11:30am TWO

[Brent]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on June 22, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated
with the tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea this morning.
While upper-level winds are expected to become less favorable for
tropical cyclone development over the next day or two...this system
could cause locally heavy and potentially hazardous rains over
portions of Hispaniola as it moves slowly west-northwestward.

A weak...and non-tropical...area of low pressure has developed in
the eastern Gulf of Mexico along a broad zone of showers and
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are extremely unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.

Forecaster Franklin/Knabb

[dhweather]

"extremely unfavorable" - think they don't want folks worrying about that
system?

[HurricaneJoe22]

why no mention of the SW Caribbean....anyone else think this area looks interesting...some intense convection going on

[HURAKAN]

"extremely unfavorable" - think they don't want folks worrying about that
system?

If things get worse, then it will be ultra unfavorable.

[yoda]

"extremely unfavorable" - think they don't want folks worrying about that
system?

If things get worse, then it will be ultra unfavorable.

Ultra unfavorable? That sounds like something like one of my professors said: It is extremely unlikely, unfavorable, and supremely not chance in hell likely that you will know.

[Zadok]

what is going on off of Panama?

[dhweather]

MM5 seems to think something will come out of that area in the next
week or so:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

MM5 seems to think something will come out of that area in the next
week or so:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

That is very interesting but let's see trends of this and other models about it.

[dhweather]

I agree Luis - MM5 has been on it for two days, but no other models are
picking it up as of yet. So we get to hurry up and wait.

[vbhoutex]

Did you also notice the littel spin up heading into S TX? Maybe there will be something for us to "watch"-though nothing of consequence. We could use the rain all over S and SE TX!!!

[Skywatch_NC]

Did you also notice the littel spin up heading into S TX? Maybe there will be something for us to "watch"-though nothing of consequence. We could use the rain all over S and SE TX!!!

Same here in central NC...mid to late June and rain becomes a scarcity!!

[clfenwi]

The 21 Jun 00Z run makes me wonder if the model has issues. Look at how after 84 hours it proceeds to develop the system with the center over land.

The 22 Jun run is a bit more reasonable (i.e. it develops it over water through the entire run).

Don't know what analogs there are for something building up so close to land like that.

[melhow]

Is is me, or does this MM5 run look really similar to how it developed Arlene...

[clfenwi]

Is is me, or does this MM5 run look really similar to how it developed Arlene...

No not just you, to me the two ( http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation
and
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation
)
certainly bear resemblence in their handling .

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If it spins up something down there... where would it go next??? We don't have the same set up in place that we had with Arlene. There is no big trough to the west or ridge on the east to funnel her into a single direction.
What are everyone's thoughts on this... if it even pans out to be a storm in this location down the road... where does it seem likely it will go?