Express, etc. and it was one of the reasons why I became interested in them and weather in general.

Unfortunately, those deadly storms were a long time ago in a vastly different population landscape, just the thought of one of those repeating makes my hair stand on end!

[CentralFlGal]

Something is calling our attention to the Northeast. A broken link in a story I posted in another thread led me to learn more about the "Long Island Express" in '38. (here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=909925&highlight=#909925 )

Had I viewed this thread first, I would've posted the info here. I never heard of this storm before, and the potential of it occurring again would be devastating.

I haven't yet found evac plans for NYC, but in the thread linked to above has information from Nassau County.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Any big storm approaching in the northeast I would suspect would cause complete pandemonium! there would be mass evacuations and travelers trying to get to their nearest pubs to stage hurricane parties! chaos... people in panic and loads of drunks.

[donsutherland1]

Per Dr. Landsea with regard to Hurricane Carol (1954):

1. The Re-Analysis project has not taken a close look at it yet.
2. It is possible it could be downgraded.
3. It is possible that it could be retained at Cat. 3 and "bump the winds up accordingly."

This commentary suggests that there may be data that supports either option. It is even possible its winds were stronger at landfall than currently estimated. Perry has provided some information concerning Carol toward the Category 3 idea.

[CentralFlGal]

700 yr Sedimentary Record of Intense Hurricane Landfalls in Southern New England

Five intense (category 3 or greater) hurricanes occurring in 1635, 1638, 1815, 1869, and 1938 have made landfall on the New England coast since European settlement. Historical records indicate that four of these hurricanes (1635, 1638, 1815, and 1938) and hurricane Carol, a strong category 2 storm in 1954, produced significant storm surges (.3 m) in southern Rhode Island. Storm surges of this magnitude can overtop barrier islands, removing sediments from the beach and nearshore environment and depositing overwash fans across back-barrier marshes, lakes, and lagoons. In a regime of rising sea level, accumulation of marsh, lake, or lagoon sediments on top of overwash, deposits will preserve a record of overwash deposition.

We examined the record of overwash deposition at Succotash salt marsh in East Matunuck, Rhode Island, and tested the correlation with historical records of intense storms. Aerial photographs taken after hurricanes in 1954 and 1938 show overwash fans deposited at the site. Analysis of 14 sediment cores from the back-barrier marsh confirmed the presence of these fans and revealed that four additional large-scale overwash fans were deposited within the marsh sediments.

The four overwash fans deposited since the early seventeenth century at Succotash Marsh matches the historical record of significant hurricane-induced storm surge. These fans were most likely deposited by hurricanes in 1954, 1938, 1815, and either 1638 or 1635. Radiocarbon dating of two prehistoric overwash fans indicated that these were deposited between A.D. 1295–1407 and 1404–1446 and probably represent intense hurricane strikes. In the past 700 yr, at least seven intense hurricanes struck the southern Rhode Island coast and produced a storm surge that overtopped the barrier at Succotash Marsh.

http://www.geo.brown.edu/georesearch/esh/QE/Publications/GSAB2001/JDonnelly/Succotash/Succotash.htm

[krysof]

NYC doesn't need an actual category 4. Hurricanes move up the coast so fast that winds equal a Category 5 hurricane. The only good news is that hurricanes moving rapidly up the coast quicly come and go. Because of the year's increased activity and very warm ssts's, a major hurricane will definetelly come again.

[krysof]

Also, I wonder if people would take a hurricane watch or warning seriously. People think they are invincible to such threats that many people will likely ignore any evacuations until it's too late.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Up north they are such a novelty as well. People would want to go to the coast to see the waves. Nobody would take them seriously except the few early snowbirds that may have experienced one in Florida if they arrived in late october or early november and got to feel one. They may take it seriously, but everyone else will party.

[Derek Ortt]

well, if this is any idea as to how some in NYC think... here is an exact quote from the mayor at the time, Ed Koch immediately after Gloria

"We scared the hell out of the hurricane"

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Even the Saxby Gale of 1869 (which hit the coasts of Maine and New Brunswick) is widely regarded as a cat 2 at landfall. If a cat. 2 can make it even further North than NYC/Long Island (roughly 5.5 degrees North to be more precise); I think that it is VERY likely that at least a cat. 3 can (and has) hit Southern New England.


Another factor to keep in mind when talking about storms that impact latitudes north of 40 Degrees; is the fact that the vast majority of these storms are undergoing extratropical transition at the time. With that stated most would technically fall into the category of being Subtropical, or having hybrid (both warm core and cold core) characteristics. As such they are harder to predict than hurricanes in more Southern latitudes, and their effect on Northern land areas can be extreme. The distribution of wind and rain becomes increasingly asymmetrical. For example the area of high winds expand to the right of the storm track, creating a larger area of gale force winds than may have existed when the storm was a classic hurricane in most cases.
In 1954 a large hybridstorm (former) Hurricane Edna drowned over 20 people in Eastern New England, and caused massive wind damage in Nova Scotia over 300 miles east of the storm center.
Hurricane Michael, which made landfall VERY far North and East indeed (in south-central New Foundland), was such an event that was able to maintain cat. 2 like status up until (and for a short time after) landfall.


http://www.meteo.physik.uni-muenchen.de ... tpaper.pdf


http://www.rms.com/Publications/26Meteo ... stract.pdf


http://www.novaweather.net/Abraham_et_al_2004.pdf


Hybridstorm_November2001

[Derek Ortt]

Michael didnt really maintain cat 2 intensity that far north, it ATTAINED it that far north. I remember hearing about that ship report at the time and my first 2 words were "holy ___t"

Interestingly, that was the last time in which the CHC issued a Hurricane Warning. They had felt that Michael would come in just below hurricane intensity, but both them and NHC (and I cannot let myself off the hook with this one either) had seen the storm weakening when it was really maintaining its intensity

[SouthernWx]

Per Dr. Landsea with regard to Hurricane Carol (1954):

1. The Re-Analysis project has not taken a close look at it yet.
2. It is possible it could be downgraded.
3. It is possible that it could be retained at Cat. 3 and "bump the winds up accordingly."

This commentary suggests that there may be data that supports either option. It is even possible its winds were stronger at landfall than currently estimated. Perry has provided some information concerning Carol toward the Category 3 idea.

I agree...

a) Here's some more data on hurricane Carol...at Montauk Point USCG station, the anemometer reportedly "pegged" at 120 mph for over a minute before falling to 0 as the anemometer was destroyed.

b) Carol's central pressure may have been even LOWER than the 960 mb quoted in many hurricane books and the NHC report. At Groton, Connecticut....a central pressure of 28.26"/ 957.1 mb was recorded, in the center of a "clear eye, sun shining brightly" (during eye passage) as reported in a Connecticut newspaper the next day. That doesn't sound like a weakening hurricane (i.e.- Bob in 1991).

c) the storm surge of 11-14' definitely qualifies Carol as a major landfalling hurricane....so does the 957 mb central pressure from Groton, so do the 120+ mph sustained wind reports at Montauk Point and Block Island.

Believe me, there are several landfalling hurricanes between 1915 and 1990 I personally estimate are currently being rated TOO HIGH by NHC on the Saffir Simpson scale (i.e.- hurricane Carmen of 1974 and Gloria in 1985 and others).....but 1954 hurricanes Carol and Edna are not two of them...I believe from extensive research both were bonafide cat-3 major hurricanes while impacting the NE U.S coast.

PW

[CA _Tracker]

The Weather Channel did a show a year or two back about the 5 Most Vulnerable Cities in The US, and New York City made the list.

I was surprised that Washington DC-Baltimore-Philadelphia didn't make the list.

Hurricane Isabel was supposed to chug right up the Chesapeake Bay. Eventhough it veered to the left and went over Charlottesville, VA, Annapolis still had a record storm surge of 7.5 feet.

Given the cone shape of the Chesapeake Bay, if a hurricane ever was to go up the Bay, the flooding would be terrible, possibly right up to Philadelphia.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I think that the reason DC isn't mentioned is because of the contour of the Coast in that area; which make it VERY hard for a hurricane to make landfall head on in the area (unlike the Carolinas and New England that jut out into the Atlantic for example). I could be wrong though


Hybridstorm_November

[Persepone]

Question about elevation of Blue Hills Observatory in Massachusetts:

Elevation is 635 feet.

The Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory was founded by Abbott Lawrence Rotch on February 1, 1885, as a weather station and research facility. Rotch located the observatory atop the Great Blue Hill in the Blue Hills Reservation, a 6,000-acre public park managed by the Metropolitan District Commission of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts in Milton, Massachusetts. Rotch chose the site because the elevation of 635 feet was the highest point within ten miles of the Atlantic Ocean, anywhere on the East Coast south of central Maine. This location afforded early weather scientists a unique opportunity for recording extremes of weather and experimenting with weather-recording instruments.

for pictures and more information, go to:

http://www.cr.nps.gov/history/online_bo ... stro4j.htm