Is CALVIN on the way?

[HURAKAN]

Beatriz is still churning the waters of the Pacific coast of Mexico when the next name on the list comes to mind. Why? Well, mainly because most computer models are agreeing that a tropical cyclone may form after Beatriz leaves the scenario.

GFS:


UKM:


NOGAPS:


As always, we have to keep an eye for trends to see if the futuristic scenario could become a reality.

[dhweather]

I noticed that last night - after Beatriz fades off, another one comes
into play.

Man, that's gonna really stink if the EPAC goes up 3-1

[HURAKAN]

I noticed that last night - after Beatriz fades off, another one comes
into play.

Man, that's gonna really stink if the EPAC goes up 3-1

Don't worry, last year before August 1st we were losing 4-0 and then we won.

[clfenwi]

Noticed this looking at 18Z NOGAPS and GFS yesterday. Went back and looked at 12Z NOGAPS, GFS, and UKMET. And then looked at their 00Z runs when they came in last night.

They all want something to happen in the vicinity of 10N 100W (although the earlier NOGAPS runs had something happening further east), but hitherto they have not painted a coherent or consistent picture.

The 06Z GFS spins one low, kills it off, then brings up another one a bit west of the previous one.

SSTs are certainly there for something to happen. Upper air conditions seem favorable for at least part of the six day window. Enough to warrant keeping an eye on...