Possible tropical cyclone sooner then we thought?

[dhweather]

I don't see this happening. Convective feedback strikes again?

[HURAKAN]

I don't see this happening. Convective feedback strikes again?

Now we don't have to worry much about viruses or something like it, now is "the convective feedback."

[Guest]

What are you talking about???? This is just my own forecast. Just looking at the data/models an or satellite. In other obs in making a forecast. In the Cmc has been forecasting some for the past 3 days now.

Thanks for asking.

My point is that the NHC is seeing the same models that you do and there must be a reason why they are not flagging it. I am therefore suggesting that there is more to be considered as part of a forecast/prognosis that simply comparing models. At the end of the day the human brain and one's academic skill and working knowledge of the tropics and other weather data must be balanced with the projection by the models to come up with a forecast.

Hope that answers your question.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So many people make forecast not just me. Please don't think the nhc is the only ones...Because other people that have knowledge enough to do so do.

[weatherlover427]

As you might well know, we have many professional and amateur mets on this site that make their own forecasts - people such as Derek Ortt, senorpepr, MWatkins, donsutherland1, etc. Not to mention people like Matt and myself (but I hardly do it compared to other people ). There are many types of people who forecast, you don't necessarily have to have the AMS Seal of Approval to do it.

[dhweather]

Matt is heading in the right direction now. He's putting thoughts and
reasons for why he thinks something will happen.

Now he might be losing too much sleep over blobs, but we are all guilty
of blob watching.

[clfenwi]

OOZ CMC went touch stronger than its previous run, putting a 1008 low off North Carolina at 00Z Sunday. It is still the only model going with that closed low type of solution though.

00Z NAM/ 06ZDGEX seems to bring the precip to South Carolina in an inverted trough. 00Z NOGAPS has a similar idea but doesn't bring the precip in either.

As usual wait for another model cycle and see if any of this comes together... I would rather wait and analyze those closer than try to make a guess out of what I've only casually looked at (spent more time looking at the Pacific basin than Atlantic last night).

[gatorcane]

I don't start getting interested in the Tropics until August when the hurricane season really gets going. I don't see the point in tracking baby storms that we see in June and July (many years nothing happens until August) that produce some rain and a little wind.

[Trader Ron]

I don't start getting interested in the Tropics until August when the hurricane season really gets going. I don't see the point in tracking baby storms that we see in June and July (many years nothing happens until August) that produce some rain and a little wind.

Chris,

I agree 100%. The season starts with me on August 15. Can we have an early season? Of course. We had five named storms in 2003 and 2004 before August 15.

[clfenwi]

Kind of hard to learn anything (like picking up what sort of biases the models have, what conditions develop a storm, what don't, etc) if one doesn't pay attention the whole season.

The case of someone trying to learn something about tropical forecasting and only paying in August/September when something big has spun up would be like a coach telling a quarterback to not worry about those measly September/October games and focus only on the championships.

Not everyone wants to be a tropical expert, some do just watch it when it's especially active. There is certainly room in this forum for both types.

[Trader Ron]

I was shocked to see that SEVEN "A" storms are retired. We can have a bad early season.

[clfenwi]

I was shocked to see that SEVEN "A" storms are retired. We can have a bad early season.

And when you think of 'A' storms being retired, you think (or at least I did, anyhow) 'Well, yeah, storms like Andrew (August storms), their sesons had quiet Junes and Julys'. Bu three of those (Agnes, Audrey, Allison) were actually June storms.

[clfenwi]

Well the 12z CMC is a break from previous runs in terms of track (and in where development occurs). It puts a 1008 low off the mid-coast of Florida at 00Z Saturday and brings it down to 1006 on 00Z Sunday before bringing it inland in the vicinity of South Carolina.

In terms of how it moves the precip, it resembles somewhat the NAM/DGEX (which has been consistent in moving it in an inverted trough).

12Z GFS seems to have similar ideas, but (mysteriously to me) stalls the precip off the coast rather than bringing it in.

The CMC seems to think that the system is going to get favorable conditions over the Bahamas... something that does not seem likely at this time, which makes the NAM look more realistic.